According to political technologist Armen Badalyan, if parliamentary elections were to take place this Sunday, three political powers will be elected in the parliament – the Republican Party of Armenia, Prosperous Armenia party and the Armenian National Congress.
“As the elections will take place in 1,5 years, during this period certain processes will definitely influence on the developments. For example, as a result of migration it is possible that a part of the ANC’s electorate may leave from the country. Likewise the PA’s electorate may emigrate too. The relations between the RPA and PA will play a key role too. It is also up to the RPA’s decision whether they may want to compete and force the PA out as an alternative competitor. If they do it, of course the PA will not get seats in the parliament,” said A.Badalyan. As for the undecided voters, he believes these people are a great indicator to measure the electorate. “It is not clear yet whether Karapetich or someone else may be able to accumulate that electorate. However, in case of a smart effort it is possible to make a new political force. There are grounds for that tendency already,” said A.Badalyan. Concerning the leader of Heritage party Raffi Hovhannisyan the political technologist said that he is the most “unsuccessful” politician in the political sector who fails to use his potential. “He should be excluded from the party,” he said and added that unlike him, who does not appear in the media at all, his party peers are very active in civic initiatives. “The Heritage party in fact does not exist and only their faction has visibility. The leader of this party Raffi Hovhannisyan is the most unsuccessful politician of Armenia. Be in his place any politician would try to appear in the media. Have you ever seen Raffi Hovhannisyan on TV screens since 2007? He is not there. The Heritage does not have a future as far as he is the leader of that party. He has to be replaced.”
Concerning the ARF he said that the stabile electorate of this party is getting less through the time. “During the parliamentary elections 2007 this political power was given 170.000 votes, and in one year Vahan Hovhannisyan got 90.000 votes in the presidential elections, and during the council elections in 2009 they got 18.000 votes, which is more than T.Karapetyan’s votes for 10.000 only. This shows that the ARF is losing its votes. The ARF leaders who are speaking of European values had to leaver after all these things, which they failed to do indeed. In fact they have to leave. The party has to do two things to recover their place – replace the president of the party and really focus on the Hay Dat (Armenian Issue)”.
In answer to the question what will change in the political sector if the second president Robert Kocharyan returned he said, “Firstly let’s find out if has quit or no and then try to understand what will change if he returns. There are evident and hidden policies. He still exists in the hidden policy for sure. Many ministers and governors are his people. It doesn’t matter if Kocharyan returns personally. He may try to appoint his loyalists in key positions and rule from behind the scene.”