The New Year comes with analysis of the achievements of the past year and, what is more interesting, predictions for the coming year. It is more interesting especially when there is no chance to be mistaken. Now everybody understands that this year, which is the year of the rabbit, is going to be the year of gas for Armenia. The Armenian society has been prepared for the expected gas price increase in 2011 from the fall of last year. Now everybody is waiting for April 1 to see what will happen. However, the situation is a little different this year. The ArmRusGazArd company has not started the process of annual rate increase yet. In other words, they have not applied to the respective commission for the purpose of increasing the rate. The show has not started yet. These are discussions that have no surprise and everyone knows what will happen because the scenario is the same every year. The company will ask to increase the rates, the commission will discuss and reduce a little bit, and after approving everyone will be satisfied. However, everyone is concerned about the possible growth of gas prices. The managers of the Russian Gazprom say in their interview to the media that the prices of the supplied gas to Armenia will be increased up to the level of Europe. One of the reasons is the fact that Armenia has not received cheap gas so far, but a part of the price was subsidized by property. Experts assure that Armenia does not have any other strategic objects to give out and the only thing has remained is the cascade of Vorotan. The latest announcement concerning this cascade has been made by former PM Andranik Margaryan, who said that it is not subject to alienation and cannot be sold. It is worth mentioning that according to the existing law the atomic station cannot be sold either. This law is still the same and nobody has proposed to change it either. Accordingly, we will have to pay cash for the Russian gas. This is where the forecasts come from. Armenian consumers are also worried about the possibility of privatization of the gas pipe in Georgia, which supplies gas to Armenia. The so called “North-South” gas pipeline that comes to Armenia through Georgia does not interest the authorities because our neighbor gets its consumed gas from the pipeline through the other neighbor’s territory, i.e. from Azerbaijan. The Georgian authorities periodically make announcements about selling the pipeline coming to Armenia through its territory. In addition, the Azeri state oil company responds to those announcements by expressing willingness to buy the pipeline. Our government does not make any official statements. They keep silence concerning both this issue and the possibility of gas price growth. It will be clear whether the price of gas was affordable for people this winter soon after the publication of the consumption statistics. People have stopped using gas as the main means for heating their houses this year, and very soon companies may revise their decision to use gas as the main means too. As a result, the price of processing one liter of juice may be equal to the price of welding two kilos of metal in mining companies. It will affect the price of the final product. People have also found out that the gas has also lost its quality and now they spend more gas for making the same portion food as before. People are concerned of this issue and there is no NGO to protect their rights. The quality and other factors of gas supplied to Armenia are not established or protected by any document, thus the importing company is not accountable and responsible for the quality. I don’t recall any case when the ministry of energy would publish such information concerning gas supply and the company in charge. Armenia is not the only country that does not have energetic resources. For example, the Jews have a joke saying that ages ago Moses made their people to stay in deserts until he would find the only piece of land in the region where there is no oil and gas. However, they know perfectly how much gas they have to consume for boiling one tone of water. Does anybody from the ministry of energy know what the coefficient of efficiency of the gas imported to Armenia is?
