Tactical adjustment before the referendum

28/09/2005 Rafael TEYMURAZYAN

In about two months the referendum for the constitutional amendments
will take place. Meanwhile, the opposition announces that it is going
to make a referendum for Robert Kocharyan’s confidence instead of the
constitutional amendments. They are following the well-known motives of
the fable of Krilov.

At first, they split one more time, and now they cannot come to a
conclusion whether to participate in the referendum and say ”no” or
to boycott the referendum. From this point of view, the Armenian
opposition can be divided into three groups. One group sugggests on
saying “no” to the referendum, the second group suggests on boycotting
the referendum, and the third group hasn’t been able to decide which
one of the above mentioned ways is the right one. The political party
led by Aram Karapetyan, “New Times” (NT), is in the first group, which
recently made announcements to go and say “no” to the amandments. But
what is going to happen after this? The head of NT answered our
question, saying: “The group of the people, who say “no” to the
amendments, will ask the coalition and the president to resign in an
orderly fashion”. About two weeks ago, the “Liberal Progressive Party
of Armenia” (LPPA) political party made an announcement just like this,
calling to boycott the referendum. It is interesting whether the
people, who think that way and are of the opinion, that the authorities
are going to falsify the results of the forthcoming referendum, don’t
think, that acting like this, they will make it easier for the
authorities to falsify (of course if they are going to falsify). The
head of LPPA, Hovhannes Hovhannisyan thinks, that the authorities are
going to falsify the results of the referendum. “The overstated marks,
shown by the authorities during the presidential elections in 2003, are
now going against them”,- he says. He says, that people will not go to
the polling stations in case of boycott and there will not be any
voting, thus not leaving any chances for the authorities to falsify the
results of the election. According to the head of LPPA, there is no
serious difference between “no” and boycott, the only thing is that the
boycott is a more active way to say “no”. “The goal is to hold back the
referendum, and it is clear, that that will not happen. It is clear,
that 800.000 people will not call for it, 1,2 million people will not
go to polling stations to vote. It’s just that there are not so many
Armenians in Armenia physically”.

“Republic” and “National Unity” (NU) political parties have not decided
the way they are going to participate in the referendum yet. The
members of “Republic” party think, that it is necessary to say “no” to
this. “It can be realized in two ways: either we can go and actively
say “no” or boycott this referendum. We think, that the difference of
these two ways is tactical difference. Our party hasn’t decided which
one of these two ways is better for us yet”, – says Suren Surenyants, a
representative of this party. The representatives of NU still think
about which way is going to be better for them not to let the
authorities make falsifications. According to Suren Surenyants, it is
very important for them to mobilize the public and to present the
program of fast changes in the constitutional amendment part of
democratic revolution as an alternative for the referendum
falsification pocess, and in parralel to this, try to realize it. “When
choosing between one of these two ways, we will draw our attention to
which way is better fo us to mobilize the society for organizing a
democratic revolution”,- says Suren Surenyants. So, how do they imagine
this “no” or boycott? What is going to happen later? “If we say “no” or
boycott the referendum, we tell the society not to go to the polling
stations and come to the “Freedom” square to make our boycott come true
and to protect our interests. We will take action after the boycott,
because if the society doesn’t call for the real situation of the
referendum, doesn’t say, that by saying “no”, it says “no” to the
present authorities” too, the authorities will not leave”,-says
H.Hovhannisyan. S. Surenyants notes, that in parralel to the
constitutional amendments they will take other actions too and the
purpose for doing that is to start a democratic revolution in the
country. “That process is going to be our main purpose. We will
consider the false process of the constitutional amendments, which is
encouraged by the authorities, as a legal reason for organizing the
mentioned program. The active “no” and the boycott will not have any
results if they are not backed up with some actions”,- says the
representative of “Republic” party. We wonder if it is not easier for
the people, who are interested in the positive results of the
referendum, to organize everything, in case when different branches of
opposition have different opinions (though the purpose is the same).
The head of LPPA, H.Hovhannisyan assures, that all the branches of the
opposition will get together and the sooner the referendum happens, the
more the opposition will get together and share opinions. In a word, to
boycott or not to boycott? This is the problem. One thing is decided
for sure: in any case the oppositon promises to take some actions.