– What do you have to say about handing over the Hrazdan electricity station’s 5th energy block and the right to construct one section of the Iranian-Armenian gas pipeline to Russia?
– Kocharyan has been going against Armenia ever since he was elected as president. Everyone knows that he is even thinking about decreasing our power in the country. Let’s just take the recent “transactions”, which are as dangerous for Armenia as, let’s say, the Kars-Akhalkalak-Tbilisi railway. It’s clear that the risk of losing power is getting bigger day by day. The recent transaction was nothing less than sacrificing Armenia’s energetic security and the state. It’s worth mentioning that one day before selling the energy block, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia Vartan Oskanyan had announced in front of the EU special representative in the Southern Caucasus Peter Semnebi that Armenia plans on joining the new EuroAtlantic energetic security plan, which both the U.S. and the EU are currently working on and drawing Armenia’s attention. Here we have a classic example of “complimentary politics”-say something but do the opposite. On one occasion, I have said that Armenia isn’t Armenia’s fore post, but rather the present day Armenian authorities. These authorities are currently serving Russia and have set out a plan of turning Armenia into Russia’s attaché land, where Robert Kocharyan plans on becoming the Russian general/gubernator. In other words, Armenia is turning into one of Russia’s subjects. The worst thing is that it will take a lot of time for the next authorities to get back the key elements of statehood. It’s quite possible that some of the transactions will have severe consequences.
– But the authorities claim that the transaction served as a way of “alleviating the gas price increase and lowering gas prices for the people”.
– There is no logic to that. This is what Nero says: “Let there be a flood, just as long as I’m safe.” As a result of that transaction, Armenia will spend nearly 60 million dollars within the course of three years (Kocharyan and his administration pocket ten times more money from citizens) after which, we will pay a higher price for gas. In fact, this is all going on while the people were actually ready to pay a high price for the gas, in contrast to the authorities; they realize that statehood is much more precious. During this period, other countries are going to develop their economies, they will be able to pay the gas price; as for us, we are once again going to dig a hole for us after three years. What guarantee do we have that the authorities will compensate the 60 million dollars if the gas prices go up on January 1, 2009 and multiply gas prices? It’s strange to see how Armenian pro-government and oppositionist forces are not responding to this transaction, while the international media is.
– The opposition says that it wouldn’t want to go along with the principle “the worse it gets, the better for us” and that the people must speak out. But it seems as though society is rather indifferent to all this. What can you say about that?
– If the political figure or party doesn’t follow up on the developments of the country and respond in case of danger, then it really goes along with the principle “the worse it gets for the country, the better for us”. As for the society, I tend to differ because the people actually care about the future of Armenia. Oppositionist forces must be the first ones to have the people’s voice be heard and if it isn’t heard, the people are not the ones to blame. That explains why the people, who have been showing disrespect towards the authorities for a long time already, now don’t really care about what the opposition has to say neither at the National Assembly nor its out-of-turn meetings. We have the people who have good judgment, but a bad political system. I am referring to the political field in its entirety, but mainly focusing on the opposition. It is very important for the opposition to get together and fight in a situation like this.
– In your opinion, is it possible for the opposition to become a stronger force?
– Yes, because the society is much more mature than the authorities and the opposition put together. I have no doubt that sooner or later Armenia will have the political force that it has always wanted. Only time will show and the sooner the better. This is the only path to take. The current political system can’t solve the problem of creating a new system of values. The sense of forming alliances, which is quite common among politicians, is starting to fade away. Political figures will no longer be able to solve issues through the means of alliances.
– How do you picture the creation of a new political force? Should there be new individuals or political figures, which will unite and spread the same ideology?
– I am talking about the formation of a new kind of opposition, which must first be based on creating a new system of values and make sure the country is democratic. There is no democracy among political parties of Armenia. How can they establish democracy in the country when they aren’t democratic themselves?
– You mentioned that the authorities are going along with the “Let there be a flood, as long as I’m safe” principle. Don’t you think that the authorities will change for the better?
– As long as there still isn’t any internal factor for changing the quality of the authorities’ power, the external factors can’t really do much to have the people form the new authorities. Since there was no internal factor in Serbia, Milosheyevich was able to keep power. There is much pressure on Belarus from outside, but there also has to be an internal factor. In contrast to Armenia, Belarus already has an internal factor, but it’s not enough. As long as there is no internal factor in Armenia, the country needs Kocharyan’s prolonged power, help from the outside and continuity. When the internal factor comes up sooner or later, the political field will be just how the people want it to be.
– Ilham Aliev is going to pay an official visit to the White House. In your opinion, how will that affect the Karabagh conflict resolution?
– A new and very significant stage has begun for the Karabagh conflict resolution. The U.S. looks at the Karabagh conflict resolution taking into consideration the current events going on in the Southern Caucasus region (the Iranian crisis, Turkey’s minor role, war in Iraq). Basically, the U.S. is mainly focused on the developments in the region-energetic security, resolutions of the three regional conflicts and, as a result, solutions for issues concerning democracy and security. These are the reasons why the U.S. didn’t permit Kocharyan and Aliev to lead the Karabagh conflict resolution to a detour. Today, the process in Prague is taking a different route. It turns out that in the 14 year history of the conflict, for the first time ever, the U.S. is making significant proposals in order to increase its role in the region. Aliev’s visit to Washington is part of the process. I think that Kocharyan should have gone to Washington to sign the “Millennium Challenges” contract. That just goes to show you once again that Kocharyan avoids having any contact with the international community.
– Will the U.S.’s activation help progress the Karabagh conflict resolution?
– The U.S. is pretty optimistic about this. However, I am not too optimistic, although I hope everything goes well.
– How long can the conflict resolution remain unsolved?
– We must understand that prolonging the resolution pictures two scenarios: first, the restart of a war, which of course will not lead to a final resolution, and secondly, the Karabagh Daito (obligatory peace establishment), which benefits neither one of the conflicting sides.
– It seems as though the proposal made by the three co-chairmen of the OSCE doesn’t appeal to both sides. That was clear during the negotiations in Rambulle when Kocharyan and Aliev couldn’t come to terms regarding some key points. What do you think, will the societies of both countries approve the key points?
– The meeting in Rambulle showed once again that neither Kocharyan nor Aliev want to resolve the conflict because both presidents want to keep the status-quo in order to keep power; that’s why they always try to come up with reasons to prolong the process. Meanwhile, they have all the opportunities to resolve the conflict through compromises and mutual agreements. As for the societies’ reactions, the resolution proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group is pretty realistic and I think that both societies will approve of it if it is presented well. What’s even more advantageous is conducting a referendum in Karabagh and so far there hasn’t been any objection to this. It’s worth mentioning that the return of refugees must be voluntary. Besides that, the forces in Karabagh that are going to make way for the international separatist forces must be dislocated of military bases. Many people are talking about the peacekeeping forces. However, we can’t really see a resolution in the future without those international peacekeeping forces. If they say that they are against having international peacekeeping forces, then that means they are against resolving the conflict.