Tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols. But it’s hard to say whether it’s an anniversary or a birthday. Everybody remembers how and in what conditions in the Swiss Zurich on October 10 the foreign affairs ministers of Armenia and Turkey Edward Nalbandyan and Ahmed Davutoghlu signed the protocols. For the purpose of this ceremony the US State Secretary Hillary Clinton visited Zurich. Let us remember what we have gone through within this year since signing the documents. After signing the protocols were sent to the parliaments for ratification in both countries. However, after signing and on the threshold of ratification the Turkish side has started to bring up preconditions on the genocide and the NKR conflict, establishment of intergovernmental commissions, etc. For the purpose of neutralizing these preconditions on January 12 the Constitutional Court made its famous decision, 3 months after which, on April 22, the RA President Serzh Sargsyan postponed the process. It seems that after this it is kind of later to speak about the resumption of the process of ratification of the protocols but lately we have been noticing certain activation coming from the Turkish side, rumors that the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement is not fully failed, etc. First of all we constantly hear certain warm and friendly statements from the Turkish side; it seems they are throwing peace doves in the air. During the official visit of the NA chairman Hovik Abrahamyan to Switzerland in late September of this year his delegation met with the Head of the Department for Foreign Affairs of Swiss Confederation Mrs. Michelin Calmy-Rey. The NA President noted that the Republic of Armenia emphasized the comprehensive development of the relations with the Swiss Confederation, in particular, in the solution of the international different problems the mediation role of Switzerland. According to Hovik Abrahamyan, the role of Armenian-Swiss is also big in the development of the bilateral relations. The NA President noted that the Armenian authorities assessed the support shown by Switzerland, which was aimed at the fulfillment of the social-economic reforms in Armenia. The NA President said that Armenia highly assessed the support of Switzerland in the initiative of the Armenian side directed to the Armenian-Turkish relations’ normalization. Hovik Abrahamyan stressed that an agreement had been to establish relations without preconditions, but the Turkish side put forward a number of preconditions, which were unacceptable for the Armenian side. The NA President mentioned that taking into account the unduly delays in ratification of the protocols within set deadlines in the Turkish Parliament, the President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan called back the protocols from the agenda of the Armenian Parliament, however keeping the signature of the Armenian side put under the protocols and with that honoring the mediators’ high prestige. And according to the press release of the NA of Armenia Calmy-Rey stated in her speech to the conviction of the Head of the Department for Foreign Affairs, the normalization process of the Armenian-Turkish relations cannot be left incomplete. “Switzerland is resolute to put forward the process,” Mrs. Calmy-Rey concluded. She highly assessed the step taken by RA President Serzh Sargsyan, which was aimed at the Armenian-Turkish relations’ normalization, considering it as a political courage. The NA President emphasized the establishment of the Swiss Embassy in Armenia, which would give new impetus to the development of the multilateral relations and cooperation between Armenia and Switzerland. During the meeting both sides also touched upon the settlement of the NK problem. The sides highlighted the solution of the issue through peaceful negotiation. The President of the National Council of the Swiss Federation Mrs. Erika Forster-Vannini highly assessed the visit of RA NA President to Switzerland, which would boost the bilateral cooperation in all directions. He considered necessary the further development of the inter-parliamentary relations and in that context distinguished the effective activity of the friendship groups. He stressed that he would do his best in order the Armenian-Swiss cooperation develop and strengthen. Touching upon the normalization process of the Armenian-Turkish relations, the President of the Senate of Switzerland noted that his country would continue its mediation mission aimed the normalization of the process. She considered important the establishment of security, peace and stability in the region. The NA President expressed his gratitude for the invitation and warm reception and noted that he was glad to be hosted in a country, which being in the heart of Europe, was a special symbol of balance not only in Europe, but also in the whole world. Switzerland due its neuter, unbiased policy was always at the center of global processes. Hovik Abrahamyan noted that he had come from a region where there was a necessity for such balanced and moderate behavior, where, unfortunately, there was lack of tolerance. The NA President stressed that on the foreign political agenda of Armenia the European integration was one of the priorities and we realized what challenges were the state facing, and the democracy was the most powerful weapon, especially taking into account the geographical position of Armenia and the existing problems in the region. He noted that the Swiss experience was very important in the context of the ongoing reforms in our country, particularly, in the aspect of strengthening the democratic institutes and protection of human rights. And during the Q&A with the NA this Wednesday the foreign affairs minister of Armenia Edward Nalbandyan said that he hadn’t had any phone conversation with the Turkish side during the past months when responding to the question on the possible resumption of the Turkish-Armenian relations. “I ensure you that during the past months I have had no communication or phone conversation with the Turkish side and nothing is even planned for the coming period,” said the foreign affairs minister of Armenia by saying that he has been having indirect conversations with the Swiss counterparts. The statements of the Turkish side also come to prove this. Specifically the president of Turkey Abdullah Gul told the Italian Limese weekly that an inaudible negotiation is proceeding between Turkey and Armenia. To the question of the Italian reporter as to what exactly the Turkish president meant by that Gul responded, “Inaudible and determined diplomacy. At this moment this is the only way of reaching any solution. This is my opinion.” It is apparent that certain steps are being taken to revive the Turkish-Armenian relations or at least some attempts not to ultimately fail this process. And this becomes even more apparent on the background of the fact that tomorrow is the one-year anniversary of signing the protocols. April 24 is not behind the mountains either and the US president Barack Obama once again needs reasons not to pronounce the word genocide. In that case it is interesting to know what the sides have received from this and whether it is was worth expecting any activation. “In fact, neither Turkey nor especially Armenia reached any results. Actually the Armenian side consoles itself with the assumption that its international reputation has grown. But we see that Turkey has been involved in various international projects and processes and is good and well able to bargain this process when the need comes,” by estimating the last year says the head of the NA Heritage faction Stepan Safaryan by adding, “And only the fact that we on our own invited Turkey to the region to interfere in the affairs and legitimized Turkey’s role we harmed ourselves. In the past they were constantly saying that Turkey cannot become a member of the Minsk Group because it is a partisan state but it turned out that we brought Turkey to the region ourselves. Turkey has activated the Minsk Group and almost everybody is sure that Turkey has a key role in the process.” “Switzerland doesn’t play any essential role. I don’t think it’s serious. It has been a mediator and its main goal is to move the process,” thinks an ANM member Vladimir Karapetyan. “In the meantime it could only partly comply with his mediation because ultimately the preconditions of Turkey popped out and the mediation failed. I think that in this case there is an issue of protecting the reputation. That is what the statements from the Swiss side are stipulated by. As of the process I don’t think that after being cheated by the Turkish side to such an extent any Armenian official would ever agree with the Turkish preconditions,” mentioned Karapetyan. And the head of the ARF Hay Dat office Kiro Manoyan is sure that there is a concern among the interested states that the anniversary may become an occasion for the Armenian side to withdraw its signature from the protocols. “I think the US has this concern too, which is the actual maestro of this process. So does Switzerland, which is the implementer of the orders of the maestro. This is what the foreign affairs minister of Switzerland warned of. The Turkish side wanted to create an impression that the process is continuing,” thinks Manoyan. But will the Armenian side withdraw its signature? To this question the ARF representative gave a negative response. “Although the president’s statement read that we are not withdrawing our signatures yet. I personally think that this period was stretched for too long and I think it’s time that Armenia withdraws its signature from the protocols and instead offers a half-page document to Turkey, which would contain only three paragraphs. And if any of the Turkish governments ever decides to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia it should agree with the proposed three main points. 1. The two parties have decided to establish diplomatic relations. 2. Turkey has decided to get rid of the blockade, open the roads. 3. And the parties are willing to regulate all the matters based on the international right. All this is enough to expose the actual face of Turkey,” says Manoyan.
