It’s time. Constantine Zatoulin spoke on behalf of Russia and said that Armenia should orient and have an approach for the Russian-Georgian conflict, meaning that Armenia is faced with a decision to make-to support Russia or Georgia in the conflict. Of course, it is clear that “protest” is not a political category; however, it is impossible to explain what Zatulin said in another way. It turns out that Russia does not like the fact that Armenia has a neutral approach connected with the Russian-Georgian conflict and does not support it.
Usually, “protest” is conditioned by arguments, the Russian deputy said that they did a big favor for us connected with the gas price. In fact, they didn’t do that for free. They used the fact that Armenia was in a difficult situation and took more from Armenia than the actual balance of the gas price was. They not only took the fifth energetic block of Hrazdan from Armenia, but also 40 kilometers of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline.
However, this is not so important. The important thing is the fact that the Russians believe that they have really done a favor for us Armenians. In other words, they are following a saying said by the “new Russians”: “The more you step on a girl’s feet, , the more you will dance with her”. Now they are asking Armenia to make a choice. Furthermore, they told Armenians not to consider the interests of Georgia first, but the interests of Armenia. In other words, they think that it is in our interests to have conflicts with Georgia (we understand that they mean the interests of Russia by saying the “interests of Armenia” since it is clear that outposts can’t have their own interests).
Of course, all this information is just based on emotions, nevertheless, the reality is the fact that Russia has placed an ultimatum and now we have to think very well and make pragmatic calculations in order to not be mistaken. In this case, it doesn’t matter whether the Russians are good for us or not. We have to find a pragmatic solution and in the given case Armenia has three choices: advocate Russia, advocate Georgia, be neutral. What will each of these options give Armenia?
1. Advocate Russia. In fact, this means to advocate Russia openly, make announcements, if needed support Russia’s solution of the conflicts of Abkhazia and Osya (recognize their independence if necessary), furthermore, if necessary use Javakhk for certain purposes. What kind of benefits may there be? Positive results: the Russians may start treating Armenians better in Russia. Negative results: Armenia may lose its only path towards Europe, Russia through Black Sea, the relations between West and Armenia will get worse, and the Armenians in Georgia will fall into a bad situation (in Javakhk, Tbilisi and Batumi). Based on all that, it will be an error to advocate Russia.
2. Advocate Georgia. It really means to advocate Georgia openly, make announcements, recognize the territorial integrity of Georgia and be against the blockade in Abkhazia and Osya. What can this solution give to Armenia? Positive results: improvement of the relations between Armenia, Georgia and the West, open a path towards the Black Sea. Negative results: to advocate the Georgian policy in the framework of the conflicts of Abkhazia and Osya means to use double standards, which will make the foreign policy of Armenia much complicated. Besides that, the Armenians in Russia (over 2 million) will be faced with problems, which will have an influence on the Armenian economy as well. In spite of Georgia, Armenia is not able to resist that pressure since it does not have any alternative ways out of the situation. In other words, this policy will be an error too since it will create many problems for us.
3. Continue with the neutral policy: It means to wait until the Russian-Georgian conflict is settled, sometimes complain to Russia for not considering our interests and sometimes make Georgia understand that Armenia can use its political leverage in Javakhk as well, however, Armenia doesn’t want to do that. The only positive result of this solution is the fact that it may not lead to negative results. In other words, the situation of Armenia is like keeping silence and watching a conflict between police and terrorists and hoping that they may find a solution, since Armenia can’t advocate any of them. In a word, this is what Armenia is doing now.
We wonder whether Russia will let us go along with that policy and be neutral. In this framework we don’t have to be afraid of the “ultimatum” of Zatulin since Russia has done bad things to Armenia. The only thing that they haven’t done yet is pressure Armenians in Russia, however, we believe that they will not do that. They will not do that not due to the fact that we are their “strategic” ally, but due to the fact that it will create a “scandal” in the international community. Furthermore, things are not looking too good for Russia at the international level recently due to the poor relations with Georgia.
So, now it’s Russia’s turn to make compromises and develop a mutual understanding with Armenia.