On these days the political analytics of Armenia are busy with analyzing the Georgian-Ossetian conflict. Moreover, the analysis proceeds in several directions – how will the conflict develop, what the influence is going to be on the internal and external policies of Armenia and whether the Armenian government adopted the right policy when dealing with the sides of the conflict? And various answers are given regarding those questions.
There is an opinion that through this war Russia even more strengthens its positions in this region. There is also an opinion that through this conflict the US and Europe will permanently enter the Transcaucasia. And everyone is sure that this is not the conflict of Georgia and Ossetia. This is conflict is between the West and Russia. There are opinions that because of this conflict the Armenian internal life will skip from the attention of the international community and also the opposite opinion is that this conflict won’t change anything for Armenia. The second disputable question is whether the attitude adopted by Armenia is right or wrong. And so political scientist Aghasi Yenokyan is sure that the attention of the world is focused on Georgia and on the other hand our region becomes a center for the Russian-American conflict. According to the political scientist if Armenia appears in the center of attention it will be hard to solve any issues here by taking a good care of Colombier and Prescott. “Of course there are other consequences as well. Sahakashvili showed how dangerous it is to be an illegitimate president. The illegitimate president sometimes has to take rapid steps to save the situation. He has to do all this to increase his legitimacy. This is simple populism,” says Yenokyan. In his opinion Russia by winning the battle lost the war and as a result of that Russia’s influence in the region will be decreased. “Russia swiftly entered the region fully armed but that harmed her international image. Everybody realized what a dangerous country Russia is. In near future the West will strengthen its positions here,” said Yenokyan and added that balanced influence of the East and West in the region is very important. In the opinion of another political scientist Stepan Grigoryan if our government shows flexible policy it is not excluded that the role of our country will be raised in the region. During the past years all the projects of the region were implemented in participation of Turkey-Azerbaijan-Georgia and Europe. They all missed Armenia. In his words the tension of Georgian-Russian relations showed that this direction is not quite reliable. “Finally at present all these lines/projects failed or at least are halted at present. The Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa oil pipelines are not functioning; all the EU projects that are being implemented in Poti port are stopped. It turned out that only through Georgia it is impossible to implement those programs. Now the sides are picking their one-sided political harvests. Armenia’s involvement in those programs would make those projects more stable. If one of the branches of the Caspian oil went through Armenia Georgia would presently be provided by oil. Russia divided Georgia into two parts and it’s quite clear that this process won’t last long. Russia will have to remove its troops. But these processes showed that if Armenia participated in the regional projects and if Turkey opened its border it would be a positive thing for Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Now I have doubts whether the Baku-Jeyhan-Tbilisi oil pipeline is functioning. In such countries it is not right to only rely on one line. This is an unpredictable region and the interests of Russia and the West collide here. Russia only hit those objects in Georgia, which were built at the expense of the US, NATO and the EU,” says Grigoryan and says that the West is trying to retrieve its positions. The political scientist is also sure that the US will bring over its navy to the Georgian ports and will increase the military support to Georgia. In Grigoryan’s words it is all about the image and reputation of the US. If the US doesn’t give an equivalent response it may debilitate its power in the Middle East. Has the Armenian government adopted the right attitude under these circumstances? Let us remember that during the Georgian-Ossetian war although a quite difficult situation was created for Armenia, such as Armenia was literally not receiving any cargo from Georgia, the Armenian tourists were running back to Armenia from Georgia in panic but RA President Serzh Sargsyan continued his vacation in Beijing, China. Sargsyan had a phone conversation with the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and only sent a condolence telegram to Sahakashvilli. “I think that at this stage the cautious behavior is right and more accurately we must play the role of a humanitarian corridor and a peacekeeper. It is very hard for Armenia to defend any of the sides. It seems that Russia is Armenia’s strategic partner and on the other hand the road of our life goes through Georgia, which is our friend. I think that in near future maintaining neutrality is important,” says Grigoryan. Yenokyan thinks that this conflict showed that the Armenian government doesn’t have much information about the geopolitical situation and are not able to find political solutions. “At any rate their passive behavior speaks of that and a real political government must be formed in Armenia as soon as possible. Armenian didn’t even offer their humanitarian aid to Georgia. Even issues connected with Armenian citizens were solved in a very poor manner. They didn’t even provide free of charge transportation of RA citizens to Armenia,” says Yenokyan.