– OSCE Minsk Group American co-chairman Matthew Bryza and the rest of the co-chairmen revealed the secrets of the Karabagh conflict and proposed their principles, however, Bryza’s secrets and principles don’t differ from those of the co-chairmen. Intermediaries recommend dislocating the Armenian military troops based in the Azerbaijani territories surrounding Karabagh, paying close attention to the Kelbajar and Lachin regions, which will lead to the dislocation of forces in these territories. Karabagh’s status will be determined based on a referendum to be conducted later on. Until then, peacekeeping forces will be allocated in Karabagh. What do you think about this? The co-chairmen also announced that they had paid visits to Azerbaijan and Armenia and have informed the presidents about their decision to resolve the conflict this year.
– I don’t think that those are the final decisions and even the Karabagh authorities have declared that 2006 is not the year for the conflict resolution. It really isn’t because the document, which Matthew Bryza and the Minsk Group co-chairmen revealed, is not enough for us to believe that the presidents will sign under a document stating those principles. In my opinion, Azerbaijan is not ready to sign that because it doesn’t want to resolve the conflict by having Karabagh conduct a referendum, as well as have an autonomy right in Azerbaijan. So, those secrets are really being revealed for the international community. Azerbaijan has only one issue: to make it so the Armenians of Karabagh leave the region so they can instill their territorial integrity. In other words, no matter how unfortunate the proposal is for us, it’s even more unfortunate for Azerbaijan. One way or another, the international community, along with the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen, state that a referendum in Karabagh will determine if Karabagh is internationally recognized. Neither the current Karabagh authorities nor the population has made the international community and Azerbaijan suspect that. It’s clear as to what’s going to happen, whether the referendum takes place in a year or after ten years. We can already predict the results which, of course, don’t benefit Azerbaijan. That’s the reason why the Azerbaijani delegation is currently doing everything it can to not sign that agreement. Taking into consideration Azerbaijan’s decision, I don’t think that anything will be signed in 2006.
– The co-chairmen said that they can no longer come up with new ways to recognize, form and prepare a final draft of the principles and that they don’t believe that the proposals made by the intermediaries during the out-of-turn meetings will lead to anything. Isn’t this already a final draft and doesn’t that mean that Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev will make a constructive proposal?
– It seems as though what you’re saying is close to the real thing because for the first time in all these years, the intermediaries are letting everyone know that they have done their job. They really have nothing to do because they can’t come up with another mechanism for the conflict resolution than the one proposed to the presidents. I am not talking on behalf of the people of Karabagh, whom this agreement doesn’t benefit at all, but rather on behalf of the world. This is compromising and clever, which may serve as a firm basis for the negotiations. The intermediaries aren’t doing anything else. They can’t come up with any other model which will slowly return the Azerbaijani lands to Karabagh, dislocate forces in the region, restart communications ties between Azerbaijan and Armenia, establish diplomatic ties between the two and recognize Karabagh internationally through the means of a referendum or a vote. This is the unique model for any conflict resolution and the co-chairmen can’t do more than that. It seems as though they have discussed everything-the state as a whole, exchange of territories and the abovementioned. There is nothing else and this is just what we need. Armenia shouldn’t get ahead of itself and think that sooner or later, the intermediaries will either recognize Karabagh’s independence, the joining of Armenia and Karabagh, or announce that Karabagh is a part of Azerbaijan and force us to go along with that. There will be no such thing and the intermediaries have nothing to propose for the time being. What we can’t agree with is the fact that they will no longer lend a helping hand to the presidents and organize meetings. The intermediaries have heated things up a little. It seems as though they have made the presidents realize that they can stop mediating for good. But I don’t think they will do that because they are volunteers working based on the mandate given by the OSCE Ministers’ Council and that issue must be discussed at the board, even at the OSCE summit because the intermediaries were formed based on the decisions of the OSCE boards.
– In your opinion, 2006 is not the year for the conflict resolution, however the intermediaries claim that this is the year because we have the 2007 parliamentary and 2008 presidential elections coming up in Armenia and this will not be the right time for resolving a conflict. In addition, the intermediaries place high emphasis on the Great Eight summit to take place in July in St. Petersburg. Do you still claim that their proposals are not final and that 2006 is not the final year?
– We can say that the same final draft, if there really is one, has been presented to Azerbaijan. It’s quite possible that the G8 summit will touch upon the Karabagh conflict, but those discussions are not at the public level. Judging from the ties between the foreign ministers of the G8, I think that the eight great powers of the world will discuss that issue openly. To tell you the truth, I’m pessimistic about the presidents signing an agreement in 2006 based on Azerbaijan’s attitude. Azerbaijan simply doesn’t want to recognize the fact that Karabagh’s status can be determined by a referendum or a vote. Perhaps Azerbaijan’s mentality will change before the summit and they will agree to signing the agreement and Karabagh will have the opportunity to see just how ready the Armenian side is. But as of today, Azerbaijan is not ready to sign and is doing everything it can to falter the process.
– So, we could discuss that if Azerbaijan accepted it?
– When we find out Azerbaijan’s approach, then we will know how the Armenian side’s as well. By the Armenian side’s approach I mean defending Karabagh. We can go further in detail as soon as we know that Azerbaijan respects the fact that Karabagh has an autonomy right.
– After revealing the secrets of the conflict, Azerbaijan made more war declarations, to which vice-chairman of the National Assembly Vahan Hovhannisyan said that Armenia shouldn’t give Azerbaijan “time-out” because it’s using that time to strengthen the army and it’s time for Armenia to get serious. Do you share that opinion?
– No, I don’t think that Azerbaijan is making war declarations. What I mean is that I don’t think Azerbaijan is ready to endanger the country and the entire region with another war because that would be a huge risk. The most important thing is that there are no chances for the restart of a war. Besides, who will Azerbaijan declare war on? If it’s going to declare war on Karabagh, then that means it recognizes the independence of Nagorno Karabagh. If it’s going to declare war on Armenia, then that’s simply nonsense if we look at it from the international law perspective because Armenia is not officially in a state of war with Azerbaijan. In that case, Azerbaijan will be recognized as an aggressor. So, this is really a complicated issue and even the Azerbaijani can’t come up with a solution. As for its strength, Azerbaijan has always been strong both in 1988 and 1991. Azerbaijan had oil resources back then too, the country earned much profit from oil sales and it had a good army. To be honest with you, the spirit of fighting helps you win the war, not oil resources or money. The people of Karabagh are defending their homeland and their right to live in the homeland. I just don’t understand why the Azerbaijani soldiers are going to fight on our soil? There’s a difference here. Of course, we must take into consideration the fact that Karabagh is using its foreign financial contributions for producing more weaponry instead of economic reform in order to see which side produces more-Karabagh or Azerbaijan. But that concerns the international community, which must make the Azerbaijani understand that the profit gained from the sale of natural resources shouldn’t be aimed towards armament, rather towards solving issues concerning refugees. Nobody can predict the outcome of war, even God. Azerbaijan thought that there wouldn’t be any Armenians in Karabagh back in the days of war and that they would be able to resolve the Karabagh conflict just like that; alas, they saw what happened.
– Is there a chance for war?
– I don’t think there’s a big chance now than there was back in 1995-1996. But anything is possible as long as that peace agreement remains unsigned.
– After the secrets of the negotiations were revealed, the Armenian opposition blamed the Armenian authorities for not providing benefits for Armenia. What do the people say in Karabagh? Do they also blame the Armenian authorities?
– The purpose of the opposition is to criticize the authorities. In contrast to 1997-1998, the current opposition doesn’t have its own plan for the conflict resolution. The opposition isn’t talking about that in the press or among themselves. Shavarsh Kocharyan and Aram Sargsyan were the only representatives of the opposition present at the press conferences held in Karabagh in April. Their opinons about the Karabagh conflict weren’t any different from those of the authorities. I don’t think that Karabagh complains about Armenia’s decisions. This is my opinion. I truly value the approaches of the President of Armenia and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia regarding the resolution and I believe that the proposed principles are not against Armenian and Karabagh national interests.