“We expect to be filled with joy and see effectiveness of the Karabagh peace settlement in 2006 and we are looking towards that starting in 2005.” This was the announcement made by the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk group during their two day visit in Armenia. Generally, all the international organizations involved in the Karabagh peace settlement state that 2006 is the best time to put and end to the conflict. Foreign Minister of Armenia Vartan Oskanyan also has some expectations in the year 2006 and claims that there have been many positive steps taken throughout the year. However, former Prime Minister of Armenia, former Defense Minister and president of the National Democratic Union (NDU) Vazgen Manukyan is of the opinion that 2006 will not only be a year for the Karabagh peace settlement, but also, he believes that the conflict is in a labyrinth.
The international organizations involved in the Karabagh conflict sound pretty encouraged when making speeches. In their opinion, since there will be elections neither in Armenia nor Azerbaijan in 2006, this is the best time for the presidents of both countries to come to terms. But to tell you the truth, I don’t share that opinion because at the present, I don’t see the Karabagh peace settlement. At the present, it is impossible for Azerbaijan to consider Karabagh not part of its territory and that Armenia or Karabagh will go along with Karabagh’s status of being a part of Azerbaijan. If we look at it from that perspective, we can say that the Karabagh conflict will not be settled anytime soon.
-It turns out that Karabagh will stay with the same status, or is it possible to sign some document?
-Right now, we can only have solutions which are delayed. Basically, we give up something and win some time for an issue; Azerbaijan gets something and wins time. Now the only solution is to return the lands and delay the referendum for 5-10 years. But that does not help Armenia, but rather Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan actually thinks that time is on its side. From the democracy perspective, today these two countries have become similar. The main factor for Armenia-people’s freedom which will provide an opportunity to raise economy-is slowly going away. However, oil and economic development are moving forward. Azerbaijan estimates that after 5-10 years, it will be in a better situation; it already has the territories, it will not come to terms with Armenia; in any case, Azerbaijan will be so powerful that it will be able to get back those lands through war or pressure. That is why I see a labyrinth for Karabagh.
-So, do you think that Armenian authorities will agree to signing any document based on those conditions?
-If Armenia signs such a contract, that will hurt Armenia’s future. But no matter how bad I express myself towards the Armenian authorities, I don’t think that they will not realize what’s going on and sign that kind of contract. Even if the Armenian authorities sign under that document, it is impossible for Karabagh to sign. The president of Karabagh will protect its people’s interests.
-But Karabagh is alienated from the negotiations being led today.
-In regard to the Karabagh negotiations, Robert Kocharyan behaves just like he does during inter political life. What I mean is that he is simply being childish. He announced that “he is the “macho”, that Karabagh and Armenia will do whatever he tells them to do”. The Karabagh conflict was considered secondary and he brought the negotiations into a labyrinth. But if all of a sudden something must be signed, Karabagh will not sign and in that case the Armenian authorities will not play any major role.
-What if no document is signed and Karabagh remains in status-quo, in that case, won’t that make everything more complicated?
-If they don’t solve the conflict in 2006, then we will once again face the cold war between Armenia, Karabagh and Azerbaijan, just like there was a Cold War between the Soviet Union and the U.S. If a Cold War strikes, Armenia will have to go through major inter political changes on its way to freedom, legality, democracy and development of new economies. Although Azerbaijan needs democracy, however, that does not stimulate them as much as using the right resources.
-Do you see a “Hot War”-especially since there are announcements being made in Azerbaijan about this very often?
-If issues are not solved through peaceful negotiations, then a war will strike sooner or later. It is obvious that only Azerbaijan will declare war, but I think that Azerbaijan will not rush into anything if the situation continues like this. Azerbaijan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and financial resources develop at a rapid pace. Russia, Turkey and the West come to terms easily with Azerbaijan rather than Arrmenia. So, the Azeri really don’t need to rush; they can wait for a while. They don’t need to declare war. If everything goes like this, Azerbaijan will be in such a situation that the enemy will know that if it goes along with war, losing is inevitable.
-Mr. Manukyan, you claim that the Karabagh conflict is in a labyrinth, however, the OSCE Minsk group co-chairmen announced that negotiations are on the right path.
-A labyrinth is measured by the results and not the announcements made by the negotiating sides.
-It turns out that you agree with first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan when he says that we can never have what we had back in 1997.
-I wouldn’t say that. During these years, not only we and the people of Karabagh, but also the international organizations have realized that Karabagh can not be a part of Azerbaijan. Time is ticking slower from that perspective, since during that time it became more impossible for Karabagh to be considered a part of Azerbaijan. On the other hand, the potential that Azerbaijan has for economic development may provide the opportunity for the country to develop rapidly within the next couple of years; meanwhile, Armenia’s main potential-people’s freedom, legality, democracy-which provided our country with the opportunity to develop quickly is lessening as the years go by.
-In that case, is it possible that Armenia will experience a state revolt or change of power due to the Karabagh conflict?
-There is one important circumstance for the issue regarding Armenia. All the ideas which gave the country the opportunity to be independent, have a multi-political party system and recognition of the Armenian Genocide are in the past. Currently, Armenia can not solve any issue. The future of Armenia and Karabagh depends on whether or not there will be any internal political changes in Armenia and Karabagh or not. The Karabagh conflict may be a circumstance for change of power.