– Mr. Shahnazaryan, can we assume that after the recent developments the protocols dedicated to normalizing Armenia-Turkey relations are failed?
– The Armenian-Turkish relations weren’t built on these protocols. Due to soccer diplomacy a situation is formed, by which the parties and mediators know that this process doesn’t have a future. Now the game is who’s going to carry the responsibility of failing the process. The revision of the RA law on international treaties is connected with that. The Armenian parliament will be the first to ratify the protocols. After that Sargsyan will have to decide to recall the protocols or not. Or they might as well call back the protocols indeed if there is no progress in the NKR conflict resolution. And the statements that they are going to ratify after Turkey are not convincing. In that case why had they made a legislative amendment?
– Why was it necessary for the US Congress’s foreign relations committee to adopt the resolution 252 in favor of recognition of the Armenian Genocide?
– As a result of the process the US received new levers to use those during its communication with Turkey. Currently there are various issues in the US-Turkey relations. And of those questions is the further process of Turkey-Iran relations, which is not beneficial for the US. The role of Turkey in the Middle East in the peace process in Afghanistan and Black Sea sector is also very important for the US. The US is also concerned with the prospects of development of energetic projects between Turkey and Russia. One of the concerning issues is the future destiny of the US military bases in Turkey. As of resolution 252 then it is evident that there won’t be a full session of Congress to discuss this issue. I think that once this issue is clarified the Turkish Ambassador will return to the US. This is not the first case that Turkey is using this step. I think that Turkey and the US will find the way to help President Obama save his face and not to mention the word genocide in his April 24th traditional speech.
– Thus, the role of the Armenian lobbying organizations wasn’t that big in regard of the adoption of this resolution.
– In my deep conviction if they had invested 30-40% of these efforts in the NKR conflict resolution we would have had tangible results. I challenge not to ignore this and remember that we still face the NKR conflict. If they are working with the Congressmen and are lobbying in the direction of the genocide recognition they might as well initiate certain steps in the favorable resolution of the NKR conflict. But they don’t do this. Why? Because this is what’s profitable for them. Yes, I blame them of ignoring this key issue. Azerbaijan’s advocacy war is quite wide-spread and let us sincerely confess that the volumes of this bring them serious results. Both the Armenian government and the Diaspora don’t do anything in this regard and do not participate in the information war.
– You mentioned that after this resolution the US had attained additional levers on Turkey. But the reaction of Turkey shows that they are not essentially pressured. Even they are doing the opposite by threatening the US.
– We should realize that currently the US has fewer levers to pressure on Armenia the other way around. And the Armenian-Turkish border will not be opened as long as there is no progress in the NKR conflict resolution. Moreover, it seems that this is the final phase of these protocols when they are going to determine who failed the process and who should be responsible for the failure. It is excluded that the Turkish parliament can ever ratify the protocols without essential change in the NKR conflict on behalf of Azerbaijan.
– If the mediators doubt the successful completion of the rapprochement then why are they encouraging the parties to continue the process?
– Let us assume for a moment that the protocols are ratified and the parties have started to work. Every single gathering of the historians’ commission is going to be full with scandals. Regardless of the fact that the Armenian government is denying this Turkey and the high-rank officials of Turkey have stated that the future of the genocide issue can only be solved in the framework of this commission. This means that even after ratification I strongly believe that these protocols don’t have any practical and feasible future. This commission will explode any process. As a result of protocols and the process Turkey has received the most part of its wishes but the Armenian side has only had losses. Turkey needed the process and not the results and the Armenian government needed results. There will be no result and I think the process won’t stretch for too long. And the mediators are very sincere and it’s not the first year that they are trying to resolve the existing issues and open the border. The mediators and first of all the US overestimated these opportunities and now they perfectly understand that the protocols cannot be the basis of the dialog between Turkey and Armenia. On the other hand Turkey due to its shortsighted policy instigated that the genocide recognition process takes on positive shift.
– What results have the sides come to in the process of the NKR conflict resolution?
– And ambiguous situation is created. First of all after and before the Sochi meeting several functions were launched, which are seemingly directed against the OSCE Minsk Group format. I see processes proceeding in parallel with the Minsk Group tendencies and processes debilitating the role of the Minsk Group. The evidence of that are the initiatives of Iran and Kazakhstan. For me the joint initiative of France and Russia was strange, where the name of the Minsk Group is not mentioned. So far Armenia is not expressing any standpoint and is incessantly adverting to the agreement made in Sochi, according to which the sides should present written viewpoints. Also an impression is created that Azerbaijan is doing everything to fail or annihilate the Minsk Group format. It is very hard to draw such conclusions from unclear statements of the Armenian government. I’d like to remind that the Minsk Group is fist of all beneficial for us. Azerbaijan has numerously tried to fail the Minsk Group format. Now it seems they have switched roles. But Armenia needs to understand that even though Azerbaijan at least tactically is supporting the Minsk process then it will definitely benefit from the possibility of the latter’s failure.
– What is the result of these separate initiatives?
– On part of Russia I notice a process in parallel with the Minsk Group. And in general the Turkish-Russian cooperation within the frames of energetic, military and security projects should be worrisome for us. And it is necessary to take adequate steps in this process. The RA hasn’t yet expressed an opinion regarding the amended and revised version of the Madrid principles. But I think that it will have to do so as during the upcoming meetings with the Minsk Group co-chairs the latter will demand that Armenia does so. A qualitative change has been registered in the negotiations because Azerbaijan has given its consent. As a rule, the opposite was meant to happen. And after this the Armenian side is confused. By the way, this document was handed to the Armenian side before the Sochi meeting. And the NKR conflict should be viewed in the context of the Russian-American context. It is evident that the two sides will never come to an agreement with each other. It means that either this situation is remaining or there is going to be a very strong Russian-American joint pressure. Or there is the second possibility that is the war but at the moment there is little threat for that. It is no bigger than 2-3 months ago but I don’t exclude that this possibility may grow in the near future.
– Last week the US Department of State published the human rights report 2009, following which Serzh Sargsyan was invited to Washington. What is hidden behind these processes?
– I think the report is very realistic because it clearly describes the bad situation with human rights and political prisoners in Armenia. Following the publication of this report Serzh Sargsyan was invited to Washington to take part in the energetic security conference. As Washington sees that there may be no improvement in the relations between Armenia and Turkey without an improvement in the issue of Karabakh, I think the main efforts will be targeted at finding a solution out of this situation around the issue of Karabakh and returning the process to the Minsk Group. Thus they will demand a clear position toward the new recommendations from Armenia. There may even speak of the timeline. In other words, Sargsyan will have a difficult visit in Washington.