– According to your opinion, what issues were solved as a result of the meeting with participation of Erdogan, Sargsyan and Obama in Washington?
– The purpose of the meeting was the ratification of the protocols and opening the Armenian-Turkish border. This is the first phase of the entire process; the second phase is the settlement of Karabakh conflict. What did happen indeed? Turkey was demanding to register progress in the issue of Karabakh before opening the border, and the US did not like this idea. It is true that in this phase the US was for the interests of Armenia. The pressure was directed on Turkey in order to open the borders to open a way for the implementation of the principles of Madrid. In the next phase the pressure would be directed on Armenia to return the five regions surrounding Karabakh. Turkey had the goal not to let Obama speak of the issue of the Genocide in order to show to Azerbaijan that they are loyal to their ally and will not give place to compromises. And in fact Turkey did it. As a result of that we entered another phase, in which during the meeting of Obama and Erdogan they announced that there had been an agreement on the roadmap of Armenia-Turkey reconciliation. Even there was a publication that the issue of returning the five regions surrounding Karabakh would be included in the roadmap as well. During the meeting with Erdogan the US president promised to do his best to fasten the process of Karabakh conflict settlement. By the way, during this meeting Erdogan asked why Ilham Aliyev had not been invited to Washington, thus one more time hinting on the connection of the Karabakh conflict with this issue as well. Turkey solved its issue for this phase of the process.
– According to your opinion, what points have been added to this renovated version of Madrid principles? What are these provisions that the Armenian government does not want to speak of? Indeed Azerbaijan announced that these are acceptable besides several points.
– The Russian co-chairman Youri Merzlyakov said there are no new things in the renovated principles of Madrid, and the additions are the recommendations of the parties. There cannot be any serious changes there. The Armenian government is pushing the issue of Karabakh’s independence. Azerbaijan’s announcement that they mostly agree with these changes is a diplomatic trick and if they say that they don’t agree with certain provisions, these concern the status of Karabakh. The Armenian foreign minister says that we agree with the principles of Madrid as a ground for the negotiations too. This is a diplomatic struggle. The Azerbaijani party has originated some confusion here.
– Among the six discovered points of the principles of Madrid the status of Karabakh was in the fourth place. The first one was the return of lands. Don’t you think that by pushing the issue of Karabakh’s independence to the first place the Armenian government indirectly rejects this document unlike their assurances that it cannot be a ground for negotiations on the issue of Karabakh?
– Of course I have said that these are not principles but a draft agreement. Now, when the Armenian government says that the status of Karabakh is in the priority, the document of Madrid loses its importance. The goal of the document of Madrid is to reach a satisfactory agreement over the issue and enable the international peacekeepers come to the region.
– Does this mean that by signifying the status of Karabakh as a priority and adopting the ruling of the Constitutional Court the Armenian government rejected the principles of Madrid and protocols?
– The ruling of the Constitutional Court annulated the pro-Turkish provisions in the protocols, for which that country had agreed with that document. And it was logical for Armenia to give up on the process because the reasonable term had passed. The new thing is that as a result of Armenia’s announcements on prioritizing the status of Karabakh the logic of the principles of Madrid does not work anymore. Simply the Armenian party diplomatically says that we are accepting it as a ground for the process. This is a new thing in the negotiations.
– Does this mean that Serzh Sargsyan is giving up on the Armenian-Turkish and conflict settlement processes which he has initiated himself?
– No, Serzh Sargsyan was not the one to start these two processes. The principles of Madrid were adopted in 2007. As for the Armenian-Turkish process, there were negotiations during Kocharyan’s tenure too. Thus both of these processes are coming from those years. In November 2007 Turkey made an announcement that if the new government of Armenia applied to them with a request to develop relations, they would do that.
– This announcement was addressed at the new government, and Kocharyan said that he would not invite Gull to Armenia.
– These differences of opinions of Kocharyan and Sargsyan concern the tactical steps only. The process comes from the times of Kocharyan. On February 21 Abdullah Gull congratulated Serzh Sargsyan and said he hoped that during his tenure the relations between the two countries would develop, and on April 21, 2008, the Turkish foreign minister Ali Babajan said, “Turkey wants to see peace, stability security and prosperity in the region. But our relations with Armenia don’t fit with this logic. We have problems and the only way to solve these problems is dialogue.” On July 5 Serzh Sargsyan invited Gull to Armenia. If you follow the timeline, you will see that the one to make the first step toward the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation was not Armenia. From the point of football diplomacy maybe Armenia was the first. The initiative came from Turkey, and it started in the past. This process was obliged from outside, and it is connected with the issue of Karabakh too. The initiative came from the US, and they see the solution of the issue through opening the border on the part of Turkey and returning lands on the part of Armenia. During this process Turkey had to stay calm in relation to the issue of Karabakh. Thus, as a result of the process an agreement would be reached and international peacekeepers would be deployed in the region. If Turkey succeeds in convincing the domestic powers and Azerbaijan that after opening the border their influence in the region and Armenia will grow, they will do it. However in the current situation Turkey does not have this option. In the domestic environment the opposition will not agree with that, and Azerbaijan will claim Turkey is betraying. Plus, Armenia will not give the lands because it has announced the status of Karabakh the highest priority.
– But the negotiations are active and the US, after having initiated this process, wants to show results. You say that if in this phase they are pressing on Turkey, in the next phase they will press on Armenia.
– It is not the first time that there is such situation. The US has had other plans, which were failed too. The US co-chairman in the Minsk Group Cary Cavano announced that the presidents were ready for settlement but the people were not. The version of Meghri in 1999 was initiated by the US as well, but it failed too. Now they are trying to press on and convince Turkey, Azerbaijan that it is important and a global issue is being solved, after which they will solve the issue of Karabakh. They will keep pressure on Armenia to in order not to let her go out of the process. However I don’t see a solution now because the stances of the parties are too far from each other. The Armenian security council discussed the issue of opening the border at the time when the protocols were signed. Later they said that they had instructed the government to discuss the issue. Has any state institution officially published a document saying what the positive or negative results stemming out of the opening of the borders might be. No. Because it has not been calculated here; it was obliged from outside.
– You are always speaking of the US. Russia is represented in the MG as well, and after the visit to Washington the Armenian president left for Moscow and discussed these issues with president Medvedev too.
– The Russian foreign minister Lavrov announced that Russia’s participation in the Armenian-Turkish process is limited with their participation in the ceremony of signing the protocols in Zurich. In addition, Putin said that they welcomed that initiative which means that they were not the one to initiate the process. But despite not being the initiator of this process, Russia cannot stay apart from a process, which may harm its influence in the region.