Yesterday the RA President Serzh Sargsyan left for Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation, where a trilateral meeting of the Presidents of Armenia, the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan took place in Astrakhan at the initiative of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev. Let us remember that this is the third meeting of the president of Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2010. As a result of yesterday’s meeting a joint statement was made. “Today we agreed on the following: the current principles are kept on which the future peace agreement will be based. The parties have passed a long way. And if they work hard in the upcoming months, about which we will instruct out foreign ministers, the parties are possible to achieve an agreement before the OSCE Summit in December,” said Medvedev. He underlined that many issues are still undecided, but we have the aspiration of the sides to reach text agreements on unsettled issues. Russia will continue its efforts and I think some result is possible which inspires positive hopes, said Medvedev. The three presidents issued a statement on the results of their talks, “confirming the clauses of the joint Declaration signed in Moscow on November 2, 2008” and “emphasizing that the settlement of the conflict through political and diplomatic means requires further efforts on strengthening the ceasefire regime and confidence-building measures in the military sphere.” The document says that “for this purpose the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed, as the first step, to urgently conduct an exchange of prisoners-of-war and the return of the bodies of killed people with the assistance of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group and the International Committee of the Red Cross,” reads the statement. According to the press release of the Kremlin Medvedev and presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev have discussed the further steps of the NKR conflict resolution. That’s all. No more details were provided. Spokesperson for the Russian President Natalia Timakova said that it does not worth waiting for any sensations. "The processes will be analyzed with the participation of the parties of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict", Timakova told media. This is the third meeting of the presidents in a trilateral format. The presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia met last time in St. Petersburg in June. The presidents met in Sochi in January in this format earlier. The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. – are currently holding negotiations to resolve the dispute. Armenia has failed to implement U.N. Security Council resolutions stipulating the liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions. Medvedev also added that “although the negotiations are proceeding with rough debates they are useful anyways.” “Those are not only negotiations but also clear steps ahead. I find this a positive thing because negotiations are better than rough conflicts. The fact that the sides have signed a declaration about the exchange of prisoners of war and deceased may be considered a progress,” he said. After the talks in Astrakhan, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed a hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan could move closer to resolving their differences in the current negotiations. “We have come a certain way, which gives grounds to hope that if the sides work well over the next month … then by the time of the OSCE summit in Kazakhstan on December 1-2 we could reach an agreed variant of common regulation principles,” the Russian leader said. Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency quoted Medvedev as telling the media after the talks that in a special declaration aimed at building confidence the parties had agreed on “an exchange of prisoners-of-war and bodies of those killed.” The RF President didn’t exclude that during the upcoming meeting of the presidents in Kazakhstan the parties may reach a final agreement. According to the Russian Ria Novosti Medvedev said, "The sides have just agreed a joint statement of a humanitarian nature, which is very important taking into account various difficulties in the Armenia-Azerbaijan relations on Nagorno Karabakh issues." "These efforts are bringing results. The intensity should not decrease," Medvedev said at a news conference in Baku with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev. "Russia is ready to continue perform its duties under the Minsk Group and as a neighbor. I am ready for the continuation of contacts and ready to discuss the most complicated issues that remain," he added. Medvedev is on the second day of a two-day visit to Azerbaijan. In addition to the long-running conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh, the two presidents discussed economic ties and cooperation in the Caspian Region. After the trilateral meeting the presidents also met with the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. However, neither in the NKR nor in Armenia people don’t have great expectations from this meeting. For example the head of the Republican faction Galust Sahakyan thinks that the trilateral meeting between Armenian, Azeri and Russian presidents in Astrakhan promises no surprises. “This is merely another meeting, no more important to Azerbaijan than it is to Armenia. Azerbaijan keeps letting out battle cries then running into hiding like a rat,” Sahakyan said. If Sahakyan is so optimistic about the process then they don’t think so in the NKR having taken into account the negative developments. “In Azerbaijan the anti-Armenian propaganda has intensified. An Armenian citizen has been killed, who accidentally appeared in the Azerbaijani territory. The gunshots don’t stop. And finally Azerbaijan with its numerous statements showed the Azerbaijani approach. All this shows that there can be no positive shifting expected from this meeting,” told the Radio Liberty the spokesman of the NKR president Davit Babayan. In his opinion Russia, which plays the role of the initiator of the meeting, is merely trying to stabilize the tense environment. “Russia sees that this behavior of Azerbaijan may cause unexpected results that is why in my opinion it is trying to stretch the negotiation process. Besides that Russia is also showing that plays an active role in the process and that compared to other countries it has a greater capacity to regulate the situation,” he mentioned by adding that no document is expected to be signed neither now nor in December in Astana. “The maximum that may happen in Astana is that the co-chairs may present their field missions in a summarized form. All the developments that are taking place are not leaving any grounds for us to believe that a document may be signed or that any positive shifting can be expected,” reaffirmed the spokesman of the NKR president. “I do not expect any impressive results from the trilateral presidential meeting. On the other hand, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents must meet and discuss issues. Such meetings are an alternative to unilateral meetings, growing tension and conflicts in the region,” said Konstantin Zatulin, First Vice-Chairman of the Committee for the CIS and Relations with Russian Nationals Abroad, RF State Duma, and Vice-Chairman of the Armenian-Russian Commission for Parliamentary Cooperation. “In organizing such meetings, including the ones in Russia, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pursues a certain goal. Russia feels somewhat uncomfortable – two of the CIS member-countries, Azerbaijan, which has a common border with Russia, and Armenia which is Russia’s ally, are in a permanent conflict. Russia is trying to bring the sides’ closer and find a solution to the conflict. Of course, it is up to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh to arrive at a final decision. Russia is a mediator, unwilling to appear to be on either side. Russia seeks good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia wants to build up normal relations in the region. Another matter is that each side has its own recipe and understanding of the essence of the conflict and of its consequences. I think Russia’s behavior shows it desire for an agreement, whereas an agreement largely remains unachievable,” Zatulin said. “However, resuming hostilities has so far been an unacceptable way for both Armenia and mediators, and, which is the most important, for Azerbaijan. Another war will certainly be a tremendous shock for the country. Azerbaijan underwent a number of upheavals during the Karabakh war, the country’s economic situation worsened. Reverting to the idea of resuming hostilities would be tantamount to running the risk of losing power for the Azerbaijani authorities. On the other hand, they hope the international community will be impressed by their militant rhetoric and border incidents,” said Zatulin. Let us also mention that on that day in Astrakhan the statue of the former President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev was solemnly opened. As many politicians and observers have managed to notice the overlap of this ceremony and the meeting of the presidents cannot be considered coincidence.
