– June 4 is expected to be the next meeting of President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. Do you expect to see any results in the Karabagh conflict resolution this time?
– The Karabagh conflict has always been the cornerstone of Armenian politics since Armenia’s third declaration of independence. The international community declared 2006 as the year for the Karabagh conflict resolution and despite the failed meeting in Rambeau, the U.S. took the matter into its own hands and is trying to lead the conflict to the finish line. The international community put up with Robert Kocharyan’s administration and went along with two meeting dates. It didn’t care about many other issues for the sake of one major issue-the Karabagh conflict resolution. The conflict must be solved in four months and if the Armenian authorities don’t take advantage of their opportunities and resolve the conflict within that period, then they will simply be looked down on by the international community and mean nothing in Armenia’s internal political life. I don’t think that the presidents have any reason to avoid the conflict resolution and postpone it.
– During their last meeting, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen announced that it is time for the presidents of both countries to come to terms on the principles of the conflict. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Vartan Oskanyan announced that the presidents will not sign any document during the meeting in Bucharest, rather they should agree on the principles. In your opinion, will both sides actually come to terms on the principles?
– I think that a lot has changed since the failed meeting in Rambeau. It would be nice to see them come to terms. The Azerbaijani side has already agreed. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already appealed to the UN Security Council with the request of making plans for the return of refugees and distribution after the document is signed. “After signing the document” means that Baku is ready to resolve the conflict. I. Aliyev’s visit to the U.S. and the reaction from the international community means that the Azerbaijani president will not go along with the same scenario in Rambeau. The goal of the unprecedented, representative delegation of the observer countries to the region was to get the “yes” from Kocharyan. I am certain that they got their “yes”.
– So, this means that Kocharyan and Aliev no longer have to evade the conflict and have to take certain steps during the upcoming meeting.
– Kocharyan and Aliev don’t have the chance to maneuver. The conflict is hurting the entire international community and the Southern Caucasus region. There is no economic development, no cooperation in the communications field and there are cosmopolitan issues. The world looks at us as two countries that can’t resolve conflicts starting from the last century. True, the resolution is painful, but the conflict must be resolved sooner or later. If it isn’t resolved, then Armenia and the rest of the regional countries will suffer the consequences. Let’s say we live isolated for another two years. What’s next? There is no outlook. That’s why the Karabagh conflict must be resolved fast. The Armenian authorities simply don’t have the resource for resolving the Karabagh conflict and that’s why there is so much pressure on the two presidents. Unfortunately, today, Armenia is only talked about when there are accidents and they even try using those accidents to put pressure on politics. I believe that the announcements made by the Russian state television network, stating that the reason for the A-320 plane crash was the shortage of fuel, is like pressure on Kocharyan. Perhaps that pressure has to do with the current stage of the Karabagh conflict resolution process? In other words, they are trying to make us understand that “Armavia” is a clan, which can kill 113 people in a plane in order to make money. There is also some pressure from the West-the three co-chairmen announced that 2006 is the last deadline for the Karabagh conflict resolution. The pressure is adding on. With all this going on, I see a danger after hearing the announcement of Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov, when he clearly announced that if there is any pressure on both sides, then that may lead to the opposite outcome. What is the opposite outcome? I see a threat after hearing that-the opposite of peace is war. My grandfather used to say: a man must never be afraid to fight, but the smart man must do everything he can not to fight. Back in 1992-1994, we weren’t afraid of war and with that war, we created all the conditions necessary for establishing peace. If a new war starts, then that will be the result of the absurd politics led by both the presidents and the authorities.
– Many believe that the recent events in Armenia’s internal politics were aimed towards the international community so that the authorities can once again use that as an excuse to evade resolving the Karabagh conflict. Will it really be possible to avoid the conflict resolution this time?
– I don’t share that opinion. I think it’s quite possible that a country like Armenia will find itself in a non-standardized situation. We were very close to the Karabagh conflict resolution back in 1999, but then came October 27, when we didn’t have a National Assembly chairman, a prime minister and it was simply impossible to resolve the conflict in times like those. As a result, the conflict resolution was postponed. But this won’t work now. Today, we don’t have a National Assembly chairman, but the National Assembly is capable of functioning, although it’s a formality. Fortunately, Armenia still has a prime minister. I don’t think that Kocharyan will go ahead and disband the National Assembly just to avoid the conflict. This will be more like a childish act and everyone has already calculated those steps.