Recently different political circles (both governmental and oppositional) of Armenia have started to conduct secret analyses for the Russian political elite, based on which the Russian are supposed to have idea of what’s going on inside Armenia. The main logic of such analyses is to help the Russians figure out, who to bet for in order to form an Armenian government, which will be favorable for them.
We have a few of such analyses at hand, which have already been sent to the Russian order-givers. The surprising thing is that the handwriting of those so-called “reports” is the same. Same is with the final of the materials, where the political forces of Armenia, who serve the Russians and who are somehow members of opposition parties or some civic groups, such as the “Anti-criminal” initiative, ensure Russians by saying that if they support them, the Armenian government will from then become favorable for the Russians.
According to those materials during the coming Armenian elections, which the authors call “games”, the Russians have not made any new “bets” yet in terms of who they are going to support. Thus it becomes logical that their candidate stays Serj Sargsyan. However, according to Armenian predictors on one hand Moscow is afraid of getting rid of Sargsyan, on the other hand it hesitates to rely on him. As potential candidates of the bet the authors find Stepan Demirchyan and Artashes Geghamyan, who they think are Russia’s favorites. But in their reports the authors state that Geghamyan and Demirchyan have slightly become unstable and are not yet totally “polarized”. Geghamyan is most frequently criticized in those letters. The main “message” about him is that “despite his high rating in the population Geghamyan has become unpredictable and is now branded a politician, who’s constantly playing certain unclear games with the authorities.” Meanwhile they think that the rating of the chairman of the “New Times” party, Aram Karapetyan, is not enough to establish a pro-Russian society.
After this “weighty” preamble the authors move to the essence and prompt the Russians, who they can “bet” for. They mention two groups of political forces – traditionalists (nationalists) and left-oriented.
In the second group the author included Garnik Margaryan (Fatherland and Dignity), who’s quite recently showed up, the Intellectuals’ forum, Aram G. Sargsyan’s Democratic Party and Hnchakyan party. “Russian support may as well receive national orators like Manouk Gasparyan,” reads the letter, sent to Moscow.
The authors of those “messages” informed Russia that if the latter makes the right bet in Armenia the authors may also play a significant role because as a final result the current government will be eliminated and politics will proceed in a more legal environment. These letters, which pretty much remind us of Brazilian soap operas, where the loving couple (in this case Russia and Armenia) after long sufferings finally have happy end, make Russia make the right bet as soon as possible.
According to the allegations of the Armenian “envoys” of Armenia the main participants of political processes will be the Prosperous Armenia Party together with other pro-president parties, democrats (west-oriented), conservatives and the left-oriented parties. But the envoys are having a hard time to mention, who’s going to win in the list. That’s why they are requesting Russia’s support.
Prior to getting the response letter of Russian “brothers” they also informed certain facts about the inner political life of Armenia. For example, they write that certain foreign and inner political forces succeeded in dividing the governing wing into two parts. One of those wings is Prosperous Armenia – the presidential wing, the other one is Serj Sargsyan’s Republican Party. The purposes of Kocharyan’s wings are the following – provide the physical, legal, economic and political security of the mentioned elite as well as provide their immunity (not to be arrested later). In the opinion of the author this force will be supplemented by other forces, who are supposed to express intolerance to the Karabagh clan. And as a result Kocharyan fluently “stays out”.
Nevertheless, according to them, in order to withstand Kocharyan’s “basis” Prosperous Armenia and Serj Sargsyan’s Republican parties, Tigran Karapetyan with his ALM TV company, Artur Baghdasaryan, Samvel Babayan, Gurgen Arsenyan and Dashnaks will fight together. The author calls them “favorable oppositionists”, who don’t have hatred to Kocharyan’s elite.
Moreover, the authors of the letters besides presenting the parties also show their roles in further political processes of Armenia. According to this forecast, Artur Baghdasaryan with his “Legal State” party will join the “Anti-criminal” movement; Gurgen Arsenyan’s ULP will more covertly join this initiative. Concerning the Dashnaks they might be involved in order to somehow maintain their role in government and control resources. Former Defense Minister of Karabagh, Samvel Babayan, being the “second echelon” of criminality will perhaps join the initiative to take back the whole power of “first echelon” criminal Serj Sargsyan.
Now let’s speak about the next wing – the republicans, where according to one of the letters there are “serious contradictions” between Serj Sargsyan and Prime-Minister Margaryan. Other letters mention that Sargsyan is the victorious one in conflicts. “Nostradamus” Armenians ensure that “by being in the power pyramid for many years Sargsyan succeeded in providing certain means, which will bring him victory in the coming elections.”
The Armenians have also managed to inform the Russians that the Republicans are most concerned about the anti-criminal movement. Let’s remember that this movement was launched in January 2005 by US deputy state secretary, Elizabeth Jones. Jones said, “It’s on behalf of Russia’s interest to ensure that the territories of Abkhazia, South Osetia and Karabagh are stable and safe in order to eliminate corruption and criminal separatists there.” This is stated in the US CRS Issue Brief for Congress report (January 19, 2005), which outlines the common points of Russia’s and America’s interests. It also added, “Russia may have a considerable leadership role in the solution of those issues.” The authors of the letters call the anti-criminal movement an “American campaign” order. This campaign is profitable for certain representatives of the political elite of Armenia because it raises their reputation in the eyes of the people. Very often the members of the “Anti-criminal” movement confess that they are ashamed to be present at the meetings of the movement because its activity gradually becomes more “unreasonable”. Moreover, a number of serious oppositionists are leaving the movement. They create other movements because they understand that the anti-criminal one doesn’t make sense.
But most importantly, none of the authors of the letters clarifies why the Republicans (not the other wing of government) are most worried about the anti-criminal movement. And it makes even more understandable the real essence of Armenians’ activity in terms of conducting Russia’s order. They avoid the truth. Because it turns out that the criminal element is only in one party; others are angels. Moreover, it turns out that Sargsyan and Kocharyan, who worked together for years, are enemies now. However, everybody knows that their political aims are the same. Under these circumstances the writings of Armenian authors as though the relations between the Prosperous Armenia and the Republicans are so tense that the two parties may soon use “gun firing” against each other, is a total bluff and naivety, which the local oppositionists are impatiently waiting by killing their boredom.
This report also includes other parties of the political field. In order to “touch the spirit” of Russia they mentioned that the US and the West are first of all going to support those political parties, which are most “aggressive and bully”. As such aggressive parties they mention the ANM and Aram Sargsyan’s “Republic” party. By the way, Artur Baghdasaryan is also included among the mentioned people, who prior to this was connected with the Prosperous Armenia (according to the same author). This means according to them Baghdasaryan is going to play a double game – both on government and opposition sides. As mentioned in one of the letters Raffi Hovhannisyan-Vazgen Manukyan duet has less energy and may also be entered in this coalition. According to the analysts the Americans may also involve pro-Russian forces for the achievement of their goals trying not to make Georgia’s and Ukraine’s mistakes. Shortly said these letters outline the interests of both Russia and USA. But nothing is said about the interests of the Armenian people and no one knows what will have to us once Russia “steps foot to Armenia” again.
The important thing here is not whether these prognoses are right or wrong. The most important thing is the slave’s psychology. It’s when the Armenians are in cue to convince Russia (as well as USA) that Armenia is their state and who’s going to be the “king”.
P.S. An interesting fact. According to media, Ashot Manucharyan plays a great role in both “Anti-criminal” and “Civil disobedience” movements. And if we closely follow political processes we will see that they in this regard very much correspond with the mentioned letters. Perhaps this is just a coincidence.