Two days ago, the OSCE co-chairmen made their second joint announcement of this week. According to them, the purpose of the mentioned second announcement is to give details concerning the main principles of the Karabagh conflict negotiations.
The mentioned announcement seems like the first one that the co-chairmen made on June 22 and contains information about the work of the co-chairmen during the last seven months and the principles of the recommendations presented to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Based on that, the mentioned principles are as the following, “Taking Armenian military forces out of the Azeri territories surrounding Karabagh, meanwhile being careful with Kelbajar and Lachin (including the passage between Armenia and Karabagh)”. The difference between this announcement and the previous one is that this announcement contains information concerning the connecting passage between Armenia and Karabagh as stated in the announcement of the Armenian foreign affairs ministry following the co-chairmen’s first announcement. The mentioned announcement of the RA foreign affairs ministry said that the co-chairmen had revealed only a part of the negotiations principles and hadn’t informed about the connecting passage between Karabagh and Armenia. They didn’t mention what Karabagh’s status would be before the referendum. Anyway, after the mentioned announcements there have not been any other clarifications yet. Even though this announcement seems no different from the first one, however there is one thing that differs from the first announcement: the expectations of the co-chairmen. In their first announcement they said that they were not able to propose recommendations, state issues and work any more and added that they were not sure that any new recommendations could lead to any positive results and that the two presidents were the only ones who would be held accountable if a new war starts. In spite of this, the co-chairmen said the following in their second announcement, “We believe that the recommendations taken into consideration over the past two years are the best way to settle the conflict”. Besides that, they said that the time had come and the presidents should take steps towards establishing peace and settling the conflict. In other words, whereas the first announcement was pessimistic, the second one was positive. What really happened during the last two weeks that made the co-chairmen expect the same thing? Rumor has it that this has to do with the recent announcements of the foreign affairs ministries of the “Great Eight” countries and the forthcoming meeting in Saint Petersburg. On June 29, a week after the co-chairmen’s first announcement, the foreign affairs ministers of the G8 met in Saint Petersburg, after which they made an announcement concerning Karabagh as well. In the mentioned announcement the ministers petitioned the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to have a political will and prepare their nations for peace and not war. They also said that the presidents should reach an agreement on some issues so as to be able to sign a peace agreement by the end of this year. The co-chairmen say that this had to do with the G8 too. They said that the deputy foreign affairs ministers of their countries said to the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan during their visit to the region that reaching a final agreement before the planned G8 summit “would serve as a firm basis for international financial contributions and other show of support to solve post-war problems in the region and establish peace”. In other words, the upcoming G8 summit will determine the future of the conflict negotiations.