In the opinion of western analysts the global economic crisis especially in post-Soviet states may cause inter-political destabilization based on social grounds. But this won’t happen in Armenia. As the rally of the opposition on March 1 showed or more accurately the speech of Levon Ter-Petrosyan the activity of both the government and the opposition becomes illogical in the background of foreign challenges. The steps of the government are not understandable even for non-specialists. But everything will become evident in one day or two. And besides the illusion of a stable USD needs a good explanation. As experts believe the illiterate policy of the government should have had an alternative. In this case the opposition should have brought up its own alternatives to the wrong policy of the government and instead of the messages “revolution,” “riot” and “assault” they should have offered something positive to swing voters. Even the ones, who have voted for the current government, have all the grounds to regret about that. Levon Ter-Petrosyan realistically described what the people will face in near future – poverty, unemployment, etc. What can the opposition do besides gathering the people near the Matenadaran once every two months? Ter-Petrosyan was inclined to answer that question. “Is it so hard to understand that in a few months the government will demonstrate its nudity? Because of these abstruse issues the government will break into parts. The calmer we stay, the more we save our nerves the sooner they will break. In near future the low rating of the government will equal zero. They don’t have any arguments to communicate with people,” concluded the first president. If the government breaks on its own than it will be hard to consider it the virtue or achievement of the opposition. We may insist that the advice of the first president to save nerves and use vitamins so the government collapses sooner is not a very bad option. First it doesn’t imply any risks. However, only the core of the opposition can feel good about the fact of having results without major efforts. Those are the people, who connect their fates with Levon Ter-Petrosyan, his state mindset, intellect and merits. The average citizen, who doesn’t have a job cannot wait stagnantly and expects concrete steps from the government. These people are willing to personally participate in the plans of the opposition. It means the people have the right to understand how to get out of this situation by having an untalented government and a talented opposition at least. The answer to this question may perhaps be given during the expected rallies of May 1 or July. On March 1 the first president didn’t exclude that the current government may appear in such a state that may even resign. The continuation was interesting, “I don’t exclude the fact that they may offer us to save the government and the country from collapse.” The answer of accepting or declining this suggestion depends on the people as mentioned by Ter-Petrosyan. Is there a need to find out what exactly the people or the supporters of the opposition want? We assume that it may be interesting to know that. “We should once and for all understand the following – each political force itself determines its political tactics and agenda. As it was mentioned it cannot avoid considering the degrading moods of the force but it’s not necessary to become its slave.” Special envoy of South Caucasus Peter Semneby during his last visit to Armenia seriously signified the start of a dialog between the government and the opposition. It seems this possibility is not too far. Firstly the first president of Armenia stated that the ones, who hope that the opposition is going to be aggressive, organize rallies, pickets or assault the president’s office they don’t know the tactics of the Armenian National Congress, which eradicated the words revolution or riot from its vocabulary. We need to understand that the aggressiveness has ended recently and that the phrase “24-hour protest” was the main word of the opposition. At present it is quite obvious that the opposition has adopted the policy of rushing slowly and saving serves and efforts. So the opposition will wait till the government resigns on its own. As Ter-Petrosyan mentioned months ago Serzh Sargsyan is willing to speculate around the NKR conflict for his legitimacy. What do his supporters or the ones that are against the government expect from him? The leader of the opposition excluded the conduct of a revolution, riot or an assault, “the archaic phrases revolution and riot should be excluded from our agenda.” In that case how does the opposition envision the process of change of government? According to Ter-Petrosyan, “After some time a more favorable time will be created for the opposition to initiate change of government. The right moment depends not only on objective factors but also the readiness of the society. We won’t have the right moment till new people join the movement and till the whole society gets disappointed of the government. If we do anything wrong we will fail and destroy the last hopes of the people.” Will new people join the movement or will supporters deflect from the movement? This may basically touch the radicals, who always keep in their vocabularies the words revolution and riot. At any rate the government doesn’t have any serious grounds to worry about the opposition. Moreover, as yesterday mentioned member of the governmental party, RPA deputy-chair Razmik Zohrabyan the government may grant amnesty to certain opposition prisoners as a response to the favorable and mild speech of the opposition leader. This may become a good beginning for a dialog. All is left is the willingness and desire of the government to break into part from inside.
