After the color revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan many politicians, local and international analysts and political scientists forecast that the next color revolution in the post-soviet territory is going to take place in Armenia.
These predictions were made based on the foreign factor. Regardless of how the opposition insists that it can change the government on its own without the foreign support it will be impossible with only inner resources. It was obvious that in Georgia, Ukraine the change of power was determined by the international community. Numerous governmental and non-governmental structures are occupied with the technologies of color revolutions. Let us mention that in the post-Soviet states the revolutions were organized mostly after the presidential and parliamentary elections. During color revolutions the role of youth, women, various international organizations and local NGOs is also significant. As they say the young people are the architects of all revolutions. Days ago the head of the investigators’ mission occupied by the investigation of the incidents of March 1 stated that the opposition representatives have applied clear methods of affecting the psychology of the protestors. “During the irregularities in Yerevan clear technologies were applied, which had been previously applied in other states during color revolutions. However, as of Armenia, they took into account our national peculiarities,” he mentioned and brought clear examples. The investigators’ group is sure that these methods are well-aware to the history and political science. Those were almost analogously applied in other states – Georgia, Ukraine, etc. “These facts are confirmed by the analysts, who have also done certain surveys in other countries as well,” said the head of the investigators’ group. Almost all the international structures expressed their negative attitude to the incidents on March 1. The list includes the OSCE, Council of Europe Pace, UN, EU, etc. Recently the management of the Millennium Challenge Corporation and the White House also expressed their stern opinion about those processes. Yesterday the European Parliament joined the list. So what is the reason that those structures are paying so much attention to the processes in Armenia? The issue must be discussed in the regional, foreign policy and economic context. At present let’s just mention two important circumstances. At present for super states this region is very important. For the west the issue of the safety of the oil pipeline is very important. That is the reason why they are so interested in the fast regulation of the NKR conflict. We should also pay attention to the fact that the management of Georgia’s railroads are given for rent for 89 years to the British Parkfield Investment Ltd. The west has an evident interest to this railroad. According to the Regnum, the newly elected RA president, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan stated that the fact that Armenia doesn’t participate in the Baku-Jeyhan-Tbilisi project is an omission of foreign policy. In his words this project could have also included Armenia if we gave up the NKR. As of the project regarding the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalak-Tbilisi-Baku Sargsyan said that he doesn’t agree that in the event of the implementation of this project Armenia will suffer. “This is railroad. If need we can use it. Serious analysis shows that this project is aimed not against Armenia but against greater states of the world.” In the meantime he mentioned that it would of course be very good if it was possible to exploit the Kars-Gyumri railway. But if it’s not going to be used it’s better to have one nearby. The Prime Minister also mentioned that the possible economic partnership between Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan and its expansion to a political partnership is not that definite. Among global political issues it’s worth emphasizing the relations between Iran and the US. At present Iran is conducting parliamentary elections. We shouldn’t ever forget the interests of Russia, USA, UK and Turkey to this country. Therefore, the complicated internal political processes of Armenia and in general the difficult time that Armenia is facing, the slumped mood of people in regard of the incidents of March 1 comes from the exact interest of the international community, which is quite natural. But here Armenia should also pay attention to its interests. And both the government and opposition of Armenia must play a significant role.