In 2008, it was a bright spring day when businessman Barsegh Beglaryan said on the air of one of the Armenian TV companies that the “coalition is slowly collapsing”. One year later, in April 2009 the Dashnaktsutyun resigned from the coalition. Now, the political circles in Armenia are discussing the rumors that the Prosperous Armenia may resign from the coalition.
It is not excluded that in one year the only powers to dominate in the parliament will be the president’s RPA and his loyalist Artur Baghdasaryan’s Rule of Law parties. The fact is that in four years after the establishment this coalition is in a very weak condition. Rumors say that the president has given ultimatum to Gagik Tsarukyan to announce who will be their presidential candidate in 2013. The issue of the PA’s possible resignation from the coalition is discussed in this context. During the 20th anniversary of the RPA the president announced that he does not speak with “ultimatums” with his colleagues and instead of this term he used the word “demand”, as a result of which these rumors were activated. “The ultimatum they say is my demands to my party members, as well as the coalition partners. I think this is normal and it is not logical to think another way,” said Serzh Sargsyan. The RPA people say that the authorities, i.e. Serzh Sargsyan and his political power, want to know the plans of their coalition partners for the upcoming elections and whether they will endorse the incumbent president or will have their own candidate. The political year 2010 is being closed with this question. On the last day of the parliament session of this year the MPs were discussing what the benefit or loss of the coalition might be if the PA resigned from the coalition. From the prospective of legal policies the ruling party will appear in a difficult situation. However, the RPA’s 63 and the LS’s 8 MPs are enough to have a majority in the parliament. However the experience shows that for the government from time to time it is very difficult to provide the presence of the necessary numbers of MPs during voting processes to pass their bills and if the PA resigns they will have difficulties in passing their bills in the parliament. During a recent discussion they could prove that they can fail any discussions they want. The PA, ARF and Heritage parties did not take part in the discussion of the draft law on the garbage collection and there was no quorum. During the last session even though the PA was present, the coalition parties failed to adopt another draft law too. If the PA resigns, it can simply fail the work of the parliament with the other two parties. The RPA people worry that if the PA gives up on them, they may lose 20 MPs from their party. Among these people are the relative of the former president Vladimir Badalyan, Karen Chshmarityan and others. Generally if the PA resigns, it may bring to instability in the political sector of the country, which is not good for the RPA.
In the current phase the PA is not interested in resigning from the coalition either. They understand what may happen to political powers that are separated from the authorities, especially if they possess huge financial resources. There is no need to bring details; we may only remember what happened to Khachatur Sukiasyan when he decided to endorse the opposition candidate Levon Ter-Petrosyan. His businesses were simply pressed to the wall by the government. As a result of this scenario not only Tsarukyan’s businesses may suffer because many members of their party will resign too. It is what happened to the LS in 2008 when this party resigned from the coalition. By resigning from the coalition the PA will lose the minister’s portfolios too, which is a source of resources for them. The PA leader understands this very well and that is why he is prolonging his answer. Anyway, the political circles believe the PA will resign from the coalition in 2011 anyway, but they don’t know when exactly.
We talked to several MPs to see what they think about this issue. Will the coalition survive till the parliamentary elections in 2012?
NA deputy-speaker Samvel Nikoyan: I think that the coalition has worked effectively so far. I understand the meaning of the question because there are rumors about the possibility that the coalition may collapse and the ultimatum. I think the president gave a good answer. I think that in 2007 the RPA could take the power solely but we made a coalition and invested all our potential in it. I think it was planned for a long-term cooperation.
-Is it important for the RPA to make the PA to announce who is going to be their candidate during the elections in 2013?
-I can’t answer that question but I want the coalition partnership continue. The RPA with its partners is transparent and predictable. We expect such approach from our partners too.
Vardan Bostanjyan (PA): At least I think there is no problem. Even if there are such rumors. I think these rumors are simply gossip.
Hovhannes Sahakyan (RPA): (Will the PA stay in the coalition till the elections in 2012?)
Of course, taken the fact that there will be pre-election campaign and usually before elections coalitions are dissolved. It is written in the coalition memorandum too. The coalition cannot take part in elections as it will be a pre-election bloc. After the elections, when there are new orders of powers, we will discuss whether it is worth to make a new coalition or no. I don’t think the PA may resign from the coalition now. We don’t expect that at least till the spring sessions. Maybe there will be some conditions during the spring session and they may resign. In addition, the president clearly said in his speech that he does not speak to his partners with ultimatums but this is just a demand. He is demanding to do the work in a duly manner and respect their responsibility. As the president said these demands don’t concern the PA only but the government and other coalition powers as well.
Artsrouni Aghajanyan (LS): (Do you think this coalition will survive till the elections?)
Yes; they have signed, undertaken responsibilities and they will continue this way. There are no reasons now. Everyone is trying to do what they have committed to do in the coalition memorandum.
Viktor Dallakyan: I think it is up to the president only. The coalition will do whatever he decides that it should do. If the president needs the coalition to survive till 2012, they will. And if the president makes calculations and decides that he does not need the coalition, it will be dissolved.
Armen Rustamyan: I don’t want to make predictions but the past shows that the coalition has strayed from the priorities they have agreed upon on the establishment. The coalition agreement had 22 priorities, most of which are simply ignored now. The government somehow confessed this fact but said that the reason was the international crisis. From this prospective I see no good future in the coalition. It is up to them to cooperate or get divorced.
Zaruhi Postanjyan (Heritage): It is the same for me what the composition of the coalition will be. For me it is important what reforms they will make for our society, how they will improve the living. I think that during these years we have not developed. Even more, negative processes are happening in our country, as a result of which the migration is more now.