Although the number one issue of the inner-governmental circles of Armenia is to overcome the post-electoral “riddle” and crisis as soon as possible it is still noticeable that a rough competition is proceeding within the government to pick a head of the cabinet for the government. Interestingly, the competition for the Prime Minister’s position proceeds not only covertly but also pretty overtly through media. As of Serzh Sargsyan he has so far avoided to define the parameters or criteria by which he is going to choose a Prime-Minister. Despite this the messages that are arriving from the government and the media outlets show the directions, based on which the Prime-Minister’s candidate is going to be determined. We think that at present two basic models of the governmental elite will be chosen: a. the Prime-Minister directly represents the political majority in the NA, b. they are choosing the so-called “buffer” version of the Prime-Minister. Of course, there is a great temptation from among the republican circles to pick a Prime-Minister from among the loyal circle. There is a quite tense complaint among the republicans about the willingness of the president-elect to form the government based on the quadrilateral coalition agreement. In this regard the republicans and the Prosperous Armenia representatives, who have formed the majority in the parliament after the parliamentary elections 2007, have become quite confused about the big “appetite” of the ARF and especially the Legal State. Nevertheless, from among the loyalists of Serzh Sargsyan these are the people, who are mentioned to be nominated for the Prime-Minister’s post – Minister if the Territorial Administration of Armenia, head of Serzh Sargsyan’s campaign office Hovik Abrahamyan and the head of the Republican Faction in the NA Karen Karapetyan. Perhaps the possible decision of not nominating someone from the Republicans will be stipulated by the fact to maintain the status quo within the RPA. The supportive fact of the second version is that the president-elect like never ever has felt the necessity of appointing someone Prime-Minister, who would be able to recover the lost trust to the people, who have become as disappointed of the government as in 1996. The new Prime-Minister must also play a role of a buffer between the government and the depressed society. In a similar situation in 1996 in the political arena in a quite unexcited manner someone new, who was very polite and nice in manners appeared, who was partly able to reduce the tension in the society. That person was Prime Minister Armen Sargsyan. After awhile he appeared in the center of attention of the part of the society, who was extremely dissatisfied with Ter-Petrosyan’s regime. He really was able to embalm the image of an improving government. By the way the same functions (of course much more expanded) were in 1997 entrusted to Robert Kocharyan, who at that time still had a high rating in Armenia. It was not an accident that the name of the same Armen Sargsyan is mentioned as one of the most potential candidates for the Prime-Minister but not as openly and confidently as in 1997 because the “kinder surprise” won’t be accepted as in past. The present buffer candidate must like never ever imply a geopolitical component and Armen Sargsyan, who is quite accepted and approved by the west and specifically by Great Britain, will hardly deserve the approval of Russia. The image of a person, who is able to implement systematic changes in the country, who is far from the corrupt system of Armenia and most importantly rich enough is connected with the name of the richest people of Russia, the director of the Troyka Dialog Ruben Vardanyan. The latter on one hand, has quite tight links with the Russian governmental and business elite and on the other hand, as claimed by certain sources, his businesses have quite serious western sources. Of course, in Armenia and especially within the governmental circle the appointment of Vardanyan seems not quite possible because they don’t see the motivation why Vardanyan would submit this important post at such a crucial period of Armenia’s history and in the conditions of such a tense situation in the country. Nevertheless, let us note that there was time when the same was being said about a more influential Russian oligarch Kakha Bendukidze, which however, didn’t stop him from submitting a much worse post in the government of Mikhail Sahakashvili – the post of the Minister of Economy of Georgia. In Russia, as they say the orders of the boss are not being discussed. This becomes more important when we remember that there was time when Vardanyan didn’t hide his wish and intention to submit a serious and key position in the governance of Armenia. At least, let us remember that one of the key players of the Armenia 2020 ambitious project was Vardanyan. At first sight the name of the director of the ArmRusGazArd Karen Karapetyan is not discussed that actively, however he is also considered one of the least corrupt officials in Armenia and the basic perception is that he can also submit the role of the buffer Prime-Ministers. Despite the fact that during the past 10 years Karapetyan has always been in the governmental and business elite of the country his name however has never mentioned in any serious stories. Moreover, he has achieved the image of a skillful businessmen-manager (not even an oligarch) in the country. As of Karapetyan’s links with the outside world it’s worth mentioning that he has close connections with the elite of the Russian GazProm. He also has close relations with high-rank government officials of Russia. It is hard to consider the chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Tigran Sargsyan one of the buffer candidates of the Prime-Minister. One of the main reasons is that his name mildly said is connected with the weird behavior of the foreign currency in Armenia. And the banks of Armenia, which mostly rely on the foreign monetary remittances, create not as much economical as social problems for the citizens of Armenia and thus exacerbate the tension in the society. The actor with such an image is of course not the best candidate for this position. He cannot play a very good role for a “kinder surprise” in Armenia. On the other hand, Tigran Karapetyan and the Central Bank he manages, deserves the highest assessment of international structures with its institutional and organizational capacity. The international structures claim that the CB with its legislative and normative standards almost fully conforms to international criteria. It is also no secret that the CB has always tried to adjust its policy with the IMF and the World Bank requirements and recommendations. That is the reason why the mass media and many other political circles believe that Tigran Sargsyan is an easy “digestible” person for the west. They believe that Sargsyan will be able to relieve the tension created between the Armenian government and the west after the presidential elections in Armenia. As it’s known Serzh Sargsyan has started the “circulation” of Tigran Sargsyan even before the presidential elections, when quite unexpectedly Tigran Sargsyan accompanied the Prime-Minister to the US. That is when the rumors of the possible candidacy of Tigran Sargsyan for the Prime-Minister’s position have started to circulate. It is also not excluded (even quite possible) that the Prime-Minister is envisioning to appoint Tigran Sargsyan for the newly elected President’s chief of staff, who will be endowed with expanded political and economical powers. That way the President will be able to fully control the vivid and complicated quadrilateral coalition. That will become possible through a smart and experienced chief of staff. This model of management and control resembles the Russian management model, where the traditionally powerful chief of staff of the president (let us at least remember Alexander Voloshin during Yeltsin’s presidency and Dmitry Medvedev during Putin’s presidency) has no less powers and role in the governance of the country than the Prime Minister. In the event of this model not only the international ties of Tigran Sargsyan will work on the president’s behalf but also the former NDU member’s ties with the current opposition representatives. As a conclusion we can mention that the future president faces not only selection of persons for the post of the Prime Minister but also operative management model.
