Recently, the Karabakh conflict settlement is being discussed actively. Several days ago the leader of NDP, Vazgen Manukyan said that time is on Karabakh’s side. Later he tried to cover up for what he said by saying that he meant the fact that after surviving as an independent state for over 15 years, Karabakh will not agree to join Azerbaijan.
He is right from this perspective, even though it was clear back in 1993-94 that it was impossible and Karabakh would never agree to join Azerbaijan. This is the only thing he is right about. As for his ideas in general, to say that time is on our side looks more like a beautiful lie than a justified idea. On the other hand, time could be on our side.
The problem is that during the past ten years the population of Karabakh didn’t grow and those territories were not populated; this is a very important factor. Even though Karabakh had a good economical growth, however this factor can’t be compared to that of Azerbaijan, the only comparison we can draw is between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but not Karabakh and Azerbaijan. As for these marks, the Azeri economy is growing at a faster rate than that of Armenia. As to whether time is on our side or not, it isn’t and one of the main reasons for that is the fact that ten years ago Karabakh used to be a participant in the process of negotiations, but now it is not.
So what are the results that we have now? During the past ten years the territories of Karabakh were not populated, the population of Armenia didn’t grow, Karabakh was not internationally recognized as an independent state, it is not participating in the negotiations process, etc. This is the reality.
The problem is that such an approach is more like a plan for future programs, rather than an estimation of what has happened in the past. I mean if time is on our side and has been on our side so much that there is no need to settle the conflict, we can leave it as it is and time will strengthen our positions in the future too. As for Vazgen Manukyan, he said that he wanted the conflict to be settled as soon as possible. On the one hand we see that there is a logical contradiction here, but on the other hand we understand that. He had to say that time is on our side (otherwise he had to agree that Levon Ter-Petrosyan was right in 1997 and they were wrong not to agree with him), but as he realizes that from time to time our positions are getting weaker, he wants the conflict to be resolved as soon as possible.
Now let’s speak about keeping the “status-quo”. Armenian society doesn’t really picture that and thinks that it is kept due to the policy of Armenia. However, what we have is a different reality.
Why don’t the 12- year negotiations lead to anything good? It’s because Azerbaijan rejects any theoretical recommendations for the conflict settlement, according to which Karabakh may not be a part of Azerbaijan. This means that the “status quo” of Karabakh is not kept due to the policy of Armenia, but rather the Azeri policy. In other words, Azerbaijan is more interested in keeping the “status quo” of Karabakh. It is clear why they do so; the only way they can have Karabakh back is to start a new war and they need time to get prepared for that. As for the Armenian authorities, they proudly say that “the ball is in their field and it is Azerbaijan’s turn to play”. As for their approach, they don’t play, they are waiting, and while waiting they are interested in keeping the “status quo” of Karabakh. In times like these, the only thing we can do is wait until Azerbaijan gets ready for attack.
In fact, our authorities and society have a choice to make: either they let Azerbaijan get prepared well and then act or make it act at this moment without getting prepared very well. I think, that the authorities and political powers should discuss this issue.