Another victory of Armenian diplomacy or possible collapse?

10/09/2009 Arman NAVASARDYAN

The main players of the international arena – the US, Russia and Europe are trying to destroy the last rudimentary scraps of the Cold War. First, the wall of Berlin fell, and then the Green Line was opened, which separates Cyprus from its neighbor, Northern Turkish Republic. And it seems that now it is the turn of Armenia and Turkey. And all this is done not because of the strong love of the western states in relation of the Armenians and Turks. They are only advocating their geopolitical interests in the region. Thus, the pressure on Ankara and Yerevan will continue till the relations between the two states are normalized. Does this contradict our interests? Not at all. What about the Turkish interests? Again, no. Moreover, both we and the Turks wish for the establishment of diplomatic relations and each of the countries has its goals and objectives. It is worth mentioning that the government, which preceded the incumbent government, also signified the normalization of relations with Turkey. The opposition has the same attitude now. After the publication of the recent documents the ANC, headed by Ter-Petrosyan, welcomed the steps of the Armenian diplomacy aimed at the regulation of the Armenian-Turkish relations by considering the protocols as an essential step toward this objective. But if the Kocharyan-Oskanyan tandem criticizes the foreign policy of the government reproduced and supported by them, then in the Yerevan slang it is their problem. Such an attitude is first of all a consequence of the lack of political culture and perhaps a consequence of a postulate of one of Armenia’s former minister, who said that “Armenia may survive in a blockade for another 100 years.” In this background, mildly said, it is unclear and indecent to agree with the standpoint of open of the representatives of the governmental elite, which occupies business class suites in the political Olympus thank to the current president. And the efforts of the party headed by the latter are so low-quality and are so archaic that harm instead of bringing use. The current president Sargsyan is not lucky in his propaganda machine, which last year demonstrated a very low behavior by reaching the level of the anti-propaganda. The current situation requires that the ministry of foreign affairs is more flexible. But I don’t think in its general behavior it fully reflects the foreign policy of the government. So it turns out to be asymmetry. That is the reason, which causes discontent among the people. They don’t understand what actually is going on. Instead of a simple explanation we hear glorifying and lofty words from the ministry of foreign affairs and in particular from the minister Edward Nalbandyan. Same stuff but this time with bad Armenian. We have learned all that by heart within the 10 years. It is a real déjà vu. This irrelevant confidentiality, secrets of Spanish castles, which have long ago been known to the very last grocery shopper of Istanbul. Meanwhile the regular citizen wishes to know what he/she needs to know, anything that relates to the personal interest of the citizen. Isn’t this natural? The foreign affairs ministry should realize one more thing as well. There is no drummed victory. It doesn’t exist just like that. Only the first steps are taken. Ahead we have a long-lasting and tough negotiation process, which will be too far from a peaceful symposium. It will be a cruel collision with the diplomacy of centennial experience. The possibility of not losing the process will mean victory by itself. As I mentioned the establishment of diplomatic relations with our neighbors comes from our own interests. Let us agree that besides all of this it is hard to breathe the same air with the eternal enemy. It is 21st century. So perhaps there would be no political forces in Armenia, which would think any differently than this. In that case, how can we understand the tornado that was raised in the Diaspora and in Armenia after the publication of the two protocols between Armenia and Turkey? The society is only concerned that the negotiations are conducted based on pre-conditions. But those are not included in the protocols, which is already very good. But at any rate it is possible to underhand people because our countries have bloody histories and problems, which became firmer over years. By pre-condition they first of all mean the issue of the Genocide. It is no doubt that regardless of the format of the to-be-created committee the Turks will do their best to exclude the issue of the genocide. It is already the issue of the Armenian diplomats to avoid the unwanted consequences. The second issue that concerns the society is the borders and territories. Indeed, there is fear that the establishment of diplomatic elations may bury the prospects of Armenian’s demand from Turkey. But here the world doesn’t end either. There is also space for maneuvering for the Armenian side at least by claiming that the treaties, such as the Sever Treaty, are incomplete. At any rate, most probably the time came that we make the right choice among the lost lands, blockade emancipation, international integration and globalization with all of its dividends, which we need so much. In other words, we should make a choice between the state and national interests, to which we are not quite ready. As of the NKR, indeed the Turks will try to connect the regulation of the conflict with the opening of the borders even if it is not fixed in the protocols. In order to avoid this decoy the Armenian side will need super efforts, high diplomatic crafts and elaborated negotiation techniques. And I think the last one is very important. The leadership of Armenia has gone through the diplomatic and there can be no come-back. There can be no ambiguous opinions either. So shall we move forward or cling tightly to the infantile omissions, which have guided us for centuries. I think the question implies the only correct answer, which we should give.