Since we are continuing with the chess topic, this time we will try to analyze the game for the parliamentary elections which will take place in Azerbaijan. Judging from the events that took place in Baku these past couple of days, we can say for sure that the cosmopolitan grosmeisters playing this time are Russia and U.S.
Armenians are interested in this game because the next round will be the constitutional amendments to take place in Armenia. It is obvious that the grosmeisters will do everything they can to not lose this round. This means that even the neutral result is profitable for neither side.
Former Azeri parliamentary speaker Rasul Ghuliyev led the opposition and made the first step by forcing Ilham Aliyev to accept the call for battle and the aggressive/defensive position by taking into consideration the experience in elections gained by the post-Soviet countries in the past couple of years.
White team
King Rasul Ghuliyev
Queen U.S. and other Western special services
Pawns authority representatives that have taken the side of the Azeri opposition
Bishops “Azdlig” oppositionist union
Horse Western media
Knights newly found student and youth organizations
Black team
King Ilham Aliyev
Queen Russian special services
Pawns Azeri strong forces
Bishops “Yeni Azeri” political party
Horses Russian media and Azeri media on the authorities’ side
Knights mass away from politics
Whites are playing
The first step taken by the Azeri opposition was the classic e2-e4 move, where the opposition, just like in any country, announced that it wants to come to power. There is one difference: the white team quickly implied that they wanted to do the same thing that the Georgians and Ukrainians did.
Blacks are playing
What I don’t understand is why Ilham Aliyev started to play aggressively after finding out that the opposition was going to try to repeat the events in Georgia and Ukraine. This can be explained by the fact that Aliyev found out about the activities of the black pawns (about funding for the opposition by the Azeri authorities who had taken the side of the opposition). He tried to neutralize their activities with his pawns (Azerbaijan’s strong structures) by firing them from their jobs and arresting them.
Whites
This, of course, was a great loss for the whites, however, the white queen is still in the game and she has prepared to use the exit-polls tactic which has never been applied in the CIS countries. The U.S. State Secretary’s assistant Daniel Frid has announced that if the difference between the official data of the Azeri elections and the exit-polls consists of 2%, then the U.S. will recognize the results.
Blacks
The black queen also knows how to play the game. The Russian special services know that besides Georgia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, there is Uzbekistan where Islam Karimov “asked” the Americans to remove their military bases stationed in the country after failing a couple of times. Besides the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan oil route, Americans today are interested in stationing military bases in the border of Iran (no matter how much they refuse). This means that the black queen will do everything it can (we have seen this) to try to keep the white figures away from danger. As for the knights, it is very rare to see them become serious figures.
Whites
Recently, in one of the articles published in the “Los Angeles Times”, it was stated that when Azeri citizens to go the polls on November 6, they will not be voting for members of the parliament, but rather they will be participating in the elections which, whether good or bad, will become the referendum for the U.S.’s call for spreading democracy in the world. The same article states that providing free and fair elections will mean that Islam, oil and democracy will be connected to one another. If any falsifications take place during the elections; that will be proof that democracy is just a beautiful word for the U.S. and the Western world, when the issues of military bases and oil are put on the table. In any case, the fact that Rasul Ghulin, who was arrested in Ukraine, has returned to London after surrendering to the Azeri authorities (with the hopes of trying to come back to Baku) means that the whites are not getting ready to surrender. On the contrary, they have prepared a few surprises for the black team.
Blacks
As for the blacks, they are using the strategy used many times in the CIS countries-total attack. How will this round finish? We will know the answer on November 7 (by the way, this is a symbolic day-it is the day when the Great October Revolution took place).
Chess interpreter Karen Kocharyan
This would not interest chess fans if it was not connected to Armenia. The forces in our country may change around after the events in our inter-political life and the Karabagh conflict take place. In regard to the inter-political life, if anything changes in Azerbaijan (which is practically impossible in my opinion), the cosmopolitan forces will do everything they can to so that something changes in Armenia (we are not talking about revolution which is theoretically possible) because those forces like to see equality for both sides. Of course, we must consider one interesting thing which may seem as a minor detail at first sight. The present day Azeri authorities and oppositionists are considered to be the followers of the Nakhijevanyan clan (Heydar Aliyev is considered to be the leader). However, Ilham Aliyev prefers to set himself free from his father’s partners (he is doing that in a rather rude manner). I wanted you to pay attention to this because the same may happen in Armenia.