“Negotiations over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh are going nowhere, despite a renewed impetus for talks,” writes a recent research conducted by the Jane’s Intelligence research center from the US. “With the incomes from oil and natural gas Azerbaijan is trying to change the status-quo of 17 years. For this purpose the official Baku is going to invest 3.1 billion dollars in the security and military sectors in 2011, which is six times more than Armenia’s investments in the same sector. However, despite the tangible financial difference the salaries of military officers in Azerbaijan do not differ from the salaries in Armenia much. Most part of the financial investments of Baku in the military sector is spent on the development of the poor infrastructure and procurement of new technical facilities,” writes the Jane’s Intelligence. Concerning the military potential of the parties the Jane’s Intelligence writes that the numbers of tanks in both armies are almost the same. “The possible conflict between the parties will definitely start from air attacks and bombings, and this is the sector where there is significant difference between the Armenian and Azeri parties and may change the situation,” write the experts of the center. “Anyway it is not clear whether the official Baku will be able to use this quantity difference for quality and change the situation in the battlefield,” writes the center. According to them, from this prospective the challenge for Azerbaijan in a possible war with Karabakh may be the Karabakh’s better geopolitical location, Armenia’s military treaty with Russia, as well as the political situation in its own country. “The military treaty with Russia is the main source of strengthening Armenia’s defense system, which results in additional risks with Baku: Azerbaijan’s attempts to enter into a cooperation with Moscow, or in contrast the cooperation with Turkey and the West in the sector of defense cannot neutralize Russia’s potential to be involved in the conflict,” writes the center and mentioned that in case of a conflict Turkey, as well as the West, will escape from involvement in the conflict in order not to confront to Russia. “All these factors do not exclude the possibility of military actions over Karabakh, however the limited potentials of the parties and the policies of the international community to this issue limit the possibility of such scenario,” concludes the Jane’s Intelligence.
