Who benefits from the “Mozdok-Tbilisi” gas pipeline explosion? There have been many opinions, better yet, accusations about this during the past couple of days.
The Russians blame the Georgians and vice versa. Nobody is accusing us of anything yet, although we don’t blame anyone either or express our point of views. However, president of Georgia M. Sahakashvili did not miss the chance once again to show his eccentric side and blamed the Russians.
“The explosion of the gas pipeline is sabotage and Russia is a terrorist,” said the Georgian president.
He doesn’t think that the explosion of the two gas pipelines (the main one and the storage), as well as the explosion of the electricity wires which took place these past days were by chance, when this all happened just when Georgia’s air temperature was very low.
“They used to threaten us by saying that they would turn off the gas; they were hinting that the electric wires will not function anymore and teasing us by asking us how we were going to survive in the winter,” said Sahakashvili.
The only proof of this point of view is that Russia wants to show that all the countries of the region depend on one another.
As expected, he did not wait long for an answer. The first to respond for the Russians was representative of “GasProm” Sergey Kuprianov.
“GasProm is doing the best it can so that it can provide gas to Georgia and Armenia as soon as possible. We can not tie what happened with politics.”
President of the committee on issues of the CIS countries at the State Duma of Russia K. Zatulin expressed himself in a rather harsher tone.
“We must look at the speech made by Sahakashvili as a speech made by a leader who can’t control himself; someone who doesn’t realize what a president can and can not do,” said Zatulin and added that if Sahakashvili doesn’t prove what he said, then he will be considered a liar.
The people of Southern Osetia not only defend the Russians, but they also point fingers at Georgia.
“Only Georgia could have done something like exploding the Russia-Georgia-Armenia gas pipeline and the “Caucasioni” electricity network,” said leader of the “Law Above Power” movement Kosta Koshte. He added: “Tbilisi needed an excuse to go against the requirements of the “GasProm” contract and find alternative means of gas supply. So, either the explosions were organized by the special services of Georgia, or it was ordered.”
It’s no surprise to anyone that Georgia is trying to find alternative means of gas supply; even M. Sahakashvili announced that and said that they have taken some steps toward that and we will see the product later on this year.
“Our people must know that our government has done a tremendous job so that there will be no more threats like this,” said Sahakashvili.
What role does Armenia play here? After all, it is the main victim. If Georgia is currently receiving gas from Azerbaijan, for which Sahakashvili has already expressed his gratitude to Aliyev, then why are we using the stored gas? Have we simply found ourselves in between two forces or are others trying to make us get the picture?
Specialist in Southern Caucasus issues Viktor Yakubyan is of the opinion that we can look at the gas pipeline explosion as a “message” to Armenia. He is certain that some forces are after one thing-to convince Armenians not to trust the Russians with gas supply. Who are those forces?
“First of all, I am referring to Georgia which is trying to diversify its gas supply system and at the same time, is trying to propagandize the suitability of the Iranian gas pipeline passing through Armenia,” says Yakubin.
According to the specialist, Armenia has two choices: either make a deal with Russia without knowing for sure if it will have a stable gas supply in the future, or take the risk and make a deal with Georgia to let the gas pipeline pass through Georgia. Yakubin believes that the latter is dangerous in that Armenia may destroy its relations with Russia, especially since Armenia has not thoroughly analyzed the relations between Armenia and Iran and the development of the nuclear weapon program.
We can understand why the specialist thinks like this probably because he is a Russian.
We tried to find out what our compatriots have to say about this. Economist Edward Aghajanov told us during an interview that he already knew for a fact who organized the explosion.
“The Russians are the ones to blame. They did it so that they can show every country, including Armenia, that they are dependent on them. It is not by chance that the highest electric power wire has exploded along with the gas pipeline. Nobody would do that without being told to,” says Edward Aghajanov.
In contrast to E. Aghajanov, president of the Armenian Democratic Party Aram G. Sargsyan is not rushing to make conclusions.
“It is hard to say as to whom the explosion of the gas pipeline benefits and who organized it,” he said.
In response to our question as to whether or not the accusations against Russia are true, Mr. Sargsyan said:
“I don’t think that Russia’s special services would do something like that. Everyone is entitled to his or her own opinion. In any case, Armenia must be the one interested the most so that it will be revealed as to who did this.”
We asked Albert Bazeyan’s opinion, however, he surprised us when he said that he was hearing about the gas pipeline accident from us (we had a telephone conversation yesterday) and he had no comment for the time being.
Judging from the different opinions, we can conclude that Armenians don’t point fingers at Russia. In response to the question as to how much Russia will benefit from the gas pipeline explosion, the only thing they said is that Russia is trying to “scare” us.
At the present, we are forced to use the gas stored in Abovyan. According to the messages received from the Ministry of Energy, all hydro-electric power stations of Armenia have started to work at a slow pace. There is no more energy sent to Georgia and the electricity has started to be transferred from Iran to Armenia in order to take care of needs. The Ministry assures that our country is not in an energy crisis. We simply have to use the natural gas wisely and use the alternative heating resources that we have. “ArmRusGasard” has helped us out with this.
Will the stored gas be enough? It all depends on when the gas pipeline will be reconstructed. According to the “Regnum” agency, work is being done 24 hours a day and the corresponding bodies have promised to get it back and running until January 25, basically, tomorrow.
Many start thinking about the fact that this all happened now when Kocharyan is in Moscow where there had to be a discussion concerning the gas price increase. According to the press services of the president, negotiations continue and they will end in the middle of February. As a matter of fact, press speaker for the president V. Soghomonyan denied the rumors spread by “Komersant”, claiming that “R. Kocharyan has accepted the final decision and has agreed to hand over 45% of the Iran-Armenian gas pipeline.”
So, there’s nothing new about the gas price increase. According to Aghajanov, the Russians may fix 70-80 dollars for 1 cubic meter.
“The 110 dollars is not the market price. If we pay 70 dollars, “GasProm” will receive a 16 million dollar annual profit and 36 million if we pay 80 dollars,” says the economist.
What’s unclear is how Georgians can look at that. One thing is clear: if that price is fixed and we still have problems with the gas pipeline, then we will know once and for all who to criticize. Mr. Aghajanov’s words and T. Urikhanyan’s correspond to one another. Urikhanyan had announced that Armenia will pay 85 dollars for gas and promised to state his source on January 25. So, we will not only wait for the news regarding the gas pipeline reconstruction, but also the clarifications of T. Urikhanyan.