During the period of May 9-12 the APR Group research center conducted telephone social polls among 663 residents of Yerevan, which related to the mayoral election of Yerevan to take place on May 31. The research was conducted among Yerevan residents ranging from 18 years old and above. According to the methodology the poll results provide 4% of truthfulness of data. As a result of research a number of important concerns of our society were revealed. Therefore, in order not to imitate those numbers as comprised of pre-election moods and ridiculous those need additional interpretation. For this reason let us first present the mechanical picture of the survey and then we’ll proceed to the expertise. “If the elections were to be held this Sunday which of the parties would you vote for?” The answers were the following: RPA – 21.7%, Prosperous Armenia – 14.1%, ANC – 4.8%, ARF – 2%.
Prosperous Armenia – 14.1%
People’s Party – 0.6%
RPA – 21.7%
ARF – 2.0%
ANC – 4.8%
Legal State – 0.8%
Against everybody – 2.0%
Not sure – 54.0%
It’s noteworthy that according to the polls the swing voters amount to 54%.
By the way in order not to influence on the free will of the respondents the list of the parties was read in a sequence with the names of the first three in the proportional lists. None of the respondents mentioned that their answer is a “secret.” The most part of the swing voters and the ones, who answered they were not sure reasoned their answer that they were not aware of the platforms of the parties. They also mentioned that their preferred party has changed its political trend. Part of them complained that they were tired of elections. “We are totally confused,” they would say. The most surprising datum of the survey was the extremely large number of swing voters, which may be explained as a doubtful activity of some of the political parties. During the recent researches the empirical conclusions about the large numbers of swing voters are the following – the ones, who prefer the radical opposition avoid or fear expressing their actual attitude and in such cases the section of undecided voters potentially support the opposition party or candidate. As mentioned above the swing voters amount to 54%. It turns out that 15.3% out of 54% of swing voters doesn’t expect positive change in the event of the victory of the opposition. It turns out that the actual undecided voters amount to 38.7%, which can easily become the voters of the opposition. It is clear that in this case it is impossible to measure in a numeric manner. 6.6% of 38.7 mentioned that they expect positive change from the ANC. It turns that in the numeric expression 4.8% of the voters agreed to vote for the ANC; another 6.6% voted for the ANC among the swing voters. There is another group of swing voters – 27.3%, which is impossible to assess in the sociological manner. Of course, as mentioned above the opinions and viewpoints are various. Many people responded, “not sure” or “undecided.” The majority of them are the ones that are going to vote for the opposition but are scared to audibly mention that. However, it is impossible to express it in a numeric manner. It is noteworthy that the index of undecided voters has drastically increased during the past two months. The evidence of this is the data of the telephone polls of the APR Group conducted on February 12-16 of 2009. A part of this research related to the March 1-2 events of 2008 and the case of seven. The highest level of the answer “not sure” – 40.1% was given to this question. Of course, it is not excluded that the peculiarity of the theme also affects the results. By returning to the high number of undecided voters connected with the mayoral race it may also be stipulated by the pre-election controversy and information. This may cause uncertainty among certain voters and fear among others. As of the potential participation in the upcoming May 31 race then 62.3% of the respondents will be participating. During the survey a very interesting motive was revealed. To the question whether on May 31 the Yerevan mayor election or election of the elderly council will be held 40.1% mentioned the first option and 12.8% had a hard time responding. The polls are conducted by the phone. The respondents were asked closed questions. The polls were conducted by the APR Group sector of the Free Society NGO. The polls were conducted by the NGO’s initiative and means. The data are publicized openly.