As we know, Armenia has normal relations with two of its four neighbors (Georgia and Iran). In fact, the political situation with Georgia and Iran is getting worse. Iran may soon face international sanctions, which will affect Armenia as well.
As for Georgia, the situation is worse there. The Georgian government has army forces in Kodor canyon and the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict may re-start at any moment (both in Karabakh and in Georgia the ceasefire agreements were made in 1994).
As for the Kodor canyon, it is situated in the eastern territory of Abkhazia, but is not controlled by Abkhazian army forces. It is not controlled by the army forces and police of Georgia either. That territory is a part of Svanetia, which is populated by Svans, who create problems too. The canyon used to be controlled by a power represented by ex-president of Georgia Edward Shevardnadze and consisted of 1.500 people. The Georgian government brought army forces to the canyon with the purpose of getting rid of this group.
Russia has always been interested in that territory too. The problem is that a while back Chechnya terrorists had basements in that canyon and crossed the border from there and attacked the federal powers. The situation was so complicated that Russia had to bomb those territories, thus it bombed the territories of Georgia, which created an international scandal. During a conflict, a group headed by Shamil Basaev used this way to reach Abkhazia and fight there. Currently the situation is the following: the members of that group have escaped to the mountains, the army forces of Abkhazia are ready to attack, the leaders of South Osya have said that if needed they would help Abkhazia and there are shootings in the canyon of Kodor. In fact, the powers in the zone of Russian influence (Abkhazia, Osya, Shevardnadze and others, etc.) are joining and being mobilized and there is no debt that the mentioned process is stipulated by Russia. With this Russia simply wants to make Saakashvili understand that the embargo on wines is not the end yet and there are other ways how to keep Georgia under its control.
As for Saakashvili, he doesn’t have time to wait. The Western powers are helping Georgia intensively to improve its military capacity, but Georgia does not have enough time to wait for 2-3 years in order to be able to recover its territorial integrity by using military power. Besides that, they are losing their resources; people had many expectations from the revolution. And, in fact, the Georgian-Abkhazian war may re-start sooner than Saakashvili wishes.
What will happen to Armenia? First, the small conflicts between the US and Russia are harmonic and they start and end at the same time (Karabakh, South Osya, Abkhazia, Balkans, etc.). As for the current situation, it is time for Russia to take necessary steps because the US is busy with the war in Middle East. From this view Armenians are lucky because Russians didn’t try to create problems in Javakhk and the conflicts of Svans were enough for them. This means that they left Javakhk “in the reserve”. On the other hand, if the Georgian conflicts restart, Russia may use this opportunity and try to solve problems both in Georgia and in Armenia.
In fact, there is a new page dedicated to Armenia on the Russian web pages dedicated to Ukraine Georgia.
This page pays special attention to the political environment inside Armenia. We hope it is not going to be so dangerous for us.