For over a week, the Armenian political mentality is focused on trying
to understand why the whole world wants Armenia to remove its military
bases from the liberated lands and why Davis’s speech was so “dirty”.
The political mentality has been divided into two parts. The opposition
thinks that the reason for the present situation is due to the poor
negotiations led by the authorities(thus, Kocharyan must be removed).
The authorities in their turn think that the reason is connected with
England’s interests in oil(thus, the speaker must be changed). So, both
sides agree that something must be changed.
The same can not be said about Tigran Torosyan, Vartan Oskanyan
and Garnik Isagulyan. They think that there nothing terrible has
happened and that everything is just fine. As for the society, instead
of analyzing and understanding the reasons for the present situation,
it continues to be amazed at how Tigran Torosyan could tell such lies
to the European Union about both democracy in Armenia and consider
Davis’s speech unlawful….
The problem is that Tigran Torosyan is doing that conscientiously.
Moreover, he thinks that he is serving the country with his good
reputation. This means that he is lying, making false comments, hiding
the reality, etc. Vartan Oskanyan is also “serving the country” by
telling lies. He announced that Armenia can develop another 100 years
without any regional integration. They have conscientiously agreed to
take on that role knowing beforehand that they will find themselves
under control of authorities and the opposition. So, their position
deserves somewhat sympathy. They are the Matrosovs for Armenian
politics today. Unfortunately, they have been defeated in a meaningless
battle.
In reality, the reason for the situation is the so-called
“complimentary” politics. A form of politics that has been made fun of
many times(totally true), but has never revealed its main goal due to
the preference of political forces. What is that goal?
In the past few years, the Southern Caucasus has found itself in the
interests of Russia and the U.S. Until 1991, the region was under the
influence of Russia, however, ever since 1991 the U.S. has been trying
to push back Russia from that region. Of course, there have been great
achievements (the Baku-Jeyhan oil-pipeline, Georgia’s “Revolution of
Roses”, etc), but the struggle continues. Since no side has won yet,
Armenia can keep the Karabagh conflict in “status quo”, but as soon as
one of the sides wins and the Southern Caucasus finds itself under
influence, then the Karabagh peace settlement will be carried out by
using severe methods. It does not matter to us who will win in the
struggle-Russia or the U.S. Whoever wins, that country will insist on
solving the Karabagh peace settlement and make it not favor Armenia.
This is where our “complimentary” part comes in. Its goal is for the
Southern Caucasus to become one cosmopolitan unit, if you will. That is
why Armenia’s foreign political decisions are always contradicting
Georgia’s and Azerbaijan’s. If those two countries suddenly decide to
be Russian-orientated, then Armenia will be forced to immediately
become Western-orientated. Otherwise, by establishing 100% dominance,
Russia will force us to confirm Azerbaijan’s totalitarian rule.
The danger facing such “complementary” acts is that according to this
scheme, Georgia and Azerbaijan will always be by the strong country’s
side during the U.S.-Russia conflict (each country can secure its
totalitarian rule with the victory of either country). Armenia will
always be forced to stand next to the weaker side so that no side will
win. This means that Armenia will get weaker little by little.
Armenia’s authorities are conscientiously going after that progressive
weakening with the hope that in the end “a new day will come”.
At the present there is no explanation for what that hope signifies. In
any case, nothing miraculous has happened in the past 700 years.