Now the outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections is not so important since the opposition failed to join and be united, which means that they would not mind much if the situation that we had during the years 2003-2007 repeats after the elections too. Due to this people have become less interested in elections despite the fact that some opposition branches say that everything is not lost yet.
In fact, people are not interested in the outcome of the elections. They don’t care whether the first place will be given to the Republican or Prosperous Armenia parties, whether the ARF will receive 6 or 12%, which of the opposition parties will reach the barrier of 5% and whether this will be done by drawing lots or honestly. In a word, the only institution that will be interested in the figures will be the statistics department. The fact is that the future parliament will not differ much from the existing one. In other words, these elections are not so important from the view of our future. In this framework there is only one thing that might interest us, which is whether this will be done slightly or by using power forces such as watering machines, ballot stuffing techniques, shootings, etc.
The authorities understand too that this is the priority issue. That is why they often say that they will do their best to make it sure the elections are organized in fair conditions and comply with the international standards. Furthermore, maybe some of them even believe in that and really want to organize free and fair elections. They have done everything in advance; they have taken under control the TV broadcast (by the way, they did it very successfully), the opposition has failed to unite. The only thing they have to do now is to take people to polling station for voting and make it sure the participation level is normal. All the other technical things will be done by the commissions. Also it is important that following the elections the opposition does not take people out to streets, and even if it does, it is important not to use power forces.
In a word, it seems that this time the authorities have decided to violate the elections beforehand and in compliance with the law. What does this mean? The law does not prohibit arrangements with some opposition big branches and promises that they will get more than 5% if they fail to unite with the others. Many of them don’t keep it in secret and openly say that they did well and it is up to the opposition to fail that plan or not. Otherwise, let’s take the issue of financing. Theoretically a businessman may provide financing for opposition parties, but just the next day the taxation departments officers will check up the activities of their business and it will be done legally.
It is clear that it is not so easy to create an opportunity of violating elections legally. The environment of fright and the application of financial and administrative tools have been created during these 10-12 years, which final goal is to imitate elections in a festive environment like in the Soviet times. During the Soviet times elections were not violated, neither there were techniques like ballot stuffing or giving electoral bribe. Everyone knew who to elect in their precincts. At the end of elections the commissions published figures, after which everyone was happy. Furthermore, international election observers would not register any violations. The only thing they could report is that the participation level is overstated, i.e. the same thing as they did following the recent Constitutional referendum in Armenia. This is what we mean by “legal electoral violations”. This is done by using the law as a tool to create an adequate environment for reaching their goal. As for the international organizations and monitoring missions, they don’t observe the environment, but the process of elections.