Georgia will not pay Russia $230 for 1000 cubic meters of gas. This is the gas price for Georgia fixed by Gazprom. The Prime Minister of Georgia, Zurab Noghaideli, made an announcement about Georgia’s refusal to buy gas at such a high price. In his opinion the increase of the gas price was a political decision because it stayed the same for all the states of the region. “We will buy gas from Russia at a price that is suitable for the region,” stated Noghaideli. Moreover, the Prime Minister said that 230 USD is not the final price and there might just be negotiations on that. And then he immediately added that the negotiations would make sense if there is a hope for change. This means that there is no actual hope that the negotiations will continue, at least, the negotiations that Georgia wants to lead.
Noghaideli assumes that the negotiations can be successful with Turkey, Azerbaijan and Iran, where the representatives of the Fuel and Energy Ministry have already been sent. Although Turkey’s presence in this list is certainly surprising, since Turkey doesn’t have sufficient energy resources, Georgia will probably receive gas from Turkey only in the event of extreme deficit. Regarding Iran and Azerbaijan, that’s really a different story. About two weeks ago the Georgian Minister of Fuel and Energy held a special conference, during which they announced that Georgia is actively negotiating with neighboring states for gas distribution, new contracts are being signed, therefore there is no need to be scared of Russia’s possible pressure. However, the statements of the Prime Minister regarding the necessity of negotiating with Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan create an ambiguous situation. It’s interesting to know whether the negotiations were really productive or the Minister says what he wishes would be the best.
One more thing: Gazprom has chosen a price $230 by accident. According to the information of Iranian mass media, that’s exactly how much Tbilisi paid Tehran for gas in February. That’s when the gas pipeline exploded. Now, what price is Iran going to demand for the exportation of their “blue fuel”? Won’t they want the same price they wanted in February? We think it’s quite possible considering the relations with Moscow, which can be considered partnership. Iran may demand $230 with pleasure and without resistance, since it’s quite possible that the “Georgian gas bills” will be once again paid by USA. What a relief! Iran will be receiving that much money from its #1 enemy – USA. As for Azerbaijan, although Georgia has included that country among its few strategic partners, Azerbaijan may also offer an analogous price as Gazprom. Of course, transit privileges are fixed here, which will lead to price reduction. However, the problem is that the Azerbaijani gas may not be enough during the coming winter. The next issue is the possible pressure on the part of Russia, where Baku also receives gas from, although it was its own gas.
Many issues regarding gas are not clear yet. One thing is clear for sure. In spite of the assurances of the authorities the issue is still not solved. This is what the former Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili asked the people to pay extra attention to. “The Georgian government can’t just get the burden of paying the increased gas price to Russia and blame the country by saying that this is the price Georgia has to pay for being a liberal country. The authorities should have gotten ready for winter and the possible problems a long time ago. I’d like to know what other alternative ways of gas importation is the government going to figure out? Everyone must have access to this information. We must know what’s really going on because we have the right to know.”
These questions remain unanswered. It would be wrong to consider the speech of the Georgian President Sahakashvili made during the International Forum on National Global Security in Monaco as an answer to those questions. During the speech he said that Georgia will not apply sanctions to Russia. “Georgia only wants Russia to follow the “rules of the game.”