Although we can’t see the outcome of the Karabagh conflict, however, some people actually believe in it.
During the past two to three months, many international experts and analyzers have been analyzing and predicting the outcome of the Karabagh conflict settlement. The recent article entitled “Russia’s shady empire” printed in the “Washington Post” is one of the many analyses. The article touches on the Karabagh conflict among other topics.
According to the authors of the article, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain Anna Palacio and German “Marshal Fund” expert in the U.S. Daniel Tweining, “the West must demand that Armenia and Georgia close the Russian military bases, propose a “Marshal Plan” for the entire Southern Caucasus and lead those countries to European integration.” The authors also believe that the U.S. and Europe have to go against Russia’s “shady empire”. According to them, the West has to help “post-Soviet countries striving for freedom to liberate themselves from the Russian supremacy”. This has to be done quickly in countries going towards democracy, countries where “conflicts based on separatism reign supreme due to Russia’s politics and the presence of Russian military bases.”
“After the Cold War, Russian authorities went ahead and built a shady empire in neighboring autonomous regions and help progress the “cold wars” in southern part of Eastern Europe and the Southern Caucasus… That kind of politics is making the countries in the region feel insecure,” say Anna Palacio and Daniel Tweining. In regard to the Karabagh conflict, both are of the opinion that Russia is doing everything it can to have more political and military influence on the Karabagh conflict.
“Western governments must help the conflicting sides agree with Armenia handing over the occupied territories to Azerbaijan while Karabagh remains autonomous, due to the fact that its status remains undecided,” say the authors of the article.
According to another analysis on the Karabagh conflict, prepared by graduate of the Georgetown institute and specialist in security and Caucasus cosmopolitan issues Talekh Ziyadov, Armenia and Azerbaijan are not ready to sign an agreement on the Karabagh conflict this year. The author also states that the Rambulle meeting was not the first failure of the negotiations. However, this failure may put an end to any peaceful settlement in the near future. Ziyadov believes that “status quo” is the best solution for the Karabagh conflict while Armenia and Azerbaijan go through elections until 2008.
“However, even by keeping the “status quo”, Armenia will be left out of the energetic and transportation projects, while Azerbaijan will triple, or even quadruple its military budget with the power-generating exports,” says Ziyadov.
According to him, this will lead to the point where Azerbaijan will come up with a different conflict settlement than it has now. Based on Azerbaijan’s self-esteem and the demands set on refugees and the internal forces, according to Ziyadov, will force Azerbaijani authorities to use manpower to settle the Karabagh conflict once and for all. Ziyadov says that when that time comes, the question will not be whether or not there a war is coming, but rather when the war will start.
In contrast to this, American co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group Steven Mann made some pretty optimistic announcements yesterday in Baku regarding the Karabagh conflict. Mann announced that spring 2006 is a “crucial” time for the Karabagh conflict negotiations.
“We believe that we can achieve more in 2006,” said the American politician and added that he plans on meeting with president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev and foreign minister of Azerbaijan Mamedyarov during his two-day official visit to Baku. It is worth mentioning that Mann is accompanying adviser to the U.S. state secretary Daniel Frid on European and Eurasian issues during his work visit.
Last week, speaker for the U.S. State Department Sean Mcckomack said that Frid will meet with both presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan with the purpose of discussing the aftermath of the negotiations in Rambulle. It is also worth mentioning that the European Council’s political relations committee will discuss the Karabagh conflict status during today’s session in Paris. It is expected that president of the European Council’s subcommittee on the Karabagh conflict Lord Russel Johnston will make a speech during the session.