“The Armenian issue is the biggest taboo in Turkey. Currently we are trying to overcome it. It is a process, and it is better to say that it is the beginning of the process,” said Aybars Gorgulu in Istanbul, assistant to the head of foreign policy project of the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation, /TESEV/. According to him, during the past three years the foundation has actively implemented projects jointly with the Caucasus Institute in Armenia. According to Gorgulu, currently Turkey is in the phase of changes, which he believes are ‘elite’ changes. He says he sees the same positive change in the Armenian society. He says these changes are happening even though for a dialogue the economic platform of Armenia is not so interesting for Turkey. “The production of Eastern Turkey is more developed than Armenia’s production, which of course does not mean that Armenia is not an interesting country. If either of the borders between Armenia and Turkey is opened, for example the one with Kars, I believe Eastern Turkey will have beneficial influence in Armenia’s economy. Turkey significantly depends on Georgia, the reason of which is the transportation of gas through that territory. From this prospective Armenia is an isolated island,” said the TESEV employee, who believes Armenia will have better positions if the border is open. “It may sound not so good, but for the Turkish authorities economic cooperation with Armenia is not interesting as Armenia is a small country with small population. However, Armenia may be an alternative for Georgia in terms of energetic issues,” said the project director Sabiha Senyucel Gundogar and added that the most beneficial sector in cooperation between Armenia and Turkey can be tourism. The project director also notes that Turkish products are sold in Armenia and one can see Turkish brands everywhere in Armenia. However, the project director and assistant believe that opening the border is a very complicated issue. According to them the factor of Azerbaijan is significant here and Turkey is taking into account the losses and interests with that country. “By refusing to open the borders Turkey has bigger interests than losses. Besides the economic and historical relations with Azerbaijan, they depend on Azerbaijan as they buy gas,” said Sabiha Senyucel Gundogar, the head of foreign policy project of the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation, /TESEV/), who also added that his opinion might seem pessimistic. According to them, if the supporters of Rejep Tayyip Erdogan’s party want the borders be open, it will be possible. Erdogan’s supporters may press on him to open the borders. “Currently I don’t see the light in the tunnel of Armenia-Turkey relations,” said Gundogar. According to the project assistant Goregulu, in Turkey the Azeris have a significant lobby and if the borders are open with Armenia without solving the problem of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan may suffer. According to him, in 1993 Turkey closed the border with Armenia for the purpose of maintaining good relations between the two muslim countries. In answer to a question in that situation how should the protocols be interpreted if they were signed between Armenia and Turkey without preconditions he said, “In every step they were taking into consideration the interests of Azerbaijan. Aliyev was in front of those steps, and when the protocols were announced, the Azeris said that it was a betrayal.” According to Sabiha Senyucel Gundogar, Russia and the US can apply pressure on Azerbaijan in order not to make Turkey a hostage of relations in the Caucasus. According to them, they responsibility of the problem is left on Turkey, and Turkey refuses to go forward as it understands the prices of cooperation with Azerbaijan. “Armenia wants the borders be open tomorrow, the Genocide recognized in one year, but these issues will take long in Turkey as they are more flexible issues. Thus, Armenia has never been and will not be a priority in Turkey,” said Sabiha Senyucel Gundogar.
Istanbul-Yerevan
