The ANC is planning to hold a demonstration in the vicinity of the Matenadaran, which will be decisive and very important in terms of the future political developments. It does not mean that following the demonstration the opposition will march to Baghramyan street and make the president resign. The problem is that the ANC’s demands consisting of 15 points spoken during the opposition’s rally on March 1 have brought to a situation, when both the opposition and the government are in a deadlock. Today’s demonstration and the future developments will proceed according to the principle “either or” both for the opposition and the government. Levon Ter-Petrosyan said that the deadline of the demands would be today’s rally, and in case the authorities fail to satisfy those demands, they would start specific actions and stay in the square until the authorities would resign. Almost everyone, including the ANC representatives believe that the next action on part of the opposition will be a march to the Freedom square. Even though the ANC representatives do not know what the next step will be, the opposition leader cannot step back because if he has set such a high goal, he cannot give up on his commitment and go home because if he does this he will lose his reputation like it happened to Stepan Demirchyan in 2003. The authorities have failed to fulfill either of the 15 demands, of course if the opposition leader does not say that the president’s speech last week was aimed at the fulfillment of those demands. This means that in order to continue the activities of the ANC, the opposition just stay in the square from now on. It seems there are no other options. What will happen if the opposition leader decides to conquer the square again? In this case the authorities, i.e. Serzh Sargsyan will appear in a deadlock. If they use force against the demonstrators, it will turn out that his petitions to the police are mere campaign tricks and the authorities have not changed as they are trying to introduce to the society. Of course it is also possible that the demonstrators may not wait for their leader’s calls and may spontaneously decide to go to the Freedom square on their own, as a result of which the police may use force against them. In such situation the ANC leader may announce that people do not obey the opposition either (which Levon Ter-Petrosyan spoke about at the rally on February 18) and go home. In a word, today’s rally will result in real changes in the political situation of Armenia. There will be either a revolution or change of the opposition.
