– The government that stated to be ready to cooperate, actually refused to cooperate with ANC saying that they didn’t plan to form a delegation of envoys. Isn’t the government afraid that it will have unpleasant results?”
– If ANC forms a delegation, then we could suppose that a cautious and interest-oriented political figure as Levon Ter-Petrosyan should have been sure in advance that the authorities wouldn’t leave his step without response and would form a similar delegation. Thus we can suppose that if not the agenda (as it was disputable for authorities), then at least the format is agreed upon in advance. But during the rally Levon Ter-Petrosyan didn’t also exclude that ANC representatives would agree to discuss the agenda suggested by authorities without violating equality of rights of parties. And we should have supposed that there was a mutual agreement on this issue and it was clarified in advance that the format was acceptable for the government. Because it’s too hard for a political figure of Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s level “to enter into the water bare foot” in that case when the other partner of the dialogue, the government, remained “dry” and they don’t even think that they are required to give a symmetric response to that step. ANC published the names of the possible delegation members anticipated by the government in one of their newsletters and the proof of their own excessive tolerance was that ANC even considered the participation of the Secretary of Security Council, Arthur Baghdasaryan, Khosrov Harutyunyan and Vazgen Manukyan criticized by them many times, in those negotiations, thus showing that ANC has become that much tolerant that is ready to shake hands with the Security Council Secretary, Khosrov Harutyunyan and Vazgen Manukyan together with its own representatives. By the way, it was a very interesting fact that ANC didn’t want to see anyone from Prosperous Armenia in that list. That list was just a “trap” that was set. It was a hint for Serj Sargsyan that they wanted to omit Prosperous Armenia and start a round table discussion (as Lyudmila Harutyunyan said) where the government potential would gather. And now, of course, the situation is unpleasant for ANC leaders because they kept on stressing that their allies shouldn’t worry and that ANC, however, could skip public humiliation. And today we speak just about such public humiliation when the first president of the RA is actually publicly humiliated, who made a long speech and tried to substantiate the favorable perspectives of the dialogue in order to create a new situation in Armenia.
– And why do you consider it humiliating and not a step, made by a considerate political figure who, taking into consideration the situation of the country, gave a hand, even though it remained without a response?”
– No. This is not the first case when the society may view this as a very rude mistake (they can’t help it) because I am repeating one more time a politician of such level and an opposition leader doesn’t have the right not to be prudent and be so much mistaken in his predictions. A similar mistake was when Ter-Petrosyan entered into a dialog with Artur Baghdasaryan in 2008. He even visited his office and by that downgraded his position. He gave him the opportunity to be present and make a speech at his rallies. By that Baghdasaryan was able to raise his own price and then sell himself to Serzh Sargsyan. Indeed, having taken into account that mistake Ter-Petrosyan shouldn’t have created an opportunity for the government to gain credit from this process. And the government indeed benefited from this process. During this period while the people were waiting for Armenian spring to come holding their breaths, in fact that opportunity was annulated and ANC concluded a deal with the government, which is really valuable for the latter not for achieving any results but for continuing to proceed as a self-goal. In the statement made on March 11, Serzh Sargsyan assured that by the end of May the people will really sense the relieve of social concerns, decrease of prices on consumer goods etc. However by the end of May the successive inflation was recorded, including the prices on coffee which is the only treat available for Armenian families. In this situation, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was right to state that the government had to act this way to react to the ANC’s suggestion on holding a dialogue, taking into account the danger of social explosion. But I used to warn ANC by my speeches that the government aimed at involving them into senseless discussions and stretch time this way. As it turned out they are going to stretch time not only for the discussion of the agenda but for the format as well. According to my previsions the government is going to stretch time till the end of June. As it is known during the full session of PACE which is to take place on June 22-24, in Strasburg Serzh Sargsyan is to make a speech. It is anticipated that Serzh Sargsyan will be praised by the European Institutions for agreeing to hold a dialogue, for releasing the political prisoners, and will discuss the agenda and format as long as possible which is really advantageous for the government. It will be fair if the government suggested ANC returning to the Yerevan community council take mandates and protect citizens’ rights and interests. This suggestion will be acceptable, since if ANC proposes a dialogue, they will have to stop boycotting. But in fact the government chose to humiliate the Congress and they are a success.
– Do you think that this will give raise to new boycotts, since the people will not stand that new “humiliation”.
– When the media started discussing the topic of dialogue, Stepan Demirchyan consulted with me. I told him that the government will try to act the same way as during the negotiation on Karabakh conflict. That is to say, as Bernstein said, the process is everything, the final aim is nothing. Like in the negations on Karabakh conflict the most important is the continuing process, and the same result will be in this case. Since the process itself gives the opportunity to avoid confrontment. I told Stepan Demirchyan that Serzh Sargsyan will be guided by the same logic in the internal dialogue. As in the negotiations for regulation of Karabakh conflict which proceed with the assistance of co-chairmen OSCE of Minsk group, the party which is interested in sustaining the status-quo, benefits from this situation, likewise Serzh Sargsyan will benefit from the dialogue, who is willing to keep the inner political status-quo. In both cases the parties agree to hold a dialogue, in spite of having contradictory orientations in terms of agenda and objectives of the dialogue. Stepan Demirchyan said that it is not possible, and this comparison is not appropriate. During the rally when Ter-Petrosyan deflected from his written speech and I recalled my warning to Stepan, who excluded that. By drawing this analogy Ter-Petrosyan showed that he seems ready and agrees with that kind of dialog. It means that Ter-Petrosyan was not only ready but also knew that it was going to happen. And this is where we see how the government is able to resolve a very important problem in such a difficult situation. By involving the opposition into government we see that the government was able to overcome the political situation, yet it was not able to overcome the social-economic crisis. Here the third party – the people with their numerous problems, is not too encouraged about the dialog. They expect the solution of their social-economic issues. The behavior of the people cannot be so primitive as Ter-Petrosyan was saying. This separation and gap is going to exist because now this gap between the opposition and government will be overcome but a new gap will be created between the people and infertile dialog participants. Yes, the willingness of the people to follow the opposition may be under threat because they will see that their expectations are not fulfilled as a result of this dialog and the opposition doesn’t keep its promise. The government is trying to degrade the ANC in this field to show that Ter-Petrosyan was primitively defeated in a chess debut.
– Why didn’t Sargsyan agree to establish a roundtable format with the opposition?
– Ter-Petrosyan is trying to get rid of the third player of the process, Robert Kocharyan. But Sargsyan realizes that he is in a very good position and is able to maneuver between Kocharyan and Ter-Petrosyan. That’s why he cannot agree with neither Kocharyan to get rid of Ter-Petrosyan nor with the latter’s suggestion to get rid of Kocharyan. Of course, Sargsyan has a very poignant instinct for power, which comes from his past experience and he very well understands that by trying to exclude Kocharyan’s factor Ter-Petrosyan is trying to create favorable conditions for himself to have the power in his hands, which is currently in the hands of Sargsyan. It is very profitable for Sargsyan to witness that Ter-Petrosyan is playing his game. So Ter-Petrosyan offers to strengthen his factor and contradict Kocharyan to get rid of Prosperous Armenia. Sargsyan very well understand the political chess game. He is not naïve.