At first sight it seems that it’s too soon to speak about the national elections because closest elections to come, the parliamentary elections, are over 1.5 years ahead.
The regular parliamentary elections will be held in spring 2012 of course if a force majeure situation is not created. Nevertheless, the ones, who wish to appear in the new parliament, have already started to attain a decent place in their respective parties. During the parliamentary elections of the recent years the party tickets of especially the Republican Party of Armenia, have become a tense topic for discussion. The reason is that the party since 1990 has continuously been adding the number of its MPs in the parliament and has had been in power for over 10 years now. If in the Supreme Council of 1990 the RPA only had one MP, in 1995 of the National Assembly 5 MPs (Ashot Navasardyan, Andranik Margaryan, Galust Sahakyan, Yuri Bakhshyan and Gagik Minasyan) then starting from 1999 this number grew drastically. As a result of the parliamentary elections of 1999 the RPA jointly with the PPA in the frames of the alliance, thanks to Karen Demirchyan and Vazgen Sargsyan immediately had 27 MPs. During the last 2003 and 2007 parliamentary elections the party gained majority in the parliament. The RPA party openly and partly surreptitiously is discussing the names of the people to gain a party ticket during the next elections. They are discussing not only the names of people to appear in the list (many people doubt that they will appear in the list) but also the names of the people, who will appear on the top list. In 1999 when the RPA was headed by Margaryan the pre-election list of the alliance was headed by Demirchyan. The second and third places were occupied by Vazgen Sargsyan and Fadey Sargsyan respectively. Margaryan was in the fourth place. Sargsyan, who at that time at least formally, was an average RPA member and had become a member of the party only half year ago, was considered the RPA leader. In 2003 the pre-election list was headed by Margaryan and same in 2007. During the mentioned two elections Serzh Sargsyan was in the second place on the list. If in 2003 he was the minister of defense, wasn’t a party chair and didn’t have a major role in the party, then in 2007 the situation drastically changed. Before the first NA elections Sargsyan had become a member of the RPA. Moreover he started to head the political board of the party and he had a scrupulous role in making the party list. Sargsyan brought in to the RPA people, who previously had no connection with the party but they occupied certain places on the list. And Margaryan was reconciling every single party matter with Sargsyan. Starting from 1999 those people, who headed the RPA list or occupied the second place, had become Prime Ministers after elections. Only under certain circumstances Margaryan was appointed Prime Minister after the events of October 27 of 1999. And after the victory in the next elections he had the full opportunity to get the post of the premier. During the 20-year-old history of the RPA Margaryan was the only Prime Minister that was standing in the roots of the party. Others were so-called new arrivals in the party. Before the elections of 2007 it was evident that Sargsyan would be appointed premier. It means that the RPA list was either always headed by the “premiers-to-be” or incumbent ones. Can the same story repeat this time as well? During the recent period many people are interested in this question especially within the RPA and had become the subject of the inaudible concern of many others because even in the event of the most fantastic imagination it would be hard to believe that Tigran Sargsyan would top the party list without a weighty political role within the party. But the fact is that approximately one year ago he had become an RPA member by bringing a group of “fantasist-economists.” And regardless of how surprising or astounding it would seem from the first sight, according to the sources linked to the government elite Tigran Sargsyan has the greatest chance to head the RPA list. In the modern history of Armenia none of the former presidents of the country has ever headed a party list during parliamentary elections. Hovik Abrahamyan, who according to the Constitution occupies the second key lost after the President – the NA Speaker’s post, has a little chance to occupy a top place on the list. During the previous elections he was on the fourth place. Indeed, certain RPA members are mentioning that this time again Abrahamyan will occupy a leading place on the list but it will not have an essential importance when giving away positions. Therefore the destiny and the current political situation may play another cruel game on the senior RPA members and the 2012 party list may be headed by Tigran Sargsyan. Rumor has it that he wishes to have his own team in the next NA convocation within the RPA. Indeed, the list will be made by the President, RPA chair Serzh Sargsyan and the ones that wish to be included should conduct the main negotiations with him. There is an opinion that more than half of the current RPA faction members will maintain their mandates. The names of the RPA list candidates are not quite known yet after the leading first place. According to our source the former ministers Vardan Ayvazyan, Karen Tchshmarityan and Davit Harutyunyan have a little chance to be included in the top list of the RPA. So the negotiations around occupying a leading place in the next RPA list of the NA, has been launched and therefore the surprises are ahead.