The Karabagh conflict was an excuse to start a state overturn in Armenia back in 1998, claiming that the first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan wasn’t solving the conflict in favor of Armenia. The Karabagh conflict still hasn’t been resolved even eight years after the first president’s resignation. The present day Armenian authorities summed up the president’s recent public announcements as a “war declaration”. Although Armenian citizens keep on fearing the restart of a war, the Armenian National Movement (which really should be the one to worry) is keeping itself isolated from the political field. “168 Hours” interviewed vice-president of the ANM administration Andranik Hovakimyan about this isolation.
– In your opinion, what were the reasons that the meeting in Rambulle failed?
– We’ve been kidding ourselves by trying to resolve the conflict for the past eight years. Both sides make it look like they’re doing something, but everyone knows that just like back in 1998, the Karabagh conflict is used as a means to prolong the term of power. Armenia and Azerbaijan benefit from the status-quo and keeping their power at the same time. The neutral status of both countries gives the authorities and army the opportunity to have a greater influence on politics and economy in each country respectively. It’s clear that the authorities’ “careful optimism” is not going to lead to anything. In 1998, Armenia, Karabagh and Azerbaijan had differing point of views and the three countries decided to leave the conflict aside and start solving other issues, if of course, they actually had the desire of resolving the conflict. If there is no desire, then one says independence while the other says territorial integrity and that’s where the negotiations take a detour. It’s more complicated than we think. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan wants to resolve the conflict and are doing everything they can to keep the status-quo.
– How long can they keep the status-quo?
– They can keep it until the international community actually pays attention to the situation at hand. The international community has many ways of obligating both sides to come to terms, especially if we take into consideration the corruption and fraud in Armenia and Azerbaijan. If the international community takes matters into its own hands and tries to resolve the conflict, then Armenia will surely not benefit from it. There is another variant that Azerbaijan is currently working on. Azerbaijan is currently strengthening the country’s economy, increasing military expenses, which will help them resolve the conflict through war.
– But it looks like the West is starting to pressure both countries. Recently, especially after the Rambulle meeting, Western countries have paid attention to the lack of human rights in both countries and they feel that they have to help Armenia establish democracy starting from the bottom and making their way up the ladder. Are those the kinds of pressures we are talking about?
– I think that we can look at all that as a beginning of something. If we look at the evaluations based on the constitutional amendments referendum in Armenia and the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, we can say that we haven’t really started anything.
– In your opinion, are the sides the only ones to blame for the prolonging of the resolution, or are there other reasons?
– Russia, for example, is always going to do what it can to keep the conflicts in Karabagh, Osetia and Abkhazia neutral. That gives others the opportunity to obligate. However, that’s obvious since Russia is leading its politics based on its national interests, especially since Armenia is considered to be Russia’s victim. Russia is trying to have a greater influence on the conflict resolution.
– But recently, Russia has been declaring the opposite, that it is actually ready to help both sides in resolving the conflict.
– Russia has lost a lot in politics recently. Putin didn’t really do what he said that he was going to do. That was just small talk. I think that as of today, nobody (including the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group) have decided what steps they’re going to take.
– Robert Kocharyan announced that if Azerbaijan stops the negotiations, then Armenia will officially recognize Karabagh’s independence. Even the authorities considered that a “war declaration”.
– Unfortunately, those problems are solved neither in Armenia nor Azerbaijan. Kocharyan and Aliev are not the ones to decide; they are told what to say or do. It’s obvious that both sides are making war declarations. Armenia organized the public meeting on February 28 to show the international community that the reason that they are not resolving the conflict is not because they don’t want to, but rather because there are internal problems and the societies are not ready.
– Do you think that a new war is highly possible?
– Back in 1998, the ANM had agreed that making compromises is the equivalent to a war. We are still of that opinion and say that if things go at this rate, then the restart of war is very possible. War can even start by the authorities. Armenian and Azerbaijani societies are certain that the presidents will not declare war because that won’t solve anything. The restart of a war will mean that the authorities didn’t come to terms and if it does really start, the authorities of each country will be responsible for the consequences.
– The ANM left the political field and came up with the state overturn as an excuse, which was a result of the Karabagh conflict. If a war is highly possible, then why isn’t your political party speaking out to the Armenian authorities?
– It’s clear that the Armenian authorities are making war declarations for themselves. But the process is still in progress and we have to wait and see how the next phase will start, what the authorities will do and how the international community will react. After that, we can think about taking serious steps. It’s not right to make analyses when the process hasn’t even started. But other political parties have already started getting active. Let’s not forget that it’s pre-election year and each political party is focused on who will make it to the National Assembly. This refers to both the authorities and some oppositionists. Besides that, Armenian economy is currently going through changes what with the gas price increase, inflation; meanwhile, the authorities are trying to improve the social status with war declarations.