On February 20, 1988 during the 20th historical session of the Autonomous Union of Nagorno-Karabagh (AUNK) it was decided to apply to the Supreme Councils of Soviet Armenia and Azerbaijan with a request to let Karabagh be freed from Soviet Azerbaijan and AUNK and give them the right to join Soviet Armenia.
Meanwhile the session also applied to the Supreme Council of the Soviet Union with a request to guarantee the solution of the issue. This issue has not been solved within the last 18 years and Karabagh is still in the conditions of “No war, No peace”. This situation has continued for over 12 years. There hasn’t been an essential progress in the process of negotiations thus far. The international community was expecting a positive outcome from the meeting of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which took place two weeks ago in Ram Beau. However their optimism turned into pessimism and apathy after the meeting because nothing was solved during that meeting and no agreement was made. It is also a fact that since the publication of the famous article of the RA former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan in 1997, nothing was changed in the relationship of the two countries and no solution was made. The analysis of “Regnum”, entitled “Hostages of Karabagh conflict – reason of failure in Ram Beau”, is very interesting. The analysis was released yesterday. The author of the analysis is an expert of Southern Caucasus States Viktor Yakubyan. In his analysis Yakubyan mentioned that the negotiations of Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents once more proved that the Karabagh factor has a very unique character – it affects the destiny of Azeri and Armenian politicians and meanwhile stays out of the spectrum of their opportunities. “On the other hand the Karabagh factor requires inner political stability both in Azerbaijan and Armenia. It doesn’t like orange or pink revolutions. In terms of Azerbaijan the Karabagh factor is miraculous. It makes the politicians say what is necessary. It writes political programs and platforms. In this way two extremely political grounds were established over the past 15 years”, thinks the expert. Later the author of the article under the subtitle “Armenian President or Hostage of Stability” presents the first of the mentioned grounds. According to Yakubyan no political idea, which was able to make the Georgians and Ukrainians organize a revolution, would possibly get the support of Armenians if it even for a second suspects the stability and independence of the mentioned ground. “Almost all the steps of the Armenian politicians are directed to keeping foreign relations stable. Any unpredictable and unexpected policy of the neighboring states to Armenia cause suspicion and tenseness in Yerevan”, writes the author and adds that Georgia distrubs the peace and Iran is the potential target. In this regard, Yerevan would give a lot to get rid of those neighbors. No matter how unbelievable it would seem that the most stable neighbors of Armenia are Turkey and Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is stable because its politics also depends on the Karabagh conflict, and relationships with Turkey are stable because there is a metal curtain separating the two countries. “In Armenia there is an opinion that even if one day Turkey decides to open the curtain Armenians should be the ones to close it ,” thinks Yakubyan. In his opinion Robert Kocharyan, who is a very rational and cautious politician, tries his best to keep the balance between the West and Russia and most importantly the conflict of Karabagh. “We may confidently say that it would be impossible to reduce the powers of Kocharyan as long as he doesn’t abruptly change his foreign policy and keeps control over armed forces”, thinks the author and adds that the Armenian opposition will not last long if it doesn’t connect its politics with the mentioned issues. “In such a closed period opposition doesn’t have any place as long as it doesn’t risk taking the crucial responsibility of governing the country, which it is obviously not rushing to do”, thinks Yakubyan. At first sight it seems that the inner political field is calm enough. However it is not like that because the parliamentary elections of 2007 are approaching. The author thinks that the most potential successor of Kocharyan is Serj Sargsyan, RA Minister of Defense. The reason is that Serj Sargsyan is the secretary of the Security Council adjunct to the President and therefore has a control over the military forces of Armenia. Plus there is the fact that Sargsyan is from Karabagh. “To a certain extent Sargsyan is an alternative”, ensures the expert. Unlike Armenia all the parties of Azerbaijan, both oppositionist and governmental, function with the Karabagh factor. “Perhaps that is the reason why Azerbaijan is dangerous because this factor slowly gathers a critical mass and the authorities don’t quite understand what is going to happen in the end. Time shows that the Karabagh conflict can be solved by only one way. It should stop to be an issue-factor, which makes the political systems and politicians more constructive”, says the expert. “The Karabagh conflict must not be solved by methods known internationally. The resolution of the conflict, which determines how politics will be in the region, requires a fresh and innovative method”. With this the expert wraps up his analysis.