As we know, the relations between the radical opposition and the West worsened just after the head of the OSCE organization for democratic institutions and human rights monitoring mission Gerd Arens published the preliminary report of their observation mission. The document, despite the serious expectations of the radical opposition, had a provision, which seriously disappointed the opposition. The conclusion of the report writing that the February 19 presidential election mainly proceeded in compliance with the responsibilities taken and the standards of the OSCE and Euro Union undermined the plans of the opposition at once and meanwhile discovered the real post-election goals of the western institutions. Since that day the West and the mentioned institutions have been criticized in the opposition media and blamed of “dual standards”, “racism and fascism”, “bringing up a new Sadam in Armenia” and other sins. This critical approach to the West did not change even after the adoption of the PACE #1609 resolution on post-election processes. Even there was another negative tendency; according to the definition given during Ter-Petrosyan’s Pan-Armenian second congress, “that poor definition which is going from document to document” stating that “the elections proceeded in compliance with the responsibilities and standards of the PACE and Euro Union”, in fact, not only “legitimized the violated election in Armenia at once and without prejudice”, but in fact also grounded the violence of the authorities in the post-election period. Even though the anti-Western speech of Ter-Petrosyan at first view did not differ much from the previous estimations, there was something in the speech which is due to attention. In his speech he specified who the opposition leaders mean by saying “West.” “By saying West first of all I mean the European institutions, Euro Union and OSCE, where Armenia has membership and has taken responsibilities,” said the first president of Armenia and specified the target of the opposition’s critics. This definition specifies the geopolitical priorities of the opposition. The first target is of course the United States. Levon Ter-Petrosyan, as Putin says, “separated cutlets from flies”, thus he separated the US from Europe. It wouldn’t be right to think that giving such a “card blanche” is stipulated by the electoral processes in Armenia only and comparatively stricter attitude of the US toward the new regime in Armenia. Furthermore, in fact the US recognized the election in Armenia almost in the same manner as the European institutions did. In this case it would be more logical to say that Ter-Petrosyan’s political force is trying to keep the western powers under pressure and build geopolitical bridges between the Western pole and the U.S. Meanwhile, Ter-Petrosyan says that even he can have some influence on the economic and political stances of America. The proof is the fact that during the recent congress organized by the opposition Levon Ter-Petrosyan petitioned the US government not to suspend the Millennium Challenges program in Armenia. At first glance it seems that this step is targeted at the internal consumers and to get some political dividends. However, we believe that the first president, who is playing in the American field, did a great favor for the US government with his announcement. The latter got the opportunity both to keep “its image” and “by satisfying the petitions of people” return to Armenia, thus having more influence on political processes. This opportunity of the US to return to Armenia gives it an opportunity to be an alternative of the Russian military and political dominance. Even more, in the recent period there is some competition for having more economic influence on Armenia. It is not by chance that during the recent period Armenia has started to cooperate with China, Russia, Iran and Arabic countries more actively.
However, the geopolitical ambitions of the opposition are not limited only with the US, which has been “separated from the West” with Ter-Petrosyan’s good hand.
It is very strange that Ter-Petrosyan is criticizing the West and looking for guilty parties in Europe, but has been abstaining from criticizing the government of our incumbent and former ally Russia. By the way, it is a very strange coincidence that Ter-Petrosyan’s anti-European announcements (by the way, the Georgian opposition’s announcements are like that too), and specifically the critics addressed at the OSCE, are almost the same as the critics addressed at the same institutions by different high ranking officials of Russia. For comparison let’s mention that since 2004 Russia is presenting the OSCE as “a tool serving for the interests of separate countries and groups of countries”. Even the foreign affairs ministry of Russia presented a project entitled “OSCE reformation routes map”. Russia and its CIS allies (Armenia inclusively) developed a draft for OSCE resolution aimed at limiting the powers of the organization for democratic institutions and human rights because its activities were governed by “dual standards”, “were unprincipled”, “governed by the interests of separate states”, etc. Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who is known as a pro-western politician, describes the activities of the above mentioned institutions in the following manner: “It is logical that if our country has taken certain responsibilities against those organizations, it is supposed that those organizations have taken responsibilities against our society as well, which means that they shall provide security, democratic liberties and civic rights for our society. Unfortunately the experience shows that the mentioned organizations fail to implement effective control over the responsibilities of the Armenian government, and, especially, to follow their responsibilities connected with our society.” It means that the opposition leader is not only staying neutral to Russia, but also in some manner supports the policy of the Russian government. It is surprising that the same thing can be said about the U.S. as well. According to Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the U.S., which doesn’t belong to the “betrayer” West any more, has gained not only political and image dividends, but also has gained an ally (the Armenian radical opposition), which can criticize the European countries playing a serious geopolitical role. In a word, it is not excluded that the radical opposition of Armenia has adopted its main geopolitical vectors for now, which are located in between the common interests of counterpart U.S. and at least non-enemy Russia. As for the European institutions, which have “lost their hope”, definitely till the PACE June session the opposition will stay critical to it (it may be helpful before applying to the European court). Also, the positive attitude to the U.S. and partly to Russia will be presented as an alternative to the “discriminated” European institutions.