– Recently in the north of Lebanon, in Tripoli serious collisions occurred between the supports of the Syrian opposition – Sunni Muslims and supports of the regime of the Syrian president Bashar al-Asadi – the Alavines. Later the conflict moved to Beirut. Can we say that the situation that is currently taking place in Syria can also have their impact on neighboring Lebanon?
– Indeed, Lebanon and Syria are very linked to each other. The border is open there. When the influence of Syria in Lebanon (especially during the period of the civil war) was very strong Damascus was deciding for quite a long time what kind of leadership should be in the country. It means that the Syrian factor has been created in Lebanon. So there were both supporters and opponents of Syria and it’s clear that all these factors created certain cataclysm in the situation of Lebanon. It is not right to consider them supporters of Alavines. It is also wrong to connect the situation only with the latter because the supporters of the Syrian government are not only the Alavines. But also the opponents, as well as the Sunni forces led by Saad Harir and the Christian Catholics are serious opponents to the Syrian government. On the other hand, it is clear that the Hezbollah and the other communities, including the Armenian community, are quite connected to the Syrian government. It means that all this should have had its natural influence on Lebanon. But we should also add that Lebanon with its transparent border was considered a transit zone not only for weapon but also finances.
– The Russian Foreign Ministry in its statement mentioned that the forces that didn’t succeed in destabilizing the situation in Syria are now focused on Lebanon. It means that the Russian side thinks that the supporters of the Syrian oppositions by creating certain provocations in Lebanon are trying to harm the regime of Asad. What do you think about that?
– In that case let’s come to this from the far. The main goal of Asad’s opponents is the elimination of the general Shia zone. Shias include various directions of Islam, including the Alavines. Indeed, this zone includes Iran and Iraq especially after the departure of the US troops. It means that the next country of this circle is Iraq. The third is Damascus and fourth is Hezbollah. It means that the influence of Iran in the region has been reduced. And in order to debilitate this chain it’s necessary to reduce the Iraqi factor. All these factors are concretely directed against Iran and the country knows this very well. On the other hand, we should mention that due to the short-sighted policy of the US and its allies (including Turkey) Russia and China have strengthened their positions in the region (the Chinese navy has never appeared in the Pacific Gulf in the past). We should know that this is a very big geopolitical game, which is aimed at drastically changing the situation in the region.
– Let’s speak about Syria. What is happening there? Does the Syrian army war against the civilians or armed terrorist groups? What is the current situation like in Syria?
– The situation is pretty dynamic and it develops. If we take into account the fact that everything started from the impact of the foreign factor and the penetration to the territory of Syria was done through Turkey, where the camps were formed (the fighters have been trained there and the finances and weapons dispatched from there), we can claim that currently we have a black and white situation, where the majority supports the government and the minority, which clearly has an Islamic trend, supports the ones, who fight against the government. We cannot say that here the most important thing is the foreign factor. No, the internal factor has also played a significant role. Finally, we shouldn’t forget the events of 1980s, which quelled the regime of Asad in Homs and Hama – the insurrection organized by the Muslim Brothers. The government of Asad is authoritarian and there are always people who are dissatisfied of authoritarian regimes. But it would be wrong to say that there is no democratic opposition in Syria. I have recently met with a group of experts of Islam and Arab studies, who have been to Syria. They have been to Homs, Hama and other places. They have examined the situation. They disclose a totally different picture. But the pro-western media outlets mostly show explosions, gun firing and killings. Another thing should also be taken into consideration. Pro-government forces have been formed, who are not linked to the army but might be linked to special services. They use equally cruel and violent methods against the Islamists. Let’s remember that the escalation of this violence started when Slafins slaughtered 130 military recruits. This created a big wave of dissatisfaction. Today even the majority of Sunnis doesn’t wish that Salafins come to power in their country.
– Does this mean that after the fall of Asad’s regime Islamists will come to power?
– Yes, it will be so.
– In that case, why does the west support the Syrian opposition?
– I already said. In order to destroy the Shia chain.
– In Hula town of Syria, who organized the cruel manslaughter? The rebels or the supporters of Asad?
– We should evaluate who would benefit from this. The ones, who don’t like the peaceful situation and stability initiated all this. Why would Asad need to do this? I don’t think the government would benefit from this. But it’s hard to say who organized this because the information coming from Syria is very controversial. For that reason we should use logical thinking and try to understand who would benefit from the activation of the Syrian problem. Let’s remember that on June 4, Obama-Putin meeting will take place. The special envoy of the US president has already met with Putin and it was noted that the Syrian issue will also be discussed during the meeting. And this means that the old and the new president of Russia and the American president, who is going to run elections soon, are going to discuss this matter in a broad spectrum. And here Syria is only one of the points. Here, maybe Russia will yield in lieu of some other matter. Or the same can be said vice versa.
– Mr. Hovhannisyan, in Arabic states, after the so called Arab spring, will liberal democracy become possible in the Arab states?
– No it’s not possible because here people have certain concepts about justice, which come from Islam. Islam has a very egalitarian character and it offers certain strict rules and norms to life. Besides that Islam thinks that Umma (the Islamic community) is the only way to the fair society. And who is the member of Umma? – the Muslim. If we look at the matter from this angle, then the Islamists will come to power and will start to implement the rules of Umma. For instance, the parliament of Egypt the Salafins proposed a bill that the Christian should pay taxes for being Christians. It means that the Christians are being discriminated. Can we speak about democracy now? I don’t think so.
– What kind of influence can the fall of Asad’s regime have on Lebanon?
– That’s a very difficult question. Indeed, Hezbollah will have less power.
– It may cause the escalation of the influence of Saudi Arabia and its supporters of the west in Lebanon. It’s already stronger but under these circumstances it will be stronger.
– I don’t think that the influence of Saudi Arabia in Lebanon will increase. But the western influence will increase for sure.
– Will Kofi Anan’s peacekeeping project work in Syria in these conditions?
– It depends on the approach of Russia and China. I have been saying for awhile that a popular and acceptable replacement will be prepared for Asad. The latter might belong to the Sunni community. But he may be connected to the ruling elite, which will be acceptable for all the forces.
– In the event of the fall of Asad’s regime what kind of threats will the Armenian community be facing if we take into account the fact that Turkey supports the Syrian opposition?
– I wouldn’t connect that with the activation of Turkey. The Armenian community will appear in a bad situation because in that case the Christians will be persecuted.
– What will Turkey’s role be in that case?
– The goal of the Turks is the following. If they succeed in bringing a mild Islamist group to power in Syria then their role will drastically increase in the region. This is a clear goal that Turkey pursues. By doing that, Turkey is sacrificing its very good relations with Syria. But I think Turkey won’t succeed in that.
– At any rate, under these circumstances, will the Armenian community in Syria suffer?
– Indeed. The majority of wealthy Syrian-Armenians have moved their money and capital out of Syria. And the poor ones have moved to Armenia. It’s clear that the situation will deteriorate.
– How possible is the resumption of civil war in Syria?
– I think that is a low possibility for that.
Aram Sargsyan