– The ANC believe that the prolongation of the Russian armed forces in the territory of Armenia means that “Russia does not think Armenia is a long-term reliable partner, thus they are trying to fill the gap of lack of trust with legal guarantees.” Dmitry Medvedev said in Baku that the execution of the mentioned agreement was targeted at maintaining peace in the region: “We are interested in peace here; this is how the results of my visit to Armenia should be accepted. There is no hidden idea or other meaning in my visit.” Is it worth believing these statements?
– I don’t think Russia has prolonged the term because of being suspicious whether Armenia is a long-term reliable partner or no. This is one of the ANC’s routine political statements. Medvedev’s announcements in Baku say a lot of things. Many people did not see anything in those announcements but I think it was Medvedev’s most important announcement, which was targeted at Azerbaijan. Because Azerbaijan was the one to build its entire foreign policy on war threats like it would bring instability in the region and make the other powers consider its opinion. Medvedev said that his goal is the peace and stability, thus all should understand that he is not joking. In this situation it is not the right choice on part of the Armenian regime to give any estimation. People make comments about this issue and say that Russia is strengthening its positions in Armenia as they don’t know who will come to power in Armenia soon and whether they will be able to maintain good relations with them. This is mere political statement. If we want to better understand Russia’s approach, we should understand what this step is connected with and the feedback on part of the West, specifically to the US. Even if the US did not welcome that policy, they said that Russia is a member of the OSCE MG and this policy is correct. They gave a good estimation. I don’t think Russia did it for the same reason as it did with Georgia in 2008, during which Russia was messed with the West. I think this is a totally new approach. Really, Russia received a lot of green light from the West to play a bigger role in the region. It was reflected by this agreement first of all. Maybe there will be other steps as well. They are thinking of executing certain agreements with Azerbaijan as well. These are elements of Russia’s new policy, which has got the green light and the results are yet to come. For Armenia it is important to understand what we have got from it. This is a serious question. By signing this document Armenia gave a lot of powers to Russia. It is another question how Russia will use this opportunity and how will benefit from it. Any decision adopted by Russia will be political. It means that whenever they need they may help Armenia, and also they can play a little bit and make better relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
– But Russia did not get these powers recently only because this agreement existed before that too; what they did is that they prolonged the term of duration.
– True. But it is also true that there are new essential elements in that agreement as well. It may not be so important for Armenia, but it is very important for Russia, because the leverages are in the hands of Russia. Don’t forget that nothing serious happened in 2000 as the Russians were standing in Abkhazia and Ossetia. They only added some from there and Georgia collapsed. How was it justified? Did they justify it with the agreements or documents they had before? Medvedev made everything clear according to the provisions of the existing agreements. That is why any step that Russia may take in our region in the future can be justified with the agreement with Armenia. Russia made this agreement for herself. That is why Armenia should understand that there is danger and benefit in everything. They speak about benefits a lot in our country (the Russians will protect us, etc.) but they don’t say anything about losses.
– What dangers do you mean?
– A country which has a lot of powers can do certain tricks. We don’t know what tricks Russia will do having this document in the pocket. They may do something in Georgia and Azerbaijan in the future and involve Armenia in that process as well. However, as Russia has got the green light, there is a new situation in the region now. Discussing such issues concerning the relations between Russia and the US may bring to mistakes. It is not done according to this logic.
– Why?
– Because the super-states have to have worries together to do such thing.
– As a privilege in the issue of Karabakh conflict settlement the government claims that concerning the conflict Russia will support Armenia but not Azerbaijan. Political Prisoner Sasun Mikayelyan opposed to this point and said, “I have not seen the direct support of the Russian or the Soviet army. Indeed Azerbaijan received that support openly and directly. In the war phase, when the resistance was broken, there were no difficulties and we could liberate one or two more regions, our movement was stopped by Russia.”
– Everybody knows that Russia provided support and weapons to both of the conflicting parties. In 1991 Russia together with the Azeri police organized the deportation of the Armenian villages. They participated in the process directly as they had put a regime in Karabakh. All these things happened but this is the correct policy, which we should not complain of. We should understand this logic and understand how Russia may behave now. Now the behavior can be the same, i.e. they can provide armament to one of the parties and bomb the other one, later protect the other one and stand against the first one.
– Do you mean that Russia is not a stabile ally as they claim to be?
– There is no stabile ally in the world as everything is about the interests. If the problem of Turkey did not exist, which is a task for the West, the West would not talk to Russia. They would never do that. This is a very serious problem. There is no long-term political apparatus in Armenia, thus they cannot make decisions according to their interests. Armenia takes part in the games of others and simply accepts or does not accept. Now, Russia has proposed and Armenia has happily agreed because they have a card to put on the table. What could Armenia do? Nothing. The psychological situation here is like somebody will come to save us, someone will tell this to Turkey, etc. This means that there is no political planning which would decide what should be done. For example, let’s take the issue of Karabakh recognition. It is funny to see the understanding they have about this issue. They don’t have strategy and they don’t know what will the certain steps give them. If you don’t know that, you are not doing anything and introducing it as a policy, which does not bring to any results. Time requires very serious approach to issues. They may spend one hundred years in quarrelling whether to recognize Karabakh or no.
– It seems the opposition ANC does not tend to the recognition of Karabakh.
– What does make the ANC different? Nothing.
– Different from which powers?
– The incumbent government. Their policies in strategic issues are the same – situation approach. They have a strategy not to make extra steps and stay in they way they are and try to compromise… You don’t get any answer when you ask how they are going to solve a certain problem by compromising all the time. This is not good. Political powers, opposition or government, have to have the answers to all questions. It is not like that in our country. They say that they will do it and we will see what will happen and that if we listened to them certain things would not happen. This is a way to escape from answers. There are concrete issues, and the answers should be concrete too. If Azerbaijan is speaking with the language of threats for more than 15 years, what is the mechanism of reaching a compromise solution? It’s more than 15 years no one answers this question.
– The ANC leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan has spoken about this issue for many times.
– I have never heard the answer from him so far. He says he does not know what can be done to the issue of Karabakh. I remember that well. This was his correct answer. Of course he does not know because nobody knows the answer to this question.
– Do you think the ANC will be able to fulfill its promise and change the government this fall?
– The problem is that whether this issue will be addressed seriously or no. This issue was already taken out of the agenda in August 2008. Due to foreign policy issues this issue was taken out of the agenda and has not been raised so far. On August 1, 2008, there was a concrete issue, which was the fact that Serzh Sargsyan had usurped the power and we would raise the flag to remove him. The only thing was missing was the tactics, but later they removed the issue from the agenda and proposed cooperation to the government. Now the question is that whether this issue will be raised again or no. Now there is nothing like that.
– Now they are developing the notion of the establishment of a new opposition power, which will be based not on the image of a leader but ideology. Do you think there is a need for that and whether it is not the government’s project?
– I think no. It is not a government project as the people who are speaking of it are the loyalists of the ANC. So it is excluded. I think this is the result of 2008. A very interesting process has started in the political sector as the civic status of the opposition parties has changed. In Armenia the entire public has never criticized any movement leader. Who could develop any demands to Karen Demirchyan or Stepan Demirchyan? There have not been such things. Since 2008 the society started developing demands to the opposition leaders. People are not blind and they don’t agree with everything the leaders tell them anymore. They have their demands or they say that this or that thing has been done wrong. This is where I see this new wave. It is evident, and it is another issue whether it will take place or the government will use it or no. It is a very healthy thing and the work experience shows that often very good things are happening because of that. The legal consciousness is becoming deeper in Armenia and people raise the right issues now. Now it is very difficult to speak to the people as a new saviour.
– Do you think the authorities are afraid of the opposition?
– Such oligarchic powers have their characteristics. These people do not suspect in anything. They strongly believe that nothing can endanger them, even if they are on the threshold of collapse, they still think they are very strong. In such societies changes started happening when the ruling oligarchic power at least understood that the society has found the way how to punish them. When they see that they may be punished, they are making changes. In such situation they are resigning buy cutting some deals with the opposition (they will not use force, violate elections, etc.) because they know that if they don’t do that, they will be punished. This consciousness does not exist in Armenia yet and I don’t thik political powers are ready to talk to the authorities like this either. It means that they should never stay without punishment. The events of March 1 were the result of this malformation. The authorities had calculated and saw that they would not be punished, thus they used their power to take the opposition out of the agenda in a short period of time. If they didn’t do that, I believe the potential would be more rational. We can’t rely on the tradition in Armenia that has been created through the masses, the big quantity of people… In authoritarian systems it gives results, when everything depends on one person and eventually he escapes. This is a strong oligarchic system from the bottom to the top. There are other methods of struggling against them such as the club method. That is why I don’t understand the opposition’s reasons for stopping the movement. The authorities had to see that danger and understand that they would be punished for any mistake. It didn’t happen, that is why they continue doing the same. As soon as someone goes to the square, he police makes him go. All oligarchs have a weak place, which they cannot cure; it is the fact that all their staff and people depend on interests and material things. Thus none of them will do things that are dangerous for their life. This is the weakness of this system, that is why it falls down as soon as the society stands up. They just run like mice. In Singapore and Ireland they understood and did that way. In Armenia a new political power should be established, which must know how to deal with these people who adore the interests and their own skin. We failed to establish such power since 2008. It is bringing to balance now.