Russia will ultimately lose in the region if the Armenian-Turkish protocols proposed by the NATO and the United States are ratified. In two months after signing the protocols Turkey will have to open the borders. It is also possible that the Armenian-Azeri border may be open too in the near future because it is not possible that in parallel with this process a peace agreement may be signed too. Even if the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan stays closed, the open borders with Turkey will support the penetration of the NATO and US in Armenia.
The final goal of the West is to have control in the region as it is more than a dozens of years that the US and Israel have been trying to have control in the region and the Caspian Sea, which is full of oil. In order to reach this goal, they wanted the three countries of Caucasus (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan) go out of the hands of the Russian bear. The US and NATO have succeeded in this work. The West has already built two big pipelines from Azerbaijan to the coast of the Caspian Sea through Georgia and Turkey. The US insists on building the pipes in a manner to bypass Russia and Iran. As a result Armenia has become the only ally of Russia in the region, which is the only obstacle for the US to have total control in the region. By convincing Turkey to open the borders the US is trying to separate Armenia from Russia and take it into the modern, rich and democratic Western union, NATO.
Armenia’s importance in the US strategy: The US was satisfied with Armenia’s blockade resulted from the last year’s war in Georgia. Washington hoped that the blockade resulted from the war of Karabakh would help to settle that conflict. It is worth mentioning that the only intermediating factor for opening an Azeri-Armenian-Turkish corridor can be the peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict and the US wants it too.
The war in Georgia shows that they cannot be sure if this country would be able to transit the pipes to the West. Thus, the only alternative for the US was Armenia. This is the reason why the US is trying to influence on Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey all the time in order to solve their disputes and open a new way to the Caspian region.
What does Russia think about this issue?
Russia’s strategic mistake: It was a long time that the issue with the Armenian-Turkish border was in the interests of the Kremlin. It was an obstacle for the US to penetrate in Armenia and dominate in the countries of Caucasus. According to different sources of information, currently Russia encourages the development of the Armenian-Turkish relations and peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict. Russia hopes that the trade connections as a result of open borders between Armenia and Turkey will bring a lot of profits as most part of the Armenian economy is controlled by Russia. The Kremlin is also afraid that a new war between Russia and Georgia may hit and shock Armenia’s economy again as the main transit routes are through Georgia. During the recent years Moscow and Ankara have developed very important economic and political relations. Accordingly, Moscow thinks that they can tell Ankara what to do. It doesn’t matter how closer Turkey may cooperate with Russia, still it is a member of NATO. This is the mistake of the Kremlin. Even more, definitely Turkey and Georgia will establish a new alternative source of energy and won’t be vulnerable by Russia any more. During this time Russia will have to give Armenia to the West. Russia is trying to buy oil and gas reserves from Azerbaijan too as it hopes as a result the West will lose the interest to Azerbaijan. Russia is openly influencing on Armenia to give Karabakh to Azerbaijan. This is a very wrong policy. In the history the Azeri people have always let the Russians down. Thus, as a result of this policy Armenia will be very disappointed from Russia and the Western prospects will attract Armenia, and Russia will eventually lose Armenia. Only the real unity on part of Russia without any military and economic discrimination can keep Armenia being their partner. The fright of Armenia toward Turkey is not enough yet.
Russian policy mistaken: Russia has an experience of many years to implement a wrong policy. During 75 years Russia lost two empires. It lost the cold war too. The oil and gas Russia has now, which is a tool of economic influence, is not a result of their policy but a gift by the nature. Especially Alexander Dugin has influenced much on the policy of the recent times on part of the Kremlin. As many other Russian experts, Dugin used to believe that Armenia was the biggest obstacle for them on the way to Turkey. Dugin has changed his mind. Now he thinks Turkey is Russia’s ally. The Russian government governed by Medvedev and Putin still listens to the advises of fake preachers. Russia may press Turkey’s hand but not break it. On the other hand, the Turks are trying to convince the Russians that they have become friends. The Russians are throwing their only ally Armenia into the mouth of the Turkish wolf. Russia will lose Armenia but it won’t attract Turkey.
Reject the dangerous protocols: The Armenians should openly reject the Armenian-Turkish “protocols”. Besides the right that the protocol gives Armenia’s neighbor that committed genocide it is also a formula of control over Armenia on part of Turkey. If the border is to be open, it should be done in a manner not to let the Turks penetrate into Armenia, buy and control it. The Armenians should openly tell Russia that the “protocols” will blockade Russia by NATO and will collapse it, and Armenia as well.
David BOYAJYAN