Late last week, there was no longer any fortune-telling (cards, coffee residue, etc) about whether or not Georgian President Mikhail Sahakashvili would leave for Minsk to participate in the CIS countries’ summit. While celebrating the third anniversary of the victorious “Revolution of Roses”, the president announced to journalists that he will make the CIS countries summit in Minsk interesting. He stated that the main purpose of his trip was to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I hope that after that meeting, the Georgian-Russian tension will ease,” said Sahakashvili, however he did mention that there are other interesting meetings foreseen in Minsk, which are also important for the bilateral relations with other CIS countries and for future Georgian-Russian relations.
The last words of the president are not by chance. Moscow still hasn’t approved the official meeting, saying ‘we’ll see how it goes’. However, it hasn’t rejected the meeting either. Finding itself in a two-way situation, Sahakashvili is forced to leave for Minsk and whatever he says to the other presidents about the significance of the meeting, that will simply be an attempt to keep his image. Perhaps the relations with Moscow don’t improve, in other words, perhaps Putin, whom Sahakashvili claims that he can come to terms with, decides neither to come to terms nor to meet eye-to-eye.
However, Sahakashvili really needs to talk to his Russian homologue. Despite all the guarantees of the Georgian officials, claiming that they don’t need the tension on the part of Russia, it’s not like that. Let’s not even talk about the closing of the border of one side, the embargo on Georgian products and other inquisitive steps taken towards Georgia and it appears that the most important step is not taken. I’m talking about the gas. The monopolist/gas supplier, the “GasProm” company threatens to increase the price for gas up to 230 dollars per 1000 cubic meter. In fact, the Russian side once again made it clear that it could leave the price the same-110 dollars-under one condition-if it’s able to purchase the major tube. Until recently, Tbilisi was ready to give it to “GasProm”. As Georgian state minister Kakha Bendukidze said, it doesn’t matter who the owner of the major tub e is because Georgia doesn’t have its own gas, as if Russia can always “pressure” at any given time because it’s the gas provider. However, first America and then the Georgian parliament went against that and it all ended just like “GasProm” wanted it to end. Now they are trying again. The U.S. hasn’t changed its role on Georgia’s dependence on gas from Russia. Washington is even ready to agree to have Georgia, which depends on help from America for many things, purchase gas from American taxpayers from Iran. Tbilisi has been leading negotiations with Tehran for the past couple of months, however, those negotiations haven’t ended yet. As Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli said, the situation may become clear by the end of the year.
What’s also unclear is whether or not Azerbaijan can help Georgia. It appears that Baku’s gas is not enough and Azerbaijan is forced to purchase gas from “GasProm”. It’s hard to picture Azerbaijan helping its strategic ally without hurting Georgia’s relations with Russia. That’s why it’s not possible for Azerbaijan to take that risk.
What do the Georgian authorities have to say about this? They want to quickly settle everything with Moscow or start calling on the people to gather as a nation in order to resist the terrible “Northern Southern” enemy, which is trying to take control of Georgian lands and prohibit Georgia to enter NATO or the EU among other things. Georgians are already used to hearing these calls. But are they ready to follow up on those calls in the winter? The events of February, when Georgians were left without gas for a couple of days due to the gas pipeline explosion, showed that the pathetic patriotism is one thing, gas and warmth are another. The thing is that during that time, everyone knew that it was only going to last a couple of days until the remodeling of the gas pipeline. But how long will they have to wait now?…That’s why Sahakashvili is going to Minsk: Perhaps he will be able to talk to Putin and come to terms…