The political field of Armenia is in a rather unusual situation on the threshold of the 2007 parliamentary elections. There has never been a time when the Armenian authorities haven’t had an oppositionist and have the opposition equal to zero.
This situation, according to politicians, is unprecedented and is illogical because it’s hard to create a situation when the opposition has nothing to do and can’t have someone lead even the small protests of the people. That’s why NGOs have taken on the responsibility for a while now. If it weren’t for them, then they wouldn’t lose the opportunity to lead the protests against the bill on “Alienation of Property for Social and State Needs”. Meanwhile, there were many different financing NGOs behind that movement. One or two oppositionist deputies had shown up to “get something out of it”. As you analyze the radical, oppositionist strategy, you get the following: the longer the opposition goes along with its agenda, the higher the ratings of the current Armenian authorities will be and the authorities will have a higher chance of coming to power once again. In fact, recent surveys show that the once saviors of the opposition were at the bottom of the list and the percentage rates of the undecided electorate continue to rise. The current 35-40% undecided electorate is a rather serious resource for the political parties who actually want to come to power. If we take into consideration the fact that most of the undecided voters are those who are disappointed in the opposition, then we can deduce that the authorities won’t have any problems fighting to come to power like they did in 2003. Whereas there was a moment in 2003 when the opposition got lazy and didn’t take control, if the decline of the opposition continues at this rate, the authorities will simply come to power. This time nobody will be able to say that they took “random” people to the polls from the basements of brandy factory. So, what we have is a situation where the opposition is doing everything it can to provide a smooth transition for the authorities to come to power again. It’s hard to think that the opposition is doing this on purpose because the only goal that has never changed for the oppositionist partay leaders is to become president of Armenia. To think that all the oppositionists are bought also wouldn’t be right because there are some activists who are honest and there are others who have quit taking bribes a long time ago and have changed their image. So, this brings us to the fact that the opposition that has declared itself radical, measures how radical it is by cursing the authorities. Their plans keep changing at a rather high amplitude. The amplitude depends on what the oppositionists have read that day “The Gazette for not depending on” or another analysis of the Sratford University. Let’s recall how the doctrine of the most radical of the radicals-“National Unity” party-ended and how Artashes Geghamyan started waving the flags of the European Union after making Armenians move towards Russia. This is one of the minor details of how quickly the opposition changes its plans and ideology. So, one of the most general arguments is that the current authorities have chances of winning in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections and the opposition is too. Or if we change the saying “Yet another couple of oppositionist figures and the authorities will reach victory.” Despite the de ure declared slogan, claiming that the opposition is fighting against or for the authorities, the flow of events show that the opposition is de facto fighting against itself. As for getting ready for the upcoming elections, I must say that in this case there is a lack of a type of opposition. Judging from the different opinions of oppositionists, they are preparing for the elections the way that they are supposed to. It turns out that the opposition is simply waiting for something to happen to make the Armenian Republican Party and “Prosperous Armenia” go at each other, thus the power will be on one side and the opposition will take control. Of course, the opposition is a little worried over who will be the first to take control. After all, if it’s only about a race to see who will get the power first, then the one that moves the fastest is going to win and currently the opposition is trying to find out who’s the fastest among them. You get the impression that the opposition has purposely decided to not do anything so that, based on its estimations, it can speed up the explosion of the authorities from the inside. In reality, this estimation is not only primitive, but also ridiculous because if there are people among the opposition who have understood that very often the ones standing aside win after the clash of two forces, then the Republican party and the “Prosperous Armenia” party also understand that. It doesn’t matter if there are certain conflicts between the parties; it’s clear that that’s not going to bring to the desired victory for the opposition. So, until now, with its strategies, the current opposition is going to sit and wait for a long time. This is not the end of the tragedy of the opposition. The tragedy or, better yet, the tragic/comedy is that the main goal of the current opposition is to create a better image for the current authorities which, as I already stated above, will make it easier for the authorities to come to power again. However, there is an opinion that the opposition has actually started to like being the “opposition”. Practice has shown that “working as an opposition” is a rather profitable business, but that’s a totally different story.