Did “Kikos” die?

08/03/2006 Babken TUNYAN

A couple of days ago, “ArmRusGazard” appealed to the Public Services Coordinating Committee about raising the gas prices. Of course, everyone knew that that was going to happen sooner or later. But they weren’t expecting it to happen like this.

First, let’s find out how the people found out. “HyeLur” (Armenian News) read the headline so quickly as if it was just another piece of information. But the gas price is one of the most problematic issues for the country. If it wasn’t, then Kocharyan wouldn’t negotiate with Russian president Vladimir Putin two times in a row.

Whereas once it was a prediction, now the Armenian people are certain that Kocharyan got nothing out of the negotiations and felt pretty bad about that.

At first sight, it may seem that that Armenians were through with uncertainties. But that was just an illusion. Things got more complicated. Whereas before we used to wonder what price the Russians would fix for Armenia, now we have one more question: how much is “ArmRusGazard’ going to sell the gas?

Many predict that the Public Services Coordinating Committee will change the fixed price of 230 dollars for 1000 cubic meters of gas. “168 hours” also thinks so. But neither the abovementioned committee members nor the president will fix the price. We all know that that structure can’t do anything on its own, just like any other structure in the republic. A certain group of people will make the decisions, if they haven’t already done so.

Armenian authorities are just pretending to do something for the people instead of actually doing it. They are actually putting on a show.

If we think about it logically, 230 dollars just doesn’t seem to fit in. “ArmRusGazard” has also accepted that price.

So, let’s do the math. Russia for sure will not sell gas to Armenia for more than 110 dollars for 1000 cubic meters. The difference is 54 dollars. A 20% value added tax will be taken from that amount. Logically, the price for 1000 cubic meters was supposed to go up by 64 dollars. Fine, let’s make that 65 dollars taking into consideration the unpredictable exchange rates. This is the maximum price, which “ArmRusGazard” had to increase. Basically, the citizen had to pay 89 dollars for 1000 cubic meters of gas because the Armenian gas company is not adding its expenses. What’s more, it will have a bigger income and obviously bigger profits.

There is one other factor. At the present, citizens of Armenia pay 130 dollars for 1000 cubic meters and this has stayed constant since March 1, 2004. Whereas “ArmRusGazard” had nothing to say about that price back then, now the company claims that it is illogical.

In 2004, the exchange rate for one dollar was 560 dram. Compared to March 1, 2004, the dollar has been devaluated by 20% and is currently 450 drams. “ArmRusGazard” gets paid in drams, but pays “GasProm” in the exchange rate. Basically, this company has gotten huge profits without doing anything and that amount has gradually gone up because the dram has evaluated at a stable rate during the past 2 years. We can’t forget that.

Now, let’s compare this with the 230 dollars. This would be too ridiculous, if not absurd. In general, this whole process began back in November during the constitutional amendments referendum when everyone was denying that the gas price will go up. Then came the endless negotiations, the stories people were telling and then minister of energy Armen Movsisyan confessed that Russia had not supported Armenia with the gas issue. What’s interesting is that there are still people who believe that the negotiations are still going on. However, there are more absurdities. A. Movsisyan also said: “As to how the gas price increase will affect the economy as a whole; that will be clear only after the public services committee’s decision.”

That’s interesting…whose decision is more important -Russia’s or the committee headed by some man named Robert Nazaryan? (especially since supposedly the “negotiations are still going on” and the final decision of the public services committee will depend on the “result”. Rarely anyone is impatiently waiting for the committee specialists to make their decision, better yet, Robert Nazaryan’s decision.

In other words, everything leads to placing high importance on the role that this committee plays (also the state) and make it appealing to the public eye. If, for example, the committee decides to fix the price at 200 dollars for 1000 cubic meters, then they will say that the state actually rejected the appeal made by the monopolistic company and thought about the people by lowerin the price. But of course, they forget to mention the fact that 45% of the share-holdings of the monopoly belongs to the state whose budget will enfold on the account of the profits of “ArmRusGazard” and the value added tax. So, more money goes to the budget and less to the people.

What’s also quite possible is that the 230 dollars was just testing the people. If all the citizens of Armenia agree to pay that much, then perhaps that will be the fixed price.

Recently T. Urikhanyan said that all his predictions turn into reality. Perhaps we can remind him when he said that Russia will sell the gas for $85 and that issue will be solved by the end of January. However, it would be better to ask, for example, president of the finance/economy committee of the National Assembly Gagik Minasyan. When he was asked about the possible gas price increase and the effects a month ago, the MP said:

“Don’t get ahead of time and don’t make it like the death of Kikos, from the Armenian fable.”

Now we ask him: Mr. Minasyan, is Kikos still alive…?