The incidents on the Azerbaijani-Armenian line of June 18 come to prove that at this moment the risk of the war resumption is bigger than ever. This is the opinion of Gerard Chaliand, an international expert in armed conflict studies and international and strategic relations. The latter is a member of Civilitas foundation established by the former foreign affairs minister of Armenia Vardan Oskanyan. And yesterday he was participating in the discussion organized by the foundation. Chaliand spoke about the current situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, remarking, “My impression of Karabakh is that the probability of a war is bigger than before. I will talk to you as a strategist, someone willing to understand the perception of the other side. If I was Azeri, I believe that at one point or another I would be for war, because the situation has been at a standstill. War does solve problems up to a certain point. And it creates new opportunities for the winner. A surprise is something we should be prepared to face. The surprise will be very short because the Russians will intervene – they are the ultimate arbiter of the situation in this region and the peace keeper.” Chaliand just returned from his fourth visit to Karabakh, in which he met with Karabakh officials. He also visited the front lines. Russia is not only an arbiter Chaliand insisted. “On paper, the countries which are rather friendly to the Armenian position are Iran, China – few people know that China is interested in Armenia — and to a large extent, Russia. Russia is interested in keeping Armenia because you always like an ally who has no choice but to remain your ally because there is no alternative. Russia will always be interested in Armenia, and it does help Russia to keep Azerbaijan dependent by the fact that Armenian troops are in Karabakh.” “The bombardment on part of Azerbaijan will take place not on the first, second or third lines of the border but will also include Stepanakert. It is very important for you to be ready to protect the people in shelters and maximally decrease the number of victims because one of the problems of Karabakh is demographic. The NKR is not the country to abide with the loss of 10.000 people.” As observed by the analyst there is only one way to avoid war, “Armenia should accept compromises. I am not the one to decide this. The authorities of the country should take this step. In order to avoid collision they should immediately take concrete steps. How much longer can they maintain the same direction and not change a single comma in the documents. We lack in wise and realistic approach.” According to the analyst the positions of Armenia are quite vulnerable. “Today I don’t see any country in the Middle East that could compete with Turkey. But Armenia is an isolated state and has a very few friends among its neighbors. In the aspect of documents only Iran, Russia and China have positive attitude to Armenia,” ensured Chailand. When speaking about the self-determination right Chailand said that in the world there are self-determination “movements” that reached their goals. “For example, in the case of Kosovo, who would ever believe that Kosovo would win? But it was the decision of the US and it made Kosovo independent. Now is there any country in the world that supports the independence of the NKR? I doubt that because if there were such states we would at least know about that. We should understand that we deal with two countries, one of which is weak and doesn’t have much to offer or sell. But the other one is a wealthy state, which has oil. If you are a weak and vulnerable state then you cannot fully control your destiny on your own,” he said. During a conversation with us, when speaking of the mistakes of Armenia Chailand said, “I have not seen any initiatives undertaken during the past several years in the political arena. Armenia should have been able to establish a democratic system, work in the direction of economy development and be more concrete in the negotiation process.” Chaliand discussed the change in Turkey’s role in the last century. “Today, Turkey is still grappling with its image. “Turkey today is at the same time a moderately Muslim state with secular remnants and a very strong nationalist state,” said Chaliand. “They have all the cards in their hands to play Muslim with the Muslims and nationalist with the nationalists.” Chaliand was not hopeful about the situation between Turkey and Armenia: “The protocols were not very intelligent. I don’t see why on the problem of genocide a common Turkish and Armenian commission. It’s a bit like you would make a common commission between the Germans – a Germany that did not accept the events of 1942-45 – and the Jews to discuss what happened in World War II. Also, supposedly because there is nothing about Karabakh in the protocols, this will be forgotten? The border is closed because of Karabakh. The border is not closed because of the Genocide. It was a trick that ended up demonstrating that Turkey is ready for negotiation and it’s Armenia looking like it’s making all the difficulties.” But there are things Armenia can be doing, Chaliand insisted. “I think it would help to have economic growth, a more democratic system, and a more subtle and imaginative foreign policy,” he said. When responding to the question as to how can we trust the security guarantees provided by the super states if in the contact line of Azerbaijan and Armenia Azerbaijan keeps stating that these military actions will not stop till the “occupied territories” are returned, Chailand said, “If i was able to answer this question i would receive a 100 thousand prize.” As of the upcoming visit of Clinton to Armenia the analyst thinks that not much will be changed after that. “I don’t think that a lot will be changed after Clinton’s visit but let me say that she will visit here to ask quite cruel questions with a clear agenda.”
