– According to your opinion, in which phase is the process of Karabakh conflict settlement?
– If you mean the current process of negotiations, we may assert that the Armenian party has lost. There is no provision beneficial to Armenia in the principles of Madrid.
– There is another opinion as well, according to which the provision writing that “the final clarification of the status of Karabakh shall be based on the will established by the law” is an achievement and the conflict will be settled in favor of Karabakh.
– There was no provision like that in the previous drafts but these drafts were discussed by the state bodies and were not approved, however the principles of Madrid were discussed confidentially and accepted as basement for the conflict settlement negotiations. Why are they speaking of a referendum? There has been a referendum in Karabakh and it has gone out of Azerbaijan’s territory according to the Soviet law. In fact when we adopt the principles of Madrid, we put this issue under question as well. Second, they don’t say where exactly the mentioned referendum will be. This is a diplomatic trick to make the Armenian party sign the document and taken on an intermediary solution of the problem. Anyway if it has to be done, the Armenian party should demand to organize this referendum first, and then give the territories later. Or these two processes should be done in parallel with each other. They shouldn’t give the territories, change the security situation unfavorable for Karabakh and then think about organizing a referendum. This version is the diplomatic trick promoted by the co-chairmen and the godfather of this version is the US. This version is in the interests of the US and Turkey.
– Is it important for the US whether Karabakh is in the territory of Azerbaijan or independent?
– No, it is not even important to Turkey. For Turkey the most important thing is the Nakhijevan-Meghri-Azerbaijan connection in order to force Russia out of the region. This is the idea that unites Turkey and America. Recently the Turkish defense minister announced in the US that Turkey and the US had to do everything in order to separate Armenia from Russia and Iran in order it turns to the West. Azerbaijan is interested in forcing Russia out as well because they think that Russia backs Armenia. They think that Armenia has won due to Russia. In connection with the issue of Karabakh the Turkish policy is not free because of Azerbaijan. Some time ago Aliyev came up with an announcement and said that if the border was opened they would raise the price of gas. Turkey is paying 80-90 dollars for the gas supplied by Azerbaijan in case when it buys gas from Russia at 450 dollars, and from Egypt – 400 dollars.
– The processes connected with the conflict of Karabakh and Armenian-Turkish relations are going very fast but it seems that the negotiations are in a deadlock.
– During the entire process of negotiations there have been times when they said that the issue would be solved soon but the conflict has not been settled so far. Do you remember that the negotiations were focused on the version of Meghri, and Kocharyan fired the officials who were against that version, and his actions were welcomed by a number of officials from Georgia, Azerbaijan, America and Turkey and they announced that the change of the power was good and it would bring a solution to the conflict of Karabakh and would bring peace to the region. However after this version was failed, the US co-chairman said that the presidents were ready, but the people were against. Now the co-chairmen are saying the same thing. Their interests demand a fast solution, and it is another issue what the solution will be like. They need a corridor and land connection with Afghanistan. It is about having regional military basements and influence in the region.
– A number of events are expected such as the renovated version of Madrid principles, replacement of the co-chairmen and the possible visit of Serzh Sargsyan to Turkey. What kind of solutions do you see in this context?
– There will not be any improvement in the coming months, they want to make the process faster but it is very hard to find a solution in connection with the settlement of Karabakh conflict. The same concerns the issue of opening the Armenian-Turkish border. In the framework of solving the problem of having regional influence it is important for the US to re-open the Armenian-Turkish border, and it may apply pressure on its strategic partner Turkey by using the issue of the Armenian genocide. At this point I don’t see any prospective of opening the border. The Turkish government wants to open the border with Armenia because Armenia is a hindrance for it to solve the problem with influence in the region. After opening the border Turkey will get tools and leverages of political and economic influence. However in case of opening the border on the one hand Azerbaijan will accuse Turkey in treason, on the other hand the society will accuse the Turkish government because there are anti-Armenian moods in the Turkish society.
– In fact Azerbaijan is an important factor in the region.
– It’s the vice versa, Armenia is the factor because the key to the settlement of Karabakh conflict is in the hands of Armenia.
– Is Armenia still a factor now when there are rumors on returning the 7 regions?
– You are right, there are rumors about it. But it will not happen if they continue this way. One of the reasons is the fact that Azerbaijan does not agree with the principles of Madrid, even if these are amended to be more favorable to them. During the process of negotiations Armenia has done all the possible compromises. The key to the solution is in the hands of Armenia. The strategy of the negotiations should be changed.
– Don’t the Armenian authorities realize this fact? What does not let them to restrict their approach like Aliyev is doing?
– The process of negotiations went wrongly since 1998 when because of the Armenian party’s fault Karabakh was left out of the negotiations and the issue of Meghri was brought in onto the agenda. The Armenian party has compromised a lot with the hope that after that the intermediates will apply pressure on Azerbaijan and it will agree to recognize Karabakh’s independence. Besides that Armenia is under pressure now because of the marred elections and the events of March 1. This issue from time to time is raised or ignored during the negotiations, which depends on Armenia’s policy and approach. In order to correct the situation the parties should return to the real picture and the fact that Azerbaijan was the one to start the war, and the one guilty in the results of the war is Azerbaijan. The conflict is trilateral and it is impossible to negotiate without the participation of Karabakh. Azerbaijan should raise the issue of refugees, the Armenian territories occupied by Azerbaijan, and communications.