The head of the CB says that the inflation capacity will be formed on the basis of the gas price increase expectations. According to him the CB has made calculations according to which this increase will result in an inflation of 1% on prices of the basket of goods till the end of the year. They have made these calculations on the basis of the goods included in the basket of goods. T. Sargsyan is very optimistic.
But we should note that the gas price will be increased as of April 10 and then only after that will we be able to make logical assumptions. All local producers use gas, so this increase will also influence the prices of other goods too. But the recent developments don’t prove the calculations of the CB. The prices of some goods have already been increased-for instance, sugar. As for the sugar business, most of it is concentrated in the Armenian-Indian company “Flitfood”, which belongs to MP, businessman Samvel Alexanyan. It is illogical to say that the gas price increase first impacts the import, because local producers feel this difference sooner and more than importers. Regarding this we tried to get information from the accounting department of this company, but they said they couldn’t give us any information. The prices for some other imported goods have been increased too, for instance “Calve” mayonnaise (its price has been increased up to 300 dram from 250). The prices for local food and production have been increased too. But the prices for bread, agricultural goods, alcoholic and soft drinks, construction materials and even the fruit that is imported from Georgia have not been increased so far. As for construction materials, there is an interesting fact here. Three months ago the prices for cement increased and different oligarchs implemented different price regulation policies. The cement produced by the “Mika Cement” company belonging to Mika Baghdasarov increased by 400 dram (1600-2000), and the price for the cement produced by the “Ararat cement” company belonging to Tsarukyan Gagik – for 100 dram (1700-1800).
A lot of things will change after April 10. First of all the transportation prices will increase, which will bring to the increase of prices of other services and goods. But as we see some businesses have already started to “come close” to April 10. If this process of illogical and logical price increase continues the optimism of Tigran Sargsyan will become a dream that never comes true.