We can’t make any estimations concerning the Constitutional referendum now. And after this referendum the parliamentary elections are going to be the next important political development in Armenia. Taking into account the abovementioned, we will try to play one game, where the parliamentary powers will play with the powers that are out of the parliament.
Why this subject and why today? Based on our previous experience, politicians found new political parties just several months before elections. For instance “Rule of law”, “United labor party”, “Shamiram” and a lot of other parties were founded like this. But now politicians have already started to found parties long before the next parliamentary elections. There can be only two reasons for this. Either the coming parliamentary elections are going to take place not in two years but sooner or they want to have more “Surprising” political parties (like “Rule of law”, “United labor party”, etc.) during the next parliamentary elections and by increasing the number of these kinds of parties in the parliament make some parties there come down and make a “puzzling parliament”. Of course in this case no party can provide majority.
“White” figures
King – “The party of the authorities”
Queen – Republican Party
Rooks – “Rule of law”, “Armenian Revolutionary Federation”
Bishops – “Justice Alliance” and “National Unity”
Horses – “People’s MP” and “United Labor Party”
Pawns – nonpartisan members of the NA
“Black” figures
King – doesn’t show himself yet
Queen – “Republic” political party
Rooks – “Heritage”, “New times”, etc.
Bishops – Remains of the communists’ party, AIM, etc.
Horses – Newly founded political parties
Pawns – nonpartisan candidates
White figures play
The game of “white” figures has been clear till now. Their Queen and Rooks played very well in 2003 (“Republican party”, “Rule of law”, “Armenian Revolutionary Federation”) and the other authority powers didn’t win places in the NA. The other white figures left the relevant black figures out of the game too. Of course during these years people were interested only in the play between the authorities and the opposition. But it is clear that after the referendum a new stage will begin, where everyone will have to play their own game. And in this case besides keeping their places in the NA they will also have to win new places, because it will decide their role in the coming presidential elections (“Rule of law” wants to nominate Arthur Baghdasaryan, recently “ARF” federation announced that they were going to nominate their own candidate, Republicans want to nominate their candidate too, as well as some authority representatives and oppositionists think that Serj Sargsyan is going to be nominated too).
Black figures play
Of course the black figures got angry after seeing that the computers that Ara Abrahamyan had presented didn’t bring to any results and they will never forget their 0,4% and are going to revenge. Taking into account the fact that black figures may make a serious step with the help of newly established parties, and moreover, if we take into account the representatives of these parties (Gagik Tsarukyan, Manouk Gasparyan, Samvel Babayan, Artashes Tumanyan, Albert Bazeyan etc.) the next step may be very smart and may harm the white figures.
White figures play
If we take into account the fact that during the next parliamentary elections the number of pawns will be cut down (it will be 41 instead of the existing 56) “Public’s MP” may wish to form a new political party in order to keep their places, and the nonpartisan MPs may get membership in other parties and start chaos in the preliminary lists. They may bring up some figures, and others can strengthen their places because they are temporary figures.
Black figures play
The situation is almost the same here. But if the white figures offer up their figures a little bit later (I think it will be in 2006 just after the Karabakh conflict regulation documents of OSCE are signed. Some people made these kinds of remarks these last days), the offer made by black figures will begin just after the referendum and new figures will appear (which haven’t been shown yet but are strong enough).
White figures play
It is already clear now that the “Love games” of the coalition are going to be over very soon (Please note that Galoust Sahakyan recently announced that “the mission of the coalition is going to be over after the Constitutional referendum”). Besides that, it is spoken that Republicans are not going to make any compromises to anyone during the parliamentary elections. It is a long time already that the competitors of white figures have started to struggle for the title of their alliance leader.
Black figures play
After this long game the black figures already understand that both the authority and oppositional branches of white figures have become weaker. And in these conditions they have a good chance and possibilities to play well. Especially if we take into account the fact that some geopolitically interested countries want to see new generations in post-Soviet countries. This concerns countries that have had revolutions (Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan) and countries that didn’t have a revolution in the recent period (Poland, Rumania, Baltic countries, etc.).
Chess commentator Karen Kocharyan
One thing is clear for sure: there will be serious competition in the future. And later if it turns out that the outcome of the next parliamentary elections brings to a ”puzzled system”, it will be easier for the next president to rule this kind of parliament. Anyway this kind of development will bring to the victory of black players and the white players will lose the game. Because it will be a victory for black players to have places in the parliament, and it doesn’t depend on how many places they have, and if the existing groups lose even one place, this will be a defeat for them.