British journalist Thomas De Vaal, who is an expert on Caucasus and the author of the “Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan in Peace and War” book, has published an article in The Financial Times, which is entitled Let the Ghost of War Sleep in Caucasus.
The article specifically writes the following: “While the world is struggling against the first crisis of globalization, it seems that Caucasus is on the threshold of the WWI, when there was a tense struggle between empires. As the Georgian war came to show in August of last year war is not a serious danger anywhere in Europe any more. However, a bright window may open for Caucasus this summer. Russia, the US, Euro Union and Turkey, which are empires with their interests in this poor region, have united efforts for a moment. As a result they have been able to get rid of the most dangerous but yet not so significant issue of Nagorno Karabakh conflict. While the conflict was seeking a solution, in parallel a new important energetic route was opened, which is the Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan pipeline built by the British Petroleum (BP). The pipeline, which is built for pumping one million barrel oil a day, is in ten miles distance from the zone of the conflict. Due to new incomes now Azerbaijan has the fastest growing military budget in the world. Currently the money spent for military purposes in Azerbaijan exceeds the total amount of the Armenian budget. High rank officials of Azerbaijan are calling on their army to get ready for “taking Karabakh back” through a new war. This ghost of war will be very scary for the entire region. However the negotiations of a peace agreement continue to delay. The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan will discuss the peace agreement on May 7 in Prague. Both of the leaders will have to take on painful compromises. Azerbaijan will have to accept the fact that it has lost that territory, or at least will not return in the near future, but it can return the lands surrounding Karabakh. The Armenians will have to accept that they will have to return the “occupied” territories and delay the hopes of Karabakh’s independence against guarantees of sovereignty and security. The big countries don’t want to pressure. The people are actively resisting the changes, besides that the two countries have strong friends in abroad. For example, in the US the Pentagon and energetic companies are in close relations with Azerbaijan, and in the Congress there is a strong Armenian lobby. The reconciliation of Armenia and Azerbaijan will not be easy. The international community will have to revive the collapsed and free territories. Besides, the Armenians of Karabakh are always concerned of Azerbaijan’s military threat, and before signing an agreement they will demand allocation of trustful peacekeepers in the region.
However, the benefits will be fruitful not only for Armenia and Azerbaijan, but for those parties having interest in the region as well (such as the BP, Euro Union and Iran). The settlement of the conflict will be a positive stimulus for building the Nabucco pipeline to the West. However there will be peace only in case when Armenia and Azerbaijan stop the national animosity. From this point of view a good example is the precedent of Turkey and Armenia, the common history of which is more painful. If these countries can cooperate, then solidarity between the Armenian and Azeri people is possible too. Why not?”