While the new prime minister is busy with making revolution into his staff, the economy is stagnating. Furthermore, while the officials in charge of the economic policy are speaking difficult economic terms which are hard to understand, prices are going up.
Tigran Sargsyan is not guilty in this fact because it is the responsibility of the Central Bank, and Tigran Sargsyan does not work at the CB since last month. The prices are increased, as it is said, “under the pressure of external inflation growth.” If the prices of grain and sugar are growing, it means that the prices of these products in the international markets have grown as well. If the prices of all products are increased, it means that the price of gas has increased as well. As for such external pressure, it is Russia’s fault.
This is the approach advocated by the government. Now let’s discuss the issue in another context and see whether the government is guilty in this situation or no. There is a Russian movie, in which one of the actors is stealing cars to help children, and during court proceedings the judge says, “Certainly he is guilty…but, he is not guilty.” We can say the same about the government of our country too. Of course they are guilty because they have hidden the truth in the past. A philosopher said that the biggest lie is not saying the truth in time. Certainly they knew that the price of propane would be increased in May though they are trying to explain that increase in some way. As for drivers, they don’t care about any excuse because before that they used to pay 1,000 dram, now they have to pay 2,000 dram for gas. There is a joke when someone is asked whether he knows that the price of gas has been increased and he says that he doesn’t care about it because he always pays 1,000 dram for it. The government is guilty in it and it is trying to make everyone think in the same way and it is their fault because they haven’t told our citizens that prices would be increased. They may also say that those who wanted had the opportunity to find out everything because there were many publications. However, during the pre-election campaign everyone was interested in such issues but indeed no one discussed such possibilities and all they were promising a good life only. It is not honest. If they are promising that people will have twice more incomes, it means that they should also tell them that the prices will be increased as well. Prices have started growing already and even now the life expenditures have grown. Despite these changes our expectations are still negative. For instance, you can see someone selling potato at twice more expensive prices than on the previous day, and if you ask him why, he will say that now he pays more for gas and thus he has to sell his products at more expensive prices. Farmers don’t care about any excuse because they care about their future; they will have to pay more money for their current expenses, more transport expenses for their children, etc. How can this farmer compensate his current expenses? Of course on the account of the increased price of his potato. The same example concerns others as well because they have to increase the prices of their products in order to compensate their expenses. These are the negative expectations that people have been worried about. The government knew about this before the election as well, but they were keeping silence. The fourth article of the state budget for 2008 writes the following: “The Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia shall follow the policy of targeting 4+1,5% inflation within 12 months in its decision making processes and policies in 2008.” This means that during this year the inflation rate cannot exceed 5.5 per cent. The budget was adopted on November 28, 2007. In fact, at that time the government, CB and MPs knew that the price of gas would be increased on May 1, but they believed that inflation would not exceed 5.5%. However, at present, even according to official statistics information, inflation exceeds 6%. According to the national statistics services, during the period of January-April 2008 the index of consumer product prices made 106 per cent compared to that of December 2007. However, the government is keeping silence now too, i.e. it does not inform us about what will happen to us. We know that on January 1, 2009, Russia will increase the propane prices and will charge about $165 per cubic meter instead of $110. In one year the agriculture field will be taxed as well, which is the requirement of the World Trade Organization. Even though the government has defined some limits on capacities in agricultural business, this change will result in inflation as well. These changes will take place in 2008-2013, i.e. in the period before the next presidential election (if there isn’t any extraordinary election). The promises they have given concern these five years and they say during this term we will be able to buy apartments, cars, and will have twice more income… Certainly it is real that incomes may increase twice during these five years, but inflation is growing so rapidly that at the end of this term this increase of incomes cannot compensate the inflation growth. In addition, if we take into consideration the fact that the Millennium Challenges program may be suspended, termination of simplified tax policy, instability in the business environment, possible decrease of foreign and inner investments, it is clear that the situation in Armenia is dangerous and there may be a social discontent here. In such case everyone will suffer despite their vote during the elections, even the person who was playing the Duduk not far from Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s house will suffer. Serzh Sargsyan thanked Robert Kocharyan in his inauguration speech for the achievements of the past 10 years, however, the reality is that we are in a dangerous situation now. In 2006 many people said that we should not give strategic companies to Russians, but the government did. Now, the reality is that during Kocharyan’s tenure the price of gas did not grow, but now, during Serzh Sargsyan’s tenure it will grow in two phases – on May 1 and later on January 1, 2009.
Are we in a deadlock? Armenians never lose the hope. Once we have experienced hyperinflation and we could go out of that situation. Now the situation is more complicated because the society is divided into two parts and is not united. Those people are mistaken who think that the numerous participants of the opposition rallies and their supporters are impatiently waiting for the moment when the country will collapse in order to say that they were right. The opposition understands that it doesn’t need to ruin everything in order to take the power because later they will have to leave too as no one wants to govern ruins.
Tigran Sargsyan says that it is very important what people are expecting from the state. If people see that the authorities are doing the same and embezzling the wealth of the country, if they don’t punish violators and let their guys do whatever they want, if people see such violence, they will either become criminals or leave the country. But if it is the vice versa, there is belief, if people trust, everything will change and people will understand everything, look for jobs and will be sure that the state will protect them and in the future no one will come and obligate them to leave their businesses.
Fake promises and shows don’t inspire hope, they should do their best and real job. They can’t inspire hope by bringing unqualified people to the government and imprisoning qualified people. They can’t say romantic things and not to do anything because people see and understand everything well and will be more disappointed in the future. All what they need now is being honest to people and themselves, the other problems can be solved easily. They don’t have much time and they should do their best. While Tigran Sargsyan is trying to change people, one of the people who should follow the law is violating the law when adopting “the program of reformations” and presses a button which he doesn’t have the right to do. Will they start those changes from explaining to that government official that he should not do such things and should keep his finger away from the buttons in the parliament? What if this training lasts long and is useless? The government should understand that time is very important and instead of changing people and explaining things to them they can bring qualified people and work with them, some of which maybe are in the opposition. “Our competition privilege will be the potential of the Armenians united in the entire world,” emphasized Serzh Sargsyan in his pre-election program. As for the Armenians who are united all over the world, there are people among them who are criticizing the government but carry about our country more than many of those who are pressing buttons instead of others.