This is what economist Edward Aghadjanov said concerning the policy aimed towards fighting against inflation implemented by the current authorities. The latter says that the mentioned policy affects the economy.
Edward Aghadjanov once again discussed the issue and results of currency exchange rate changes in “Pastark” club. The economist petitioned the journalists not to believe in the tales of the Central Bank, claiming that the changes are conditioned by economic factors. As for the real reasons, the economist believes that they are just financial mechanisms. “By stealing the transfers, we are stealing from our own economy”, said the economist.
Edward Aghadjanov thinks that it is not effective to fight against inflation with the help of monetary policy and has several recommendations: “If the amount of money is more than the amount of goods and services, it is necessary to help the economy, which may lead to the increase in the capacity of goods and services, thus the inflation tendency will end”.
In contrast to the previous press conferences, this time Edward Aghadjanov didn’t mention many statistics. When speaking about exchange rates he brought only one example: in 2003 the exchange rate of one USD was 580 dram and the price of one kwt energy was 4.3 cents; now as a result of the exchange rate changes the mentioned amount for one kwt of energy has become 6.5 cents, i.e. it has increased almost twice.
As a result of these factors the export capacity of our country has fallen down by 3.6%, in addition, the foreign trade deficit has increased by 50% compared to last year. Production is falling down. “The domestic production is being replaced with import, thus the domestic producers are being moved out of the market”, said Edward Aghadjanov and added that in normal countries export covers 60-70% of the given GDP, nevertheless, in our country it makes up 15-16% of GDP.
“If things go at this rate, Armenia will register a double-digit negative growth”, said the economist. However, the authorities “don’t care” about the negative processes in the economy. The economist is concerned about this the most.
According to Edward Aghadjanov, the reason is the fact that there aren’t analysis and research centers that would help the government. The economist says that there are research and analysis centers in Russia that provide information for the governmental bodies and they debate on economic issues. However, such things are not common in Armenia. “Have you ever seen Karen Chshmarityan and Vardan Khachatryan debating on economic issues?” asked the economist.
The economist says that the reason is the fact that there are not a lot of economists in Armenia. “The bad thing is not the fact that we don’t have mining resources, but the fact that the political and economic “intelligence” of Armenia is at a low level”, said Edward Aghadjanov.
We wonder whether the authorities will take into account the point of the opposition if (for instance, “National Unity”, “Rule of Law”, etc.) they invite specialists from abroad and show the authorities issue-based facts showing the failures of the economy instead of speaking about the exchange rate changes in the parliament and criticizing the government. As for this, the economist said that the authorities should have a good political will so that they can revise their policy.
However, if the words are followed by professional explanations as well, it would be good pressure on the authorities to revise their policy. However, the economist thinks that that’s impossible and the oppositional parties will never join for that purpose. They are busy with other problems such as “who cheats on who”, etc. According to Edward Aghadjanov, no one wants to make deep and conceptual analyses.